URC 2025/26 · Round 15
Leinster
Scarlets
RDS Arena, Dublin
Championship Standings
Leinster sit 4th on 41 points from 13 games — still firmly in the playoff mix but needing wins to keep pace with Glasgow, the Stormers, and Ulster above them. Scarlets are 14th on 21 points, 20 points off the pace. The gulf is enormous.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 13 | 10 | 3 | +171 | 50 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 13 | 10 | 3 | +120 | 46 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +97 | 42 |
| 4 | Leinster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +45 | 41 |
| 5 |  Cardiff | 13 | 8 | 5 | −3 | 40 |
| 6 |  Munster | 13 | 8 | 5 | −22 | 39 |
| 7 |  Lions | 13 | 7 | 5 | +20 | 38 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 13 | 7 | 6 | +54 | 35 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 13 | 6 | 7 | +3 | 35 |
| 10 |  Ospreys | 13 | 5 | 6 | −25 | 29 |
| 11 |  Sharks | 13 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 29 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 13 | 5 | 6 | −53 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 13 | 4 | 9 | −52 | 23 |
| 14 | Scarlets | 13 | 4 | 8 | −69 | 21 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 13 | 2 | 8 | −67 | 20 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 13 | 2 | 11 | −187 | 12 |
Leinster
W2, L3Three defeats in five URC matches — and the most recent was a 38–17 hammering at Scotstoun that exposed real vulnerabilities on the road. Leinster have been a tale of two sides: ruthless at home (27–18 over the Bulls, 34–23 against Connacht) but alarmingly fragile away. The Cardiff 8–7 loss was almost inexplicable. Leo Cullen’s side desperately need a dominant home performance to reset the narrative.
Scarlets
W2, L3The 36–17 bonus-point win over Zebre at Parc y Scarlets will have lifted spirits, but context matters — it was Zebre. Before that, the Scarlets were smashed 31–14 at Connacht and humiliated 28–5 at Dragons. They also drew 20–20 at Benetton in R11. Away from Llanelli, this is a side that consistently comes up short against any quality opposition.
Head-to-Head in Dublin
9 – 0 – 1
Leinster wins · Draws · Scarlets wins (10 meetings at this venue)
Leinster (9)Leinster have won 9 of 10 home meetings against the Scarlets — a record of near-total dominance. The one Scarlets win in Dublin came back in May 2017 (27–15). Since then, Leinster have reeled off five straight home victories by an average margin of 27 points, including a 54–5 demolition in November 2023 and a 50–15 rout in October 2021.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | URC | Leinster 33–21 Scarlets |
| Apr 2025 | URC | Scarlets 35–22 Leinster |
| Nov 2023 | URC | Leinster 54–5 Scarlets |
| Oct 2022 | URC | Scarlets 5–35 Leinster |
| Oct 2021 | URC | Leinster 50–15 Scarlets |
| Jan 2021 | Pro14 | Scarlets 25–52 Leinster |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Leinster 41 – Scarlets 17 in the last six meetings. Leinster have won five of six by an average margin of 28 points.
Extended Form
Leinster13W, 5L
Wins: Bulls (27–18), Connacht (34–23), Edinburgh (28–20), Connacht (52–17), Munster away (13–8), Ulster (24–20), Dragons away (24–10), Zebre (50–26), Sharks (31–5), Scarlets (33–21), Bayonne away (22–13, ERCC), La Rochelle (25–24, ERCC), Leicester away (23–15, ERCC). Losses: Glasgow (17–38), Cardiff away (7–8), Munster at home (14–31), Bulls away (31–39), Stormers away (0–35).
Leinster’s all-competitions record reads 13 wins from 18 — impressive on paper, but the five defeats tell a story. Three came in hostile away environments (Stormers 35–0, Bulls 39–31, Glasgow 38–17), one at a tricky Welsh ground (Cardiff 8–7), and one was a rare home capitulation against Munster (31–14). At the RDS, they’ve been formidable: wins over La Rochelle, the Bulls, Connacht, and Zebre. The fortress is intact.
Scarlets5W, 1D, 8L
Wins: Zebre (36–17, URC), Ulster (27–22), Cardiff away (21–17), Glasgow at home (23–0). Draw: Benetton (20–20, away). Losses: Connacht (14–31), Edinburgh (19–24), Dragons (5–28), Ospreys at home (19–26), Northampton (28–43, ERCC), Pau at home (38–47, ERCC), Bordeaux (21–50, ERCC), Bristol at home (16–17, ERCC).
A brutal 12 months for the Scarlets across all competitions. Just 5 wins from 14, with European defeats at Bordeaux (50–21), Northampton (43–28), and at home to Pau (47–38) highlighting the gap in quality. The 23–0 shutout of Glasgow at Parc y Scarlets remains the standout result, but it feels like an outlier. Away from Llanelli, they’ve been consistently outclassed.
Leinster XV
Lineups have not yet been announced. Leinster are expected to welcome back Irish internationals following the conclusion of the Six Nations — the likes of Caelan Doris, James Lowe, Garry Ringrose, and Andrew Porter should be available.
Scarlets XV
Lineups have not yet been announced. The Scarlets may welcome back some Welsh internationals, though the depth of returning talent is considerably thinner than Leinster’s. Expect Dwayne Peel to lean on the same core that beat Zebre 36–17 last week.
Key Matchups
This is a mismatch across virtually every position. Leinster’s scrum, anchored by Furlong and Porter, is among the best in European rugby — the Scarlets’ pack has been bullied at the coalface all season. In the centres, Ringrose and Henshaw are a Test-quality pairing facing a developing Scarlets midfield. The back three of Lowe, Keenan, and Osborne carry a lethal finishing threat that the Scarlets’ defence has struggled to contain.
Match Forecast
Leinster need this game. After the 38–17 humbling at Scotstoun, a return to the RDS against a side they’ve beaten 9 times out of 10 at this venue is exactly the tonic. The Irish internationals return, the set piece advantage is overwhelming, and Leinster’s home record this season — dominant wins over the Bulls, Connacht, and Zebre — suggests they’ll be ruthless.
The Scarlets’ best hope is early disruption — Gareth Davies’ sniping, the physicality of Johnny Williams in midfield, and the set-piece leadership of Jake Ball. But their away record against top-half sides is dismal, and a trip to Dublin ranks among the toughest assignments in the URC. Expect a comfortable home win with a bonus point in play.
Leinster to reassert themselves at the RDS — a bonus-point win is the minimum expectation against a Scarlets side with one away win all season.