URC 2025/26 · Round 16
Lions
Glasgow Warriors
Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
Championship Standings
Glasgow top the table with 55 points and a +192 differential — the best in the competition. The Lions sit 5th on 43, four points clear of the play-off cut with two rounds to play. A home win jumps them into the top four; a loss and they’re scrapping with Cardiff and Munster for a wildcard.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow Warriors | 14 | 11 | 3 | +192 | 55 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 14 | 11 | 3 | +139 | 51 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +113 | 47 |
| 4 |  Leinster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +62 | 46 |
| 5 | Lions | 14 | 8 | 5 | +36 | 43 |
| 6 |  Cardiff | 14 | 8 | 6 | −9 | 41 |
| 7 |  Munster | 14 | 8 | 6 | −25 | 41 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 14 | 8 | 6 | +57 | 40 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 14 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Sharks | 14 | 6 | 7 | −26 | 33 |
| 11 |  Ospreys | 14 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 30 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 14 | 5 | 7 | −74 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 14 | 4 | 10 | −71 | 23 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 14 | 4 | 9 | −86 | 21 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 14 | 2 | 9 | −83 | 21 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 14 | 2 | 12 | −203 | 12 |
Lions
W4, L1Four wins on the bounce, all at Ellis Park — and the scalps are getting heavier. The Stormers came to Joburg sitting second and left with a 14-point loss; Edinburgh were dismantled 54–17. Swys de Bruin’s side have scored 154 points across those four home wins and are averaging a +20 margin. The one blot is the 52-point Bulls rout in round 11 — but that was a derby ambush, not a pattern. On current form, they are the form team of the URC behind Glasgow themselves.
Glasgow Warriors
W4, L1The URC’s best team by every measure — top of the table, best points differential (+192), and they’ve beaten Leinster by 21 and the Bulls twice this season. The Connacht loss is the only blemish in their last nine, and the Bulls scrap last round showed they can grind when they’re off. Crucially, they’ve already banked a South African win this campaign — one of very few European sides to manage that. The issue is they arrive in Joburg straight off a Champions Cup quarter-final exit to Toulon (19–22) — fatigue, not form, is the question.
Head-to-Head Record
2 – 0 – 3
Lions wins · Draws · Glasgow wins (last 5 meetings)
Lions (2)Glasgow lead the overall H2H 3–2 — but every single result has gone with home advantage. Lions have won both meetings at Ellis Park; Glasgow have won all three at Scotstoun. The last trip Lions made to Glasgow ended 42–0, the most lopsided result in the series. This fixture has never produced an away winner.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | URC | Glasgow 42–0 Lions |
| May 2024 | URC | Lions 44–21 Glasgow |
| Apr 2023 | URC | Glasgow 31–21 Lions |
| Feb 2023 | URC | Lions 35–24 Glasgow |
| Oct 2021 | URC | Glasgow 13–9 Lions |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Lions 21.8 – Glasgow 26.2 overall. But split by venue: Lions win 39.5–22.5 at Ellis Park, Glasgow win 28.7–10.0 at Scotstoun. The venue effect in this fixture is enormous.
Extended Form
Lions10W, 5L, 1D
URC wins over Stormers, Ulster, Edinburgh, Sharks (twice), Connacht, Scarlets, Dragons (twice), Ospreys; Challenge Cup wins over Lyon and Section Paloise. Key losses: Bulls (H, 17–52), Benetton (A, twice), Cardiff (A), Zebre (A).
The Lions have quietly become a genuinely hard home team — they’ve lost at Ellis Park once all season. Their away record is the problem: Zebre, Cardiff and Benetton all took them down on the road. This fixture is at home, which means all the right factors line up, but they’ve never beaten a side as good as this Glasgow outfit in this form.
Glasgow Warriors13W, 3L
URC wins over Leinster, Stormers, Bulls (away), Munster, Ospreys (away), Sharks, Benetton, Edinburgh (home and away), Dragons, Zebre (twice), Scarlets. Champions Cup wins over Racing 92, Sale, Leicester, Toulouse, Saracens. Losses: Toulon (QF, 19–22), Connacht (A), Scarlets (A).
Genuinely elite, year-long form. Franco Smith’s side have beaten Leinster three times in 12 months and won at Loftus. They’re the only side in the URC with a complete body of work against top-six opposition. The Toulon loss stings, but the performance (19–22 away at a Top 14 side) was fine — the concern is whether a 10,000km round trip six days later catches up with them.
Lions XV
Lineup not yet announced. Swys de Bruin has a settled combination during the four-match win streak, with Morné van den Berg–Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu steering, Henco van Wyk outstanding at 12, and Ruan Venter — a shortlist nominee for URC flanker of the year — leading the back row. Quan Horn’s wide game has been central to the surge.
Glasgow Warriors XV
Lineup not yet announced. Glasgow’s question is rotation: do they pick a full-strength side four days out from a 10,000km trip, or preserve legs? Expect the core — Dempsey, the Fagerson brothers, Darge, Dobie, Horne, Tuipulotu, Jones — to start given the top-two fight with the Stormers. Jamie Dobie (7 URC tries) and wing Gregor Hiddleston are the attacking focal points.
Key Matchups
The obvious match-winning gap is the Scotland midfield — Tuipulotu and Jones have been the best centre pairing in the URC and are a level above Kriel/Van Wyk. But the Lions counter runs through the 9–10 axis: Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been the game’s form fly-half over the last month, and at altitude a boot that kicks 60 metres kicks 65. Glasgow’s lineout (Cummings, Samuel, Williamson) is probably the best in the competition, which makes Lions discipline critical — they cannot afford to kick to touch and hand Glasgow territory. The key battle is whether Glasgow’s breakdown dominance (Darge is the URC’s best 7) can neutralise the Lions’ tempo before the bench lands.
Match Forecast
The scorecard lands at +2 — a coin-flip that tilts home because of altitude and tour fatigue. Glasgow are the better team on a neutral field, but this is not a neutral field. They’ve flown 10,000km six days after 80 minutes against Toulon in a Champions Cup QF, and they’re going to 1,753 metres. Every European side that has come to Ellis Park this season has lost — including a Stormers side better placed than Glasgow for the trip. Add the H2H (Lions 2–0 at home, Glasgow have never won in Johannesburg) and the Lions’ four-match winning run, and the bones of a home upset are clearly there.
The counter-argument is real: this Glasgow side beat Leinster by 21, won at Loftus earlier in the season, and has the single best forward pack in the URC. If Darge and Dempsey slow the Lions ruck and Tuipulotu–Jones get front-foot ball, the Lions don’t have a plan-B backline. The wobble-case is Glasgow holding territory for 20 minutes and grinding out a 25–18 type win. But the weight of home factors — altitude, fatigue, venue record, form — makes the Lions marginal favourites. Four points or fewer either way would be the bet.
Lions edge it by a converted try — altitude and fatigue tilt the coin-flip toward Ellis Park.