Rugby predictions &amp; analysis

Bordeaux-Bègles v Bath

The reigning champions on a 13-match Champions Cup winning streak host a Bath side missing Spencer, Redpath, Ojomoh and Cokanasiga. Home edge and back-line firepower tip a heavyweight semi-final.

Bordeaux by 12

68%

Challenge CupSemi-Final

Montpellier v Dragons

Montpellier are 3rd in the Top 14 and hitting 40+ at home weekly; Dragons are 14th in the URC and were thumped 47–7 by the Bulls a fortnight ago. The Welsh side's knockout heroics end at the GGL Stadium.

Montpellier by 27

90%

2 May 2026

Champions CupSemi-Final

Leinster v RC Toulon

Leinster were perfect in the pool and have rolled through the knockouts at home. Toulon own the historical H2H but the squad and venue gap is too large.

Leinster by 14

80%

Challenge CupSemi-Final

Ulster v Exeter Chiefs

Ulster unbeaten at Kingspan in the Challenge Cup and put 52 on Exeter the last time these sides met. Slade's threat is real, but the venue story is overwhelming.

Fijian Drua v Highlanders

The Highlanders are 4–0 in this fixture all-time — but every meeting has been in NZ. Suva heat and a desperate Drua flip the maths home.

Moana Pasifika v Blues

Blues won the Round 5 fixture 43–7 and arrive on a three-game winning run; Moana have lost nine straight conceding 42 a game.

Queensland Reds v Brumbies

Two wounded Australian sides collide at Suncorp. The Reds get the home edge, the better backrow matchup, and have already beaten the Brumbies in Canberra this season — just enough to edge a tight derby.

1 May 2026

Hurricanes v Crusaders

Hurricanes' 41-points-per-game home form against an inconsistent Crusaders side that's lost 4 of 5 on the road. The Wellington H2H is a worry, but the form gap is too large.

NSW Waratahs v Western Force

Sua'ali'i's return at outside centre tilts a must-win Aussie derby toward a Waratahs side that is 4-from-4 at Allianz — but the Force are coming off a Crusaders upset and shouldn't be written off.

26 April 2026

Highlanders v Moana Pasifika

Forsyth Barr's indoor roof, a 6–1 H2H, and Moana's eight-match losing streak make this a must-take for the Highlanders. The hosts are wobbly but Moana concede 47 points a game — a bonus-point win is the floor.

Chiefs v Fijian Drua

The Chiefs are a title contender and FMG Stadium has been one of the toughest venues in the competition. The Drua can blow up anyone on their day — but at Hamilton, the Chiefs' title-chasing squad is a mismatch.

25 April 2026

Lions v Connacht

The Lions have won five straight at Ellis Park — including a 54–12 beating of Glasgow — and Connacht arrive on tour-week-two after a 45–22 Challenge Cup loss in Montpellier. Altitude, form and fatigue all stack one way.

Stormers v Glasgow Warriors

1st v 2nd at DHL Stadium — Glasgow lead the table by four points but arrive on the second leg of a South African double-up, six days after a 54–12 battering at Ellis Park. The Stormers’ Bok front row and Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s kicking game should punish a Glasgow side running on fumes.

Benetton v Leinster

Leinster are 23–2–1 in the H2H and have never lost at Monigo in 13 attempts. Benetton shipped 45 at home to Munster last week — with a Champions Cup semi eight days away, Cullen wants a clean bonus-point win and should get it.

Munster v Ulster

Irish derby at Thomond Park with playoff seeding on the line — Munster 6th, Ulster 5th, both needing the win. Home record and recent H2H tip the scales; expect a low-scoring arm-wrestle.

Scarlets v Bulls

Bulls are 8th and fighting for a top-eight playoff spot; Scarlets 14th and done. The tour-fatigue factor exists but the squad and set-piece gap is too wide to bridge at Parc y Scarlets.

Hurricanes v Brumbies

Sky Stadium hosts a genuine top-half clash — the Hurricanes lead the table and bring the best attack in the competition against an ambitious Brumbies side that's the best of the Australians.

Blues v Reds

Eden Park has been the Blues' fortress for decades. The Reds are a genuinely good side this season but their away record is soft — 38–15 home win reads about right.

24 April 2026

Cardiff v Ospreys

Cardiff's top-eight campaign is on the line — an Ospreys side with one URC away win all season and nothing at stake is the perfect opponent to right the January derby loss. Friday-night Arms Park, Sheedy's boot, and the set-piece edge.

Edinburgh v Sharks

Sharks' Springbok-laden pack should exploit an Edinburgh side that has shipped 206 points in their last five URC outings. Tour fatigue and a historically tight H2H keep it honest, but the forward mismatch is decisive.

Zebre Parma v Dragons

A Lanfranchi rematch seven days after Dragons stole a 35–32 Challenge Cup win in Parma — but this time Zebre have the motivation and Dragons have one eye on next week's Challenge Cup semi-final.

Crusaders v Waratahs

Apollo Projects is the Waratahs' 0-for-12 graveyard since 2009, and the H2H is 9–2 Crusaders in the last 11. An unusually 5W-5L Crusaders side still has more than enough at home against a Waratahs team 0-5 on the road.

18 April 2026

Stormers v Connacht

Stormers are 5–0 at DHL in the URC this season and 4–1 in the H2H sequence. Connacht’s five-match run is real — but their road record and a 10-hour flight tell the truer story.

Lions v Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow are the URC’s best side, but a 10,000km trip six days after a Champions Cup QF and 1,753m of altitude level the ground. Lions are on a four-match win streak at Ellis Park — and Glasgow have never won here.

Scarlets v Cardiff Rugby

A Welsh derby between two teams trending downward. Cardiff are in freefall despite a superior squad; Scarlets are miserable on the road but dangerous at Parc y Scarlets — and they’ve won the last two meetings.

Benetton v Munster

Munster should edge their third straight week on tour — Treviso is historically awkward for Irish sides, but the visitors’ set piece and playoff desperation decide a tight one.

Ospreys v Sharks

Sharks’ international pack should overpower a faltering Ospreys side — but Bridgend is tight, Welsh weather is a leveller, and tour fatigue after the Connacht Challenge Cup loss keeps the margin honest.

Chiefs v Hurricanes

A genuine title-race pick 'em — the unbeaten-in-six Hurricanes travel to a Chiefs side who’ve won three straight. Home ground and McKenzie’s boot tip it marginally Chiefs’ way.

Brumbies v Fijian Drua

Brumbies host a Drua side coming off a 69–26 thrashing in Christchurch. Canberra has been a black hole for the Drua — 0 wins from 4 — and McKellar’s Wallaby-laden pack should extract revenge for the Suva loss.

Western Force v Crusaders

The Crusaders have won 9 of 13 meetings and bring a stacked All Blacks core to Perth. The Force are 0–4 at home in 2026 — travel helps, but not enough.

17 April 2026

Dragons v Bulls

Bulls are 4–0 in URC meetings by an average of 28 points and arrive with a Springbok-heavy XV. A Dragons side on a 5-match URC winless run offers almost no resistance at Rodney Parade.

13 April 2026

Tuks v NWU-Pukke

The top two meet in the final at fortress LC de Villiers. NWU-Pukke are the only team to have beaten Tuks this season, but that was in Potchefstroom — Tuks are unbeaten at home and their defensive edge should prove decisive.

Tuks by 7

62%

12 April 2026

Bordeaux-Bègles v Stade Toulousain

Bordeaux's Chaban-Delmas fortress is the difference — they've won 3 straight home meetings against Toulouse, including last season's Champions Cup semi-final. The reigning champions are ruthless at home, but Dupont and Ntamack ensure this won't be a walkover.

Bordeaux-Bègles by 11

65%

Benetton v Exeter Chiefs

A first-ever meeting, with Benetton's perfect Challenge Cup record and Monigo home advantage narrowly edging Exeter's superior domestic pedigree.

Benetton by 5

58%

11 April 2026

Glasgow Warriors v RC Toulon

Glasgow should win comfortably at Scotstoun. Their perfect pool record, extraordinary home form (12 wins from 13), and Toulon's domestic freefall make the Warriors clear favourites.

Glasgow by 11

68%

Leinster v Sale Sharks

Leinster are overwhelming favourites at the Aviva. They've won 13 of 15, dominated every pool match, and Sale have been dismantled by every elite side they've faced this season.

Leinster by 27

92%

Montpellier v Connacht

Montpellier's GGL Stadium fortress is decisive. They average 38 points per game at home and won the reverse fixture 33–31 — but Connacht's six-match winning streak makes this a genuine contest.

Montpellier by 11

72%

Zebre Parma v Dragons

A genuine toss-up between the URC's bottom two, both riding surprise Challenge Cup upsets. Zebre's dominant home H2H record in Parma (8-1-2) tips the balance narrowly.

Moana Pasifika v Chiefs

The Chiefs are 8–0 all-time against Moana Pasifika and hold decisive advantages in form, squad quality, and standings. A comfortable bonus-point win for the visitors.

Fijian Drua v Western Force

Home advantage is everything in this fixture — the Drua have won their last two home meetings by a combined 56 points. Churchill Park heat and Fijian flair should prove too much.

Hurricanes v Blues

A genuine 1 v 2 title clash. The Hurricanes' devastating attack — 264 points in 6 games — meets a Blues side on a four-game winning streak. Home advantage tips it, but the Blues won in Wellington last year.

Queensland Reds v Crusaders

The Crusaders' All Black-laden squad, dominant head-to-head in Brisbane, and surging form make them clear favourites against a Reds side that has conceded 94 points in their last two outings.

Crusaders by 15

74%

10 April 2026

Bath v Northampton Saints

The tightest matchup of the Champions Cup play-offs. Bath's home advantage at The Rec and their status as the tournament's top scorers give them the edge, but Northampton's 7–3 H2H record makes this a genuine toss-up.

Bath by 6

62%

Ulster v Stade Rochelais

Ulster's Kingspan fortress and La Rochelle's dire away form make the Irish province clear favourites. La Rochelle have conceded 40+ points four times this season — consistency is their enemy.

Highlanders v Brumbies

The Brumbies should win in Dunedin despite their recent wobble. Four straight H2H wins, superior set piece, and deeper squad depth overcome the Highlanders' home advantage.

Brumbies by 11

66%

5 April 2026

Bordeaux-Bègles v Leicester Tigers

The reigning champions are a class apart. Bordeaux topped their group with a perfect 4/4 record and have won 12 consecutive Champions Cup matches — Leicester's 1 win from 4 in the pool stage offers little reason for optimism in southwest France.

Bordeaux-Bègles by 24

Leinster v Edinburgh

Leinster topped their pool with a perfect 4/4 record and have won their last 6 meetings against Edinburgh by an average of 19 points. Edinburgh have the worst point difference of any qualifying team — this should be comfortable for the hosts.

Leinster by 24

92%

Stade Francais Paris v Dragons

A mismatch on paper. Stade Francais are 3rd in the Top 14 and in devastating form — 152 points in their last three league games. The Dragons, 15th in the URC with two wins all season, have no answer to Carbonel and co.

Stade Francais by 24

90%

Zebre v Section Paloise

Section Paloise — 2nd in the Top 14 with serious international firepower — should be far too strong for a Zebre side rooted to the bottom of the URC. Pau's pack dominance and halfback quality will be decisive.

Section Paloise by 21

4 April 2026

Bath v Saracens

Bath have been the most prolific team in the Champions Cup and are unbeatable at The Rec. They demolished Saracens 62–15 at this ground three weeks ago, and the form gap is only widening.

Bath by 20

85%

Glasgow Warriors v Bulls

Glasgow's perfect pool campaign and fortress Scotstoun record make them heavy favourites against a Bulls side that conceded 177 points in four European games. Springbok star power alone won't be enough.

Glasgow by 14

75%

Harlequins v Sale Sharks

Harlequins have been devastating in Europe — 184 points in four pool games and the best PD in the tournament. Sale arrive on a five-match losing streak and look a side in freefall.

Harlequins by 17

73%

RC Toulon v Stormers

A coin-flip tie decided by venue. Toulon's Félix Mayol fortress and their 24–14 win over the Stormers in Cape Town give them the slightest edge in what should be a brutally tight knockout contest.

Toulon by 4

56%

Stade Toulousain v Bristol Bears

Toulouse at the Ernest-Wallon is one of the toughest assignments in club rugby. Their home form is devastating, their squad is loaded with French internationals, and Bristol's recent 6-match losing streak offers little confidence for the visitors.

Toulouse by 21

85%

Benetton v Cardiff Rugby

Benetton's perfect Challenge Cup pool record and Monigo home advantage should prove decisive against a Cardiff side arriving off a bruising South African tour with an 0-2 away European record.

Benetton by 10

70%

Exeter Chiefs v Munster

Exeter's Sandy Park fortress and set-piece dominance make them clear favourites. Munster's dreadful away record -- losses at Glasgow, Ulster, Bath, Toulon, and on their South African tour -- undermines any optimism despite their European pedigree.

Exeter by 10

72%

Montpellier v Perpignan

Montpellier are 5th in Top 14 with a devastating home record; Perpignan are 13th and struggling badly on the road. The quality gap is enormous — expect a comfortable home win.

Montpellier by 19

88%

Newcastle Red Bulls v Stade Rochelais

A massive mismatch on paper. La Rochelle — two-time Champions Cup winners dropped to the Challenge Cup — visit Kingston Park to face the Premiership's bottom club. Even a rotated La Rochelle side should have far too much quality.

La Rochelle by 24

85%

Ulster v Ospreys

Ulster have won seven straight against the Ospreys in Belfast by an average of 20 points. The Ospreys are in freefall with back-to-back away defeats — this is a fortress game Ulster should control from the start.

Chiefs v Waratahs

The Chiefs should control this at FMG Stadium Waikato. The Waratahs have lost their last three away games by wide margins, and the Chiefs haven’t lost at home to the Waratahs since 2014.

Super RugbyRound 702 Apr

Queensland Reds v Western Force

The Reds are heavy favourites at Suncorp Stadium, where the Force haven't won since 2017. Four wins from six for the hosts versus one from six for the visitors — this should be a comfortable home win with a bonus point.

3 April 2026

Northampton Saints v Castres Olympique

Northampton are unbeaten in seven home meetings against Castres, winning by an average of 19 points. Franklin's Gardens is a fortress this season, and Castres' away form offers little to suggest an upset.

Northampton by 21

90%

Connacht v Sharks

Connacht's five-match winning streak and dominant home H2H record make them favourites in Galway, but the Sharks' Springbok firepower ensures this will be a tightly contested knockout tie.

Super RugbyRound 702 Apr