URC 2025/26 · Round 16
Scarlets
Cardiff Rugby
Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Championship Standings
Scarlets are 14th on 21 points — a miserable campaign with just 4 wins, one clear of basement duo Dragons and Zebre. Cardiff sit 6th on 41 points but have cratered on the SA tour run-in — four straight losses including a 40–7 demolition at Loftus has compressed the gap between these two dramatically.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 14 | 11 | 3 | +192 | 55 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 14 | 11 | 3 | +139 | 51 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +113 | 47 |
| 4 |  Leinster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +62 | 46 |
| 5 |  Lions | 14 | 8 | 5 | +36 | 43 |
| 6 | Cardiff | 14 | 8 | 6 | −9 | 41 |
| 7 |  Munster | 14 | 8 | 6 | −25 | 41 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 14 | 8 | 6 | +57 | 40 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 14 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Sharks | 14 | 6 | 7 | −26 | 33 |
| 11 |  Ospreys | 14 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 30 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 14 | 5 | 7 | −74 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 14 | 4 | 10 | −71 | 23 |
| 14 | Scarlets | 14 | 4 | 9 | −86 | 21 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 14 | 2 | 9 | −83 | 21 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 14 | 2 | 12 | −203 | 12 |
Scarlets
W1, L4Five matches, one win — and that was a home drubbing of bottom-placed Zebre. Scarlets have leaked 40+ in a round-trip of Irish provincial away losses (Connacht 31–14, Leinster 36–19), and the only real bright spot beyond the Zebre cakewalk was a 20–20 stalemate in Treviso. This is a squad that has — predictably — fallen away after the Six Nations break. Parc y Scarlets remains the one place they can still threaten — they shut Glasgow out 23–0 here earlier in the season.
Cardiff Rugby
W1, L4The SA tour has broken Cardiff’s season. They were 3rd on the table a month ago; they’re now 6th and sliding, with only the Leinster ambush (a muddy 8–7 arm-wrestle in Cardiff) to show for their last five. The 40–7 beating at Loftus was the nadir. Alan Lawrence and Daniel Thomas are still carrying the defensive load (1st and 2nd in URC tackles), but Cardiff’s attack, so fluent earlier in the season, has gone missing.
Head-to-Head Record
24 – 0 – 14
Scarlets wins · Draws · Cardiff wins (last 38 meetings overall)
Scarlets (24)Scarlets have dominated the modern rivalry — 24 wins to 14 in the last 38 meetings, with no draws. Crucially, they’ve taken the last two: a 21–17 away win in Cardiff in December and a 25–19 victory at the Arms Park in 2024. At Parc y Scarlets the picture is tighter though — Scarlets are just 2–3 in the last 5 home derbies against Cardiff.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | URC | Cardiff 17–21 Scarlets |
| Oct 2024 | URC | Cardiff 19–25 Scarlets |
| Sep 2024 | URC | Scarlets 15–24 Cardiff |
| Dec 2023 | URC | Cardiff 23–29 Scarlets |
| Nov 2023 | URC | Scarlets 31–25 Cardiff |
| Jan 2023 | URC | Cardiff 22–28 Scarlets |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Scarlets 24 – Cardiff 20 across the last six meetings. Scarlets have won five of those six, including both this season.
Extended Form
Scarlets4W, 9L, 1D (URC)
URC wins: Glasgow Warriors (23–0 H), Zebre (36–17 H), Ulster (27–22 H), Cardiff (21–17 A). Draw: Benetton (20–20 A). Losses: Stormers (0–34 H), Dragons (28–5 A), Ospreys (19–26 H), Lions (29–18 A), Sharks (29–19 A), Munster (34–21 A), Connacht (31–14 A), Edinburgh (24–19 A), Leinster (36–19 A). Also winless in the Champions Cup pool stage.
A truly dire season. Four URC wins from 14, a pointless European campaign, and a −86 points differential second-worst in the league. The one consolation is that Parc y Scarlets remains a respectable fortress — the 23–0 shutout of Glasgow is the season’s highlight, and three of four URC wins have come at home.
Cardiff Rugby8W, 6L (URC)
URC wins: Dragons (24–17 A), Connacht (14–8 H), Ulster (29–26 H), Benetton (17–8 H), Edinburgh (20–19 H), Lions (33–20 H), Leinster (8–7 H), and a 2024 win at Scarlets (24–15 A). Recent losses: Bulls (40–7 A), Sharks (21–15 A), Benetton (38–35 A), Ulster (21–14 A), Scarlets (17–21 H), Ospreys (33–22 A).
Cardiff’s body of work is still strong — 8 URC wins, wins over Leinster and Ulster, and a 4–0 start stretched them to 3rd. But the last five weeks have been brutal: four losses on the road across SA and Italy, with defensive collapses at Loftus and a failed attempt at the great escape in Treviso. Away form this season is passable (3W–5L), but the trend is obviously downward.
Scarlets XV
Scarlets team not yet announced at time of writing. Expect Dwayne Peel to lean on his internationals for the penultimate home game of the season — Sam Costelow at 10, Joe Roberts (7 tries, team top scorer) and Johnny Williams in midfield, Blair Murray and Ellis Mee out wide. Ryan Elias leads the pack, with Sam Lousi and Taine Plumtree carrying the heavy lifting at lock and 8. Fletcher Anderson has been a season-long workhorse (3rd in URC carries, 142 tackles).
Cardiff Rugby XV
Cardiff team not yet announced. Chris Dicomidis will be under pressure to stop the bleeding — expect a near full-strength XV with Josh Adams (6 tries in 8 URC apps) on the wing, Cameron Winnett at 15, Ben Thomas pulling strings at 10 or 12, Taulupe Faletau at 8 (if fit), and Alex Mann/James Botham in the back row. The set piece hinges on Liam Belcher at hooker and the Domachowski-led front row.
Key Matchups
On paper Cardiff’s backline is a level above — Josh Adams leads Welsh URC try-scorers with 6 in 8, Mason Grady is a genuine line-breaker, and Ben Thomas offers game-management Costelow can’t always match. The forwards are closer than the table suggests: Alan Lawrence leads the entire URC in both carries (190) AND tackles (191), a staggering workload, with Daniel Thomas 2nd in tackles (187). Scarlets’ counter is Fletcher Anderson (3rd in carries with 163, 10th in tackles with 142). The decisive area is the breakdown and pace of the game. If Scarlets can slow Cardiff’s ball and force Sheedy/Thomas to kick in traffic, the home crowd and Joe Roberts’ strike-running can do the rest.
Match Forecast
This should be much closer than the standings suggest. Cardiff have lost four in a row, conceding 40 points per game on average during an SA tour that’s gutted their playoff hopes — and now have to travel to a Scarlets side that always treats Welsh derbies as its own private cup final. The home advantage (+3), the Scarlets H2H dominance (24–14 lifetime, both wins this season) and the direction of travel in Cardiff’s form outweigh Cardiff’s on-paper squad edge.
That said, this isn’t a slam dunk. Cardiff still have Josh Adams finishing at a try-every-77-minutes clip, Alan Lawrence and Daniel Thomas leading the URC in workload stats, and enough internationals to out-gun the Scarlets on two or three phases if they click. If Cardiff concede early the house of cards could fall again — but if they weather the first 20 minutes, the backline quality could get them over the line. A low-scoring Welsh wrestle feels right; a single try or a late penalty could decide it.
Scarlets to edge a nervy derby at home — Cardiff’s collapse is real, but a 5-point margin is the ceiling.