Six Nations 2026 · Round 5
Ireland
Scotland
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Championship Standings
After Round 4 — France and Scotland are level on 16 points at the top, with Ireland on 13. Scotland need to win here to have any realistic shot at the title; Ireland need to win big and hope France slip up against England.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | +79 | 16 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 4 | 3 | 1 | +21 | 16 |
| 3 |  Ireland | 4 | 3 | 1 | +16 | 13 |
| 4 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 2 | −24 | 9 |
| 5 |  England | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Wales | 4 | 0 | 4 | −96 | 1 |
Ireland
W3, L1Ireland have won three straight since the Paris humbling, but the manner of those wins tells the story — dominant at Twickenham (42–21), professional against Italy (20–13), and efficient against Wales (27–17). The attack is averaging 34 points per game across the last three rounds, and Crowley’s tactical kicking has improved with every outing. The concern is the defence — 87 points conceded in four games is the most in the Farrell era.
Scotland
W3, L1Scotland’s trajectory is remarkable. After losing to Italy in Rome on opening day, they’ve reeled off three consecutive wins — including that jaw-dropping 50–40 thriller against France at Murrayfield. Finn Russell is playing the rugby of his life, orchestrating 122 points in four games. The question is whether they can replicate that attacking verve away from Murrayfield — their only away win this championship was a nervy 26–23 at Cardiff.
Head-to-Head in Dublin
15 – 0 – 1
Ireland wins · Draws · Scotland wins (last 16 meetings in Dublin)
Ireland (15)Dublin has been a graveyard for Scotland. They have won just once at the Aviva Stadium — and you have to go back to 2010 for that solitary success (23–20). Since then, Ireland have won every single meeting in Dublin, often by commanding margins. Scotland’s last three visits yielded defeats of 17–13 (2024), 36–14 (2023 World Cup), and 26–5 (2022).
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2024 | Six Nations | Ireland 17–13 Scotland |
| Oct 2023 | World Cup | Ireland 36–14 Scotland |
| Mar 2022 | Six Nations | Ireland 26–5 Scotland |
| Dec 2020 | Autumn Nations Cup | Ireland 31–16 Scotland |
| Feb 2020 | Six Nations | Ireland 19–12 Scotland |
| Sep 2019 | World Cup | Ireland 27–3 Scotland |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Ireland 26 – Scotland 11. Ireland have won the last six meetings in Dublin by an average margin of 15 points.
Extended Form
Ireland9W, 4L
Wins against: Wales (27–17), Italy (20–13), Australia (46–19), Japan (41–10), England (27–22), Fiji (52–17), Argentina (22–19), Scotland (17–13, 2024). Losses to: France (27–42), South Africa (13–24), New Zealand (13–23, 13–26).
Ireland remain formidable at the Aviva — only the big three southern hemisphere sides have beaten them at home in the last two years. Their Dublin record in the Six Nations is immaculate: five straight home wins in the championship. The crowd factor is significant — Scotland have historically wilted in this atmosphere.
Scotland8W, 5L
Wins against: England (31–20, 26–23 in Cardiff), France (50–40), Portugal (106–7), Georgia (34–5), Samoa (41–12), Maori All Blacks (29–26). Losses to: Italy (15–18), Fiji (14–29), France (16–35), England (15–16), Ireland (32–18).
Scotland’s away record is a mixed bag. The France win was spectacular but came after losses to Italy and Fiji. In big Six Nations away games, they have a tendency to start slowly — they trailed 18–15 in Rome and 23–20 in Cardiff before fighting back. Dublin demands a fast start against an Ireland side that feeds off early momentum.
Ireland XV
Farrell makes four changes from the Wales win. Dan Sheehan, Josh van der Flier and Tommy O’Brien come into the starting XV, while Joe McCarthy replaces the injured James Ryan in the second row. Bundee Aki — back from suspension — provides a huge impact option off the bench. Doris captains from No. 8.
Scotland XV
Townsend makes three changes from the France thriller. Blair Kinghorn returns at fullback, Grant Gilchrist earns his milestone 75th cap at lock, and George Turner starts at hooker. Finn Russell — vice-captain and chief orchestrator of 122 points in four rounds — pulls the strings at 10. Sione Tuipulotu captains from inside centre.
Key Matchups
This is a far more competitive matchup than Ireland’s previous home games this championship. Scotland’s backline — Russell, Tuipulotu, Jones, Graham — has genuine star quality and pace to burn. The decisive battle is at half-back: if Russell can get front-foot ball and dictate tempo, Scotland have the weapons to hurt Ireland. But Ireland’s set piece and backrow are a clear level above — Doris, van der Flier and Conan will look to dominate the breakdown and starve Russell of quick ball. Ireland’s bench, with Aki and Kelleher, also gives them a significant edge in the final 20 minutes.
Match Forecast
Ireland’s home record is the decisive factor. Scotland have won once in Dublin since 2010 — and that was 16 years ago. Finn Russell is playing the tournament of his life, but the Aviva is a different challenge to Murrayfield. Ireland’s set piece, backrow dominance, and tactical discipline at home have been the foundation of a remarkable run — five straight Six Nations wins in Dublin, and they won’t let that slip on Super Saturday.
Scotland’s best chance is to play at the same frenetic pace that produced 50 points against France. But Ireland are far more disciplined defensively than France were that day, and the Doris-van der Flier-Conan backrow will target Russell’s distribution relentlessly. The wildcard is Scotland’s confidence — three straight wins breed belief, and if they can stay within a score at 60 minutes, Russell has the class to engineer a late comeback. But the smart money is on Ireland’s home advantage proving decisive.
Ireland to win by 8–12 points — Scotland will compete, but Dublin is where their Six Nations dreams go to die.