Six Nations 2026 · Round 4
Ireland
Wales
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Championship Standings
After Round 3 — France lead with a perfect record. Ireland sit 3rd with two wins but need bonus points to stay in the title hunt. Wales are rooted to the bottom without a win.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 3 | 3 | 0 | +89 | 15 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 3 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 11 |
| 3 |  Ireland | 3 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  England | 3 | 1 | 2 | +9 | 5 |
| 5 |  Italy | 3 | 1 | 2 | −29 | 5 |
| 6 |  Wales | 3 | 0 | 3 | −86 | 1 |
Ireland
W2, L1Ireland were humbled in Paris on opening day but have responded with back-to-back wins, including a commanding 42–21 demolition of England at Twickenham. The attack is clicking — 42 points in London suggests real momentum — and Crowley’s game management has matured with each outing.
Wales
W0, L3A torrid campaign for Wales. Hammered by England and France by a combined 83 points, then agonisingly close against Scotland at home. The narrow Round 3 loss offered a sliver of hope, but they concede an average of 43 points per game — a damning statistic heading to Dublin.
Head-to-Head in Dublin
13 – 0 – 5
Ireland wins · Draws · Wales wins (last 18 meetings overall)
Ireland (13)Ireland are utterly dominant in this fixture at the Aviva Stadium. Wales have not won in Dublin since 2015, and recent visits have been one-sided affairs with Ireland winning by an average of 22 points in the last three meetings at this ground.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | Six Nations | Ireland 31–7 Wales |
| Feb 2024 | Six Nations | Ireland 29–7 Wales |
| Nov 2020 | Autumn Nations Cup | Ireland 32–9 Wales |
| Feb 2019 | Six Nations | Ireland 24–14 Wales |
| Nov 2018 | Friendly | Ireland 19–10 Wales |
| Feb 2016 | Six Nations | Ireland 37–27 Wales |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Ireland 29 – Wales 12. Ireland have won all six by an average margin of 17 points.
Extended Form
Ireland6W, 3L
Wins against: England (42–21), Italy (20–13), Australia (46–19), Japan (41–10), Portugal (106–7), Georgia (34–5). Losses to: France (36–14), South Africa (24–13), New Zealand (26–13).
Ireland’s losses have all come against the world’s top 3 sides. At home, they remain formidable — only South Africa have beaten them in Dublin in the last two years. Their summer thrashings of Portugal and Georgia, plus the November win over Australia, show a squad with serious depth.
Wales1W, 7L
The sole win in the last 12 months was a narrow 24–23 victory over Japan in November. Otherwise: losses to South Africa (0–73), New Zealand (26–52), Argentina (28–52), England (48–7), France (12–54), and Scotland (23–26). Wales have conceded 40+ points in four of those defeats.
Ireland XV
Gibson-Park wins his 50th cap at scrum-half. Stockdale replaces James Lowe on the wing, adding aerial prowess and power. O’Toole starts at loosehead in an intriguing front-row reshuffle. Nathan Doak is in line for a first cap off the bench. Doris captains from No. 8 with a backrow of Conan, Timoney, and the skipper providing huge carrying power.
Wales XV
Injuries to Sam Costelow and Taine Plumtree force changes. Dan Edwards starts at fly-half — a baptism of fire in Dublin. James Botham starts at openside flanker. Rees-Zammit at fullback provides electric counter-attacking threat. Louie Hennessey is in line for a first cap off the bench. Dewi Lake captains from hooker.
Key Matchups
Wales’s best hope lies in their back three — Rees-Zammit’s pace and Adams’s finishing are genuine threats on the counter. But Ireland dominate virtually every other matchup. Furlong at tighthead is world-class, the Doris-led backrow is immense, and the Gibson-Park/Crowley axis has far more experience and control than Williams/Edwards. Ireland’s bench — with van der Flier, McCarthy, and Frawley — also offers a clear advantage in the final quarter.
Match Forecast
Ireland should win this comfortably. They are a class above Wales in nearly every department — set piece, half-back play, backrow carrying, and bench depth. Wales’s injury-hit squad, with an inexperienced fly-half making his first start in Dublin, faces a hostile Aviva crowd and an Irish side building momentum after that emphatic win at Twickenham.
The historical record is brutal: Ireland have won their last three home meetings by an average of 22 points (31–7, 29–7, 32–9). Wales’s only realistic path to competitiveness is through Rees-Zammit counter-attacks and set-piece disruption, but Ireland’s lineout — marshalled by Beirne — rarely malfunctions at home.
Ireland win by 20+ points, likely with a bonus point.