Six Nations 2026 · Round 5
Wales
Italy
Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Championship Standings
After Round 4 — Italy sit 4th on 9 points with two wins, including a historic victory over England in Rome. Wales are rooted to the bottom on 1 point, winless in four, and staring down the barrel of a second consecutive wooden spoon.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | +79 | 16 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 4 | 3 | 1 | +21 | 16 |
| 3 |  Ireland | 4 | 3 | 1 | +16 | 13 |
| 4 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 2 | −24 | 9 |
| 5 |  England | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Wales | 4 | 0 | 4 | −96 | 1 |
Wales
W0, L4A torrid campaign for Wales. Hammered by England and France by a combined 83 points in the first two rounds, they showed fight against Scotland (losing by just 3 at home) and were more competitive in Dublin (17 points, their highest away total). The trajectory is marginally upward — but conceding an average of 39 points per game tells you everything about the defensive fragility. This is a squad in transition under Steve Tandy, and the wooden spoon feels inevitable.
Italy
W2, L2Italy’s tournament has been defined by two statement home wins — beating Scotland in Round 1 and England in Round 4 — and two away defeats to the top sides. The England win was the headline: Italy’s first-ever Six Nations victory over England, achieved through relentless defensive pressure and Garbisi’s boot. Away from home they’ve struggled (13 and 8 points in Dublin and Lille), but Cardiff is a far less intimidating venue than either of those.
Head-to-Head Record
22 – 1 – 4
Wales wins · Draws · Italy wins (last 27 meetings)
Wales (22)Italy have turned this rivalry on its head in the last three years. After decades of Welsh dominance, Italy have won three of the last four meetings — 22–15 in 2025, 24–21 in 2024, and 22–21 in 2022. The only Welsh win in that span was the pandemic-era 48–7 in 2021. The momentum has completely shifted.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | Six Nations | Italy 22–15 Wales |
| Mar 2024 | Six Nations | Wales 21–24 Italy |
| Mar 2023 | Six Nations | Italy 17–29 Wales |
| Mar 2022 | Six Nations | Wales 21–22 Italy |
| Mar 2021 | Six Nations | Italy 7–48 Wales |
| Dec 2020 | Autumn Nations Cup | Wales 38–18 Italy |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Italy 20 – Wales 23. But the recent trend is firmly Italy’s — three wins in the last four meetings, all by tight margins.
Extended Form
Wales1W, 11L
Wales’s home record in the last 12 months is abysmal. The sole win was 24–23 over Japan in November 2025. Losses at home to: Scotland (23–26), France (12–54), South Africa (0–73), New Zealand (26–52), Argentina (28–52), Fiji (19–24), England (14–68), Ireland (18–27), and Scotland (35–29, 2025).
The Principality Stadium has become a house of horrors for Wales. They’ve lost 11 of their last 12 home games across all competitions, including that 0–73 annihilation by South Africa. The roof being open or closed barely matters when the defence is this porous. Italy will fancy their chances here more than at any point in the championship’s history.
Italy4W, 5L
Wins against: Scotland (18–15), England (23–18), Chile (73–6), Namibia (73–6). Losses to: Ireland (13–20), France (8–33), South Africa (0–45, 24–42).
Italy are a different team at home versus away — their two wins this championship both came at the Stadio Olimpico. On the road, they’ve scored just 21 points in two Six Nations away games. Cardiff is neutral territory in terms of atmosphere given Wales’s current malaise, which may work in Italy’s favour.
Wales XV
Wales are unchanged from the Ireland defeat — Tandy rewarding ‘cohesion and consistency’ despite four straight losses. The only change to the matchday 23 is Blair Murray replacing Louie Hennessey on the bench. Rees-Zammit continues at fullback, Edwards at 10, and Lake captains from hooker.
Italy XV
Quesada makes three changes from the England win. Muhamed Hasa replaces the injured Simone Ferrari at tighthead, Alessandro Fusco returns at scrum-half, and Federico Ruzza comes in at lock. Lamaro captains a pack that dominated England’s set piece last week. Garbisi continues at fly-half — his goalkicking has been outstanding this tournament.
Key Matchups
Italy have the edge in most areas. Garbisi is a level above Edwards at fly-half — his game management and goalkicking have been decisive this tournament. The Lamaro-Zuliani-Cannone backrow is physical and aggressive at the breakdown, an area where Wales have leaked penalties all championship. Wales’s best weapon is their back three — Rees-Zammit’s pace, Adams’s finishing, and Mee’s aerial ability could exploit Italy’s tendency to drift in defence. But Italy’s midfield of Menoncello and Brex offers far more punch and creativity than anything Wales have.
Match Forecast
Italy should win this. They’ve beaten Wales in three of the last four meetings, they’re riding the confidence of that historic England scalp, and Wales’s home record is the worst in the championship. Garbisi’s boot will be crucial — Wales concede penalties at an alarming rate (an average of 14 per game this tournament), and the Italian fly-half has been clinical from the tee.
Wales’s only path to victory is through emotion and set-piece disruption. This is Super Saturday — the Principality crowd will be desperate for a win, and Tandy’s decision to go unchanged shows faith in this group’s cohesion. If Edwards can match Garbisi’s territorial kicking and Wales can win the collision battle, they could drag Italy into a dogfight. But Italy have won these tight games recently — 22–15, 24–21, 22–21 in the last three victories — and they know how to close Wales out.
Italy to complete the double over Wales — a result that confirms the power shift in this rivalry.