Champions Cup 2025/26 · Round of 16
Stade Toulousain
Bristol Bears
Stade Ernest-Wallon, Toulouse
Championship Standings
Toulouse finished 2nd in Pool 1 with 12 points despite a massive +94 point differential — their two losses came away to Glasgow and Saracens. Bristol qualified 3rd in Pool 4 with 14 points and a healthy +50 differential, behind Bordeaux and Northampton.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow | 4 | 4 | 0 | +49 | 20 |
| 2 |  Toulouse | 4 | 2 | 2 | +94 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sale | 4 | 2 | 2 | −38 | 11 |
| 4 |  Saracens | 4 | 2 | 2 | +13 | 10 |
| 5 |  Sharks | 4 | 2 | 2 | −10 | 10 |
| 6 |  Clermont | 4 | 0 | 4 | −108 | 0 |
Stade Toulousain
W2, L2The W2 L2 record flatters nobody — Toulouse's point differential of +94 is the most extreme in the entire tournament. They are utterly devastating at home, hammering Sharks 56–19 and Sale 77–7, but vulnerable on the road where they lost tight encounters at Glasgow (28–21) and Saracens (20–14). The message is clear: come to the Ernest-Wallon and you get the full Toulouse experience.
Bristol Bears
W3, L1Bristol's Champions Cup campaign has been a rollercoaster. The 61–12 demolition of Pau was emphatic, and the 61–49 shootout victory at the Bulls in Pretoria showed remarkable resilience. But a 15–27 home loss to Bordeaux exposed defensive frailties — they leaked 27 at Ashton Gate against a top French side. The narrow 17–16 scrape at Scarlets suggests inconsistency under pressure.
Head-to-Head Record
0 – 0 – 0
No recent meetings between these sides in European competition
Stade Toulousain (0)Toulouse and Bristol have not met in the Champions Cup knockout stages before, making this a genuine novelty fixture. Without direct H2H data, the narrative shifts to pedigree — Toulouse are six-time European champions, the most successful club in the tournament's history. Bristol have never progressed beyond the pool stage in the modern Champions Cup era. The gulf in European knockout experience is enormous.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|
Average score in the last 6 meetings: No previous meetings to calculate an average. Pedigree favours Toulouse overwhelmingly — they have won 6 European titles to Bristol's 0.
Extended Form
Stade Toulousain12W, 3L (last 15)
Top 14: W 45–29 Montpellier, L 44–20 at Bordeaux, W 68–13 Montauban, W 13–9 at Stade Français, W 31–10 Bayonne, W 59–22 Pau, W 60–14 La Rochelle, W 41–19 at Lyon, W 48–24 Racing 92, W 49–7 at Montauban. Champions Cup: W 77–7 Sale, L 20–14 at Saracens, L 28–21 at Glasgow, W 56–19 Sharks.
Toulouse are a machine. They have scored 40+ points in 9 of their last 15 matches, including a 77–7 annihilation of Sale and a 68–13 hammering of Montauban. Their only losses have come away from home — at Bordeaux (44–20), Saracens (20–14), and Glasgow (28–21). At the Ernest-Wallon, they are virtually unbeatable, averaging over 50 points per game at home this season.
Bristol Bears9W, 6L (last 15)
Premiership: L 14–18 Harlequins, L 33–19 at Leicester, W 8–3 at Exeter, W 19–17 Sale, W 36–27 Newcastle, W 40–14 at Harlequins, W 46–12 Northampton, W 49–34 at Gloucester, W 18–14 Exeter. Prem Cup: L 36–41 Sale, L 33–24 at Bath, L 35–46 Exeter, L 8–16 Gloucester. Champions Cup: L 15–27 Bordeaux, W 61–49 at Bulls, W 61–12 Pau, W 17–16 at Scarlets.
Bristol's form is a tale of two competitions. In the Premiership, they have been strong — beating Harlequins 40–14 away, thumping Northampton 46–12, and winning at Exeter. But they've hit a rough patch recently, losing 6 of their last 8 across all competitions including Premiership Cup losses. The 61–49 win at the Bulls was thrilling but exposed a leaky defence that Toulouse will ruthlessly exploit.
Stade Toulousain XV
Lineups not yet announced. Toulouse's squad is stacked with internationals — expect Dupont at 9 and Ntamack at 10 to form the half-back axis, with Ramos at fullback. Marchand at hooker and Flament in the second row provide set-piece security. The back three options of Capuozzo, Kinghorn, and Lebel offer pace and finishing in abundance. Update when teams are confirmed.
Bristol Bears XV
Lineups not yet announced. Bristol's squad depth is impressive with Genge at loosehead, the Grondona brothers in the backrow, and Rees-Zammit providing electric pace on the wing. Ivanishvili at No. 8 adds Georgian power, while Elizalde offers creativity at fullback. Pat Lam will need his strongest available XV for a trip to Toulouse. Update when teams are confirmed.
Key Matchups
The decisive matchup is at half-back. Dupont is the best 9 in the world — his speed of delivery, sniping threat, and decision-making under pressure are unmatched. Paired with Ntamack, who controls the game with surgical kicking and flat passes, Toulouse's 9-10 axis is the gold standard in European rugby. Bristol's backrow — with the Grondona brothers and the physical Ivanishvili — offers their best chance of disrupting Toulouse's rhythm at the breakdown. If Bristol can slow Dupont's ball, they have a chance. If not, the class gap will tell.
Match Forecast
Toulouse at the Ernest-Wallon in a European knockout match is one of the toughest assignments in club rugby. Their home form this season is extraordinary — 77–7 against Sale, 56–19 against the Sharks, averaging over 50 points per home game. The Dupont-Ntamack-Ramos spine is the best in the business, and they'll have the full complement of French internationals available for a match of this magnitude. The scorecard yields a +20 net — firmly in 'strong favourite' territory — driven by home advantage, squad strength, and backline superiority.
Bristol's only realistic path to an upset runs through their backrow. The Grondona brothers and Ivanishvili can be destructive at the breakdown, and if they slow Toulouse's ball, the game tightens. Rees-Zammit's pace is a genuine threat on the counter, and Bristol showed at the Bulls (61–49) that they can score in bunches. But their recent form is alarming — 6 losses from their last 8 — and their defence conceded 49 to the Bulls and 27 to Bordeaux at home. Against Toulouse's attack, those leaks become floods. Bristol's European pedigree simply doesn't match Toulouse's six titles.
Toulouse win comfortably at home — the European kings are too strong for a Bristol side in patchy form.