URC 2025/26 · Round 15
Connacht
Ospreys
Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Championship Standings
Connacht sit 9th on 35 points — just inside the playoff conversation but needing wins to keep pace with the cluster above them. Ospreys are 10th on 29 points — six behind Connacht and fading after a deflating loss in Treviso last time out. Both sides need this one, but for the Ospreys it borders on must-win.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 13 | 10 | 3 | +171 | 50 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 13 | 10 | 3 | +120 | 46 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +97 | 42 |
| 4 |  Leinster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +45 | 41 |
| 5 |  Cardiff | 13 | 8 | 5 | −3 | 40 |
| 6 |  Munster | 13 | 8 | 5 | −22 | 39 |
| 7 |  Lions | 13 | 7 | 5 | +20 | 38 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 13 | 7 | 6 | +54 | 35 |
| 9 | Connacht | 13 | 6 | 7 | +3 | 35 |
| 10 | Ospreys | 13 | 5 | 6 | −25 | 29 |
| 11 |  Sharks | 13 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 29 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 13 | 5 | 6 | −53 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 13 | 4 | 9 | −52 | 23 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 13 | 4 | 8 | −69 | 21 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 13 | 2 | 8 | −67 | 20 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 13 | 2 | 11 | −187 | 12 |
Connacht
W4, L1Four straight URC wins — including a statement 26–19 victory at Kingspan last Friday — have transformed Connacht’s season. Pete Wilkins’ side are scoring freely, averaging over 25 points per game in this run, and that 15–10 grind against league-leaders Glasgow showed they can win ugly too. The only blemish is the Leinster defeat at home, but every team in the URC has a Leinster-shaped loss on their ledger.
Ospreys
W3, D1, L1The momentum the Ospreys built through home wins over Ulster, Dragons, and Cardiff has been punctured by that 31–19 loss in Treviso. The Lions draw at home (24–24 in R10) was another missed opportunity — two points dropped that could prove costly in the playoff race. Their record away from Swansea is the real concern: defeats at Glasgow, Munster, and now Benetton suggest Toby Booth’s side struggle to impose themselves on the road.
Head-to-Head in Galway
8 – 0 – 7
Connacht wins · Draws · Ospreys wins (15 meetings at this venue)
Connacht (8)This is one of the more evenly matched fixtures in URC history at this venue — Connacht lead 8–7 in Galway, but the Ospreys have won here before and won’t be fazed by the trip west. The reverse fixture this season was a 43–40 thriller in Swansea — the Ospreys edging an extraordinary 83-point shootout. Recent meetings in Galway have gone Connacht’s way, however, with wins in 2023 (34–26), 2021 (46–18), and 2019 (46–5).
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | URC | Ospreys 43–40 Connacht |
| Oct 2023 | URC | Connacht 34–26 Ospreys |
| Nov 2021 | URC | Connacht 46–18 Ospreys |
| Jun 2021 | Pro14 Rainbow Cup | Connacht 26–19 Ospreys |
| Jan 2021 | Pro14 | Connacht 20–26 Ospreys |
| Mar 2019 | Pro14 | Connacht 46–5 Ospreys |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Connacht 35 – Ospreys 22 in the last six meetings at this venue. The Ospreys’ only win in Galway in the last five years was a 26–20 result in January 2021.
Extended Form
Connacht8W, 7L
Wins: Ulster (26–19), Scarlets (31–14), Glasgow (15–10), Zebre (31–15), Benetton (26–15), Sharks (44–17), Montauban (75–14, CC), Black Lion (52–0, CC). Losses: Leinster (23–34), Bulls (27–28), Montpellier (31–33, CC), Ulster (24–29), Dragons (28–48), Cardiff (8–14), Edinburgh (21–31).
Connacht at the Dexcom are a different proposition to Connacht on the road. Eight wins from 15 across all competitions, with some emphatic scorelines — 75–14 vs Montauban, 52–0 vs Black Lion, 44–17 vs Sharks. When the Galway crowd is behind them, Connacht’s attack can be devastating.
Ospreys5W, 7L
Wins: Edinburgh (27–19), Dragons (33–14), Connacht (24–21, CC at Ospreys), Zebre (28–10, CC), Cheetahs (38–17, CC). Losses: Benetton (19–31), Munster (17–24), Glasgow (18–29), Leinster (14–42), Bulls (16–31), Stormers (10–26), Sharks (10–29).
The Ospreys’ away record is poor — five wins from 12, and all five came against sides in the bottom half of the table or in Challenge Cup fixtures. Galway on a Saturday afternoon should worry Booth’s side — they haven’t won a competitive away game against a team above them all season.
Connacht XV
Lineups not yet announced. Connacht should be boosted by the return of several players from Ireland Six Nations duty. Expect Pete Wilkins to name a strong XV — this is a home game with huge playoff implications and the momentum of four straight wins behind them.
Ospreys XV
Lineups not yet announced. The Ospreys may welcome back Welsh internationals after the Six Nations window. Jac Morgan, Adam Beard, and Keiran Williams could all feature if released, which would significantly bolster a squad that looked lightweight in Treviso.
Key Matchups
Without confirmed lineups, detailed matchup analysis is speculative — but the broad picture is clear. Both sides have comparable squad depth at this level, and the key battle will be at halfback, where Connacht’s home axis has orchestrated four straight wins. Connacht’s back three have been clinical finishers in recent weeks, and if the home side get front-foot ball, their outside backs will cause problems.
Match Forecast
Connacht’s four-match winning run — capped by that 26–19 victory at Kingspan — has given them genuine belief, and the Dexcom on a Saturday afternoon will be rocking. They’ve won 8 of 15 at home this season across all competitions, and their recent scalps over Glasgow and Ulster show they can beat quality opposition. The Ospreys, by contrast, haven’t won a meaningful away game against a top-half side all season, and the 31–19 loss at Benetton was a significant step backwards.
The 43–40 reverse fixture tells you this won’t be a cagey affair — both sides like to play with tempo and width, and Galway should produce tries. But home advantage, form trajectory, and the Ospreys’ wretched away record against decent opposition all point the same direction. Connacht by a converted score, though a tight finish wouldn’t surprise anyone given the entertainment these two produced in Swansea.
Connacht’s momentum and home advantage should carry them through — the Ospreys’ away record against quality sides is simply too poor to back them here.