Ulster sit 6th on 36 points — locked in a tight battle for a home playoff quarter-final. Edinburgh are 12th on 23 points, mathematically alive but realistically fighting to avoid a bottom-four finish.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | +150 | 45 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +67 | 41 | |
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +35 | 40 | |
| 4 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +15 | 39 | |
| 5 | 10 | 8 | 2 | +113 | 36 | |
| 6 | 11 | 7 | 4 | +83 | 36 | |
| 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | −20 | 33 | |
| 8 | 11 | 6 | 5 | +5 | 30 | |
| 9 | 12 | 5 | 5 | −13 | 29 | |
| 10 | 11 | 4 | 7 | −21 | 25 | |
| 11 | 10 | 4 | 5 | −36 | 24 | |
| 12 | 11 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 23 | |
| 13 | 12 | 4 | 7 | −65 | 23 | |
| 14 | 12 | 3 | 7 | −50 | 20 | |
| 15 | 11 | 3 | 7 | −71 | 16 | |
| 16 | 11 | 2 | 9 | −154 | 12 |
Edinburgh’s form reads like a team that can compete but can’t consistently close. The 3–21 1872 Cup humiliation against Glasgow at home was the nadir — and they followed it up by losing 17–19 to the Bulls in another home fixture. The scrappy wins over Benetton (15–14 away) and Scarlets (24–19) suggest a side that grinds rather than dominates.
Ulster have been one of the form teams in the URC — 7 wins from 11 and sitting 6th. The 28–3 demolition of Munster was a season highlight. But the Ospreys defeat a fortnight ago was a reality check, and tonight’s squad has been weakened by seven changes due to Six Nations call-ups. The question is whether this second-string side can maintain the momentum.
7 – 0 – 10
Edinburgh wins · Draws · Ulster wins (17 meetings at this venue)
Ulster have historically dominated this fixture — winning 10 of 17 meetings in Edinburgh and 22 of 32 overall. But the tide has turned: Edinburgh won the most recent meeting 47–17 in May 2025, and before that won 27–24 away in Belfast. Two straight Edinburgh wins after years of Ulster dominance.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | URC | Edinburgh 47–17 Ulster |
| Dec 2023 | URC | Ulster 24–27 Edinburgh |
| Apr 2023 | URC | Ulster 28–14 Edinburgh |
| Apr 2022 | URC | Edinburgh 10–16 Ulster |
| Jun 2021 | Pro14 | Edinburgh 31–34 Ulster |
| Nov 2020 | Pro14 | Edinburgh 14–43 Ulster |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Edinburgh 24 – Ulster 27 in the last six meetings. Ulster won 4 of 6, but Edinburgh have won the last 2 — including a 47–17 thrashing at Hive Stadium.
Wins: Scarlets (24–19, URC), Gloucester (26–24, EPCR), Benetton (×2: 15–14 away, 43–0 home), Toulon (33–20, EPCR), Ospreys (19–17). Losses: Leinster (20–28), Bulls (17–19), Bath (10–63, EPCR), Glasgow (×2: 3–21, 12–24), Castres (0–33, EPCR), Cardiff (19–20), Munster (19–20), Zebre (28–31).
Edinburgh blow hot and cold. Their home record against lesser opposition is solid — 43–0 against Benetton, 33–20 against Toulon — but they crumble against top sides. The back-to-back 1872 Cup defeats to Glasgow (3–21 and 12–24) and the 10–63 demolition at Bath were season low points.
Wins: Cardiff (21–14), Stade Français (26–19, EPCR), Cheetahs (28–0, EPCR), Munster (28–3), Connacht (29–24), Racing 92 (61–7, EPCR), Benetton (47–13), Sharks (34–26), Bulls (28–7), Dragons (42–21). Losses: Ospreys (10–21), Scarlets (22–27), Leinster (20–24), Cardiff (26–29), Lions (31–49).
Ulster’s record speaks to a squad with genuine top-four quality when at full strength. The 28–3 Munster demolition and the 61–7 European rout of Racing 92 are benchmark performances. All five defeats came against quality opposition or on SA tours. The concern tonight is the enforced seven changes — a significantly weakened squad.
Dylan Richardson shifts to hooker for his first start in the position. Liam McConnell returns from a rib injury at blindside flanker, bolstering a backrow alongside Connor Boyle — continuing his comeback from a long-term knee injury — and Ben Muncaster at No. 8. Ben Vellacott captains from scrum-half behind a reshuffled forward pack.
Seven changes from the Ospreys defeat — the cost of Six Nations involvement. Rob Herring’s 200+ caps of experience anchors a new-look front row with Angus Bell and Tom McAllister. Juarno Augustus returns from an ankle injury to form a fearsome backrow alongside Cormac Izuchukwu. Michael Lowry at fullback is the main attacking threat in an otherwise rotated backline. Murphy opts for a 5:3 bench split.
Ulster’s backrow is the headline matchup — Augustus and Izuchukwu bring ferocious carrying power that Edinburgh’s returning Boyle and McConnell will struggle to contain. Lowry at fullback and Kok on the wing give Ulster a back-three advantage in finishing quality. But Edinburgh hold the edge at half-back: Thompson and Vellacott are the more established pairing, and the Hive Stadium crowd should give them a platform. The midfield battle between Tuipulotu and Hume could be decisive.
Ulster should edge this, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion. Their squad has been gutted by seven changes for Six Nations duty, and Edinburgh — for all their inconsistency — beat Scarlets last time out and have won the last two meetings against Ulster, including a 47–17 demolition at this ground in May. The Hive Stadium is not an easy place to win.
The difference-makers are Ulster’s backrow — Augustus, Izuchukwu and Bryn Ward offer serious physicality — and Michael Lowry’s ability to conjure something from nothing at fullback. Edinburgh’s defence has been tight recently (24–19 and 17–19 in their last two home URC games) but they struggle to score. If Thompson can’t unlock the Ulster defence, the visitors’ class should tell in the final quarter.
Ulster to grind out a narrow win — but Edinburgh’s recent record against them makes this a genuine contest.