How Predictions
Work
Every prediction on Jackal XV is anchored by a structured scorecard system. Seven dimensions, scored independently, combined into a net score that maps to a win probability and predicted margin. The scorecard doesn't replace analysis — it disciplines it.
Score
Each match is evaluated across 7 dimensions from the home team’s perspective. Each dimension is scored on a scale of −5 to +5.
Sum
The seven scores are summed into a net score (range: −35 to +35). Negative means the away side is favoured. Positive means the home side.
Predict
The net score maps to a win probability and predicted margin. The analyst then writes the verdict — the scorecard anchors the call, not the other way around.
Home Advantage
Venue, crowd, altitude, and travel distance for the away side. A South African highveld fixture at 1,750m earns +4 or +5. A neutral or local derby sits at +1 or 0.
Form
Last 5 results, momentum, and trajectory. A team on five straight wins versus one on five straight losses scores +5. Identical records score 0.
H2H Record
Head-to-head history, weighted towards recent meetings at this specific venue. A dominant 8-0 record at the ground earns +4/+5. An even split scores 0.
Squad Strength
Depth, international players available, key absences, and bench quality. Accounts for Six Nations or international windows and injury lists.
Set Piece
Scrum and lineout quality. A Springbok-laden front row versus a regional pack scores +3/+4. Evenly matched packs score 0.
Backline Quality
Halfback control, centre partnerships, and back-three finishing. Compares creativity, defensive solidity, and individual match-winners across the backline.
Standings Gap
Table position differential and what's at stake. Top versus bottom scores +3/+4. Adjacent teams with similar motivation score 0. A dead rubber for one side adjusts further.
The net score maps to a predicted margin (roughly net × 1.5 points) and a win probability band. These are starting points — the analyst can adjust if the qualitative analysis suggests the numbers are too generous or too conservative.
Consistency
Every report evaluates the same seven factors. A 70% prediction for one match means the same thing as 70% for another — calibrated against the same framework, not subject to whatever the analyst happens to fixate on that day.
Transparency
The scorecard shows why a prediction landed where it did. You can see exactly which dimensions drove the call and which ones were close. No black boxes.
Anchor, Not Straitjacket
The scorecard sets the starting point. If the numbers say 72% but the analyst sees an interpro derby wildcard or a weather-affected fixture, the verdict explains the override. The data informs; it doesn't dictate.
Defensible
It's harder to accidentally call something 90% when the form dimension is −2 and the set piece is even. The structure forces honest assessment across every area of the match — not just the headline narrative.
The scorecard system was introduced in March 2026. Predictions before that date used qualitative analysis only. All predictions are for entertainment purposes — rugby is gloriously unpredictable.