URC 2025/26 · Round 16
Stormers
Connacht
DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Championship Standings
Stormers sit 2nd, four points behind Glasgow with the same 11–3 record — still mathematically alive for top spot. Connacht are 9th on 39, clinging to the last playoff berth with Bulls breathing down their neck.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 14 | 11 | 3 | +192 | 55 |
| 2 | Stormers | 14 | 11 | 3 | +139 | 51 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +113 | 47 |
| 4 |  Leinster | 14 | 9 | 5 | +62 | 46 |
| 5 |  Lions | 14 | 8 | 5 | +36 | 43 |
| 6 |  Cardiff | 14 | 8 | 6 | −9 | 41 |
| 7 |  Munster | 14 | 8 | 6 | −25 | 41 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 14 | 8 | 6 | +57 | 40 |
| 9 | Connacht | 14 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Sharks | 14 | 6 | 7 | −26 | 33 |
| 11 |  Ospreys | 14 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 30 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 14 | 5 | 7 | −74 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 14 | 4 | 10 | −71 | 23 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 14 | 4 | 9 | −86 | 21 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 14 | 2 | 9 | −83 | 21 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 14 | 2 | 12 | −203 | 12 |
Stormers
W3, L2A mid-season wobble — two derby defeats to the Sharks and Lions — looked like genuine trouble, but the Stormers have rebounded with three straight URC wins, including a 32–19 scalping of the Bulls at Loftus. Back at DHL Stadium they’re a different beast: five wins from five URC home outings this season with an average winning margin north of 20 points. Last week’s Champions Cup quarter-final loss to Toulon (28–27) will sting — but it’s also proof they’re operating at a higher tier.
Connacht
W5, L0Connacht have been the story of the back half of the URC season — five straight wins, a 15–10 scalp over log-leaders Glasgow, and an interpro win in Belfast. The defensive numbers are the real tell: 72 points conceded across five games, averaging 14.4 per outing. But the last time they boarded a plane for Cape Town, in April 2025, they put 29 on the Stormers and still lost by five. Travel and DHL are a different kind of test.
Head-to-Head Record
4 – 0 – 1
Stormers wins · Draws · Connacht wins (last 5 meetings)
Stormers (4)Stormers own this fixture. They’ve won four of the last five URC meetings — and every single one in Cape Town, usually by comfortable margins. Connacht’s only win in the sequence was a 19–17 nail-biter in Galway back in February 2022. Since the URC began, Connacht have never beaten the Stormers on South African soil.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | URC | Stormers 34–29 Connacht |
| May 2024 | URC | Connacht 12–16 Stormers |
| May 2023 | URC | Stormers 43–25 Connacht |
| Sep 2022 | URC | Stormers 38–15 Connacht |
| Feb 2022 | URC | Connacht 19–17 Stormers |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Stormers 33 – Connacht 20. Average margin across five meetings: +13 to the Stormers, with three of their four wins by 14+ points.
Extended Form
Stormers11W, 3L (URC) · 3W, 1L (ECC)
URC: W vs Leinster 35–0, Ospreys 26–10, Scarlets 0–34 (A), Zebre 13–31 (A), Benetton 16–31 (A), Munster 21–27 (A), Lions 34–27, Bulls 13–8, Bulls 19–32 (A), Dragons 29–21, Edinburgh 33–14. L vs Sharks home/away and Lions away. Champions Cup: wins over Harlequins, Leicester (39–26), Stade Rochelais (42–21); QF loss Toulon 28–27.
Only three URC defeats in 14 — all away, all to South African rivals. The Stormers are built for a home push: an unbeaten record at DHL Stadium this URC season with a +100+ points differential there alone. Going toe-to-toe with Toulon in a one-point European QF is the ceiling — this squad is peaking at the right end of the campaign.
Connacht7W, 7L (URC) · 3W, 3L (ECC)
URC wins include the 15–10 shock over Glasgow, Ulster away (19–26), Scarlets (31–14), Sharks home (44–17), Benetton home (26–15), Ospreys home (21–14), Zebre away (31–15). Losses: Cardiff (A), Bulls (H), Munster (A), Ulster (H), Leinster (home and away), Dragons (A 48–28). ECC: wins over Montauban, Cardiff, beaten by Montpellier twice and lost last weekend 45–22.
Connacht away from Galway this season: 2W, 5L in URC — the wins at Zebre and Ulster; heavy defeats at Dragons (48–28), Leinster (52–17) and Montpellier (45–22) last week. A ten-hour flight and a Saturday 13:45 kickoff under a Cape Town autumn sun is a step up again. Their form is real, their travel record is not.
Stormers XV
Team not yet announced. Expect John Dobson to lean on his Springbok core — Frans Malherbe, Salmaan Moerat, Neethling Fouche, Deon Fourie, Evan Roos — with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at 10 and Damian Willemse fresh off the Toulon heartbreak in the back three. Warrick Gelant, Leolin Zas and Suleiman Hartzenberg likely round out the outside backs.
Connacht XV
Connacht team not yet announced. Bundee Aki and Mack Hansen are the headline acts — Aki at 12, Hansen either on the wing or at fullback. Finlay Bealham anchors the scrum; Cian Prendergast and Josh Murphy bring the carrying in a pack fronted by the excellent Sean Jansen (178 carries, 164 tackles — both URC-best). Jack Carty or Josh Ioane at 10, Caolin Blade at 9.
Key Matchups
The decisive zone is the collision — Connacht’s Sean Jansen leads the URC in both carries (178) and tackles (164), and with Josh Murphy and Cian Prendergast behind him their back row is arguably the competition’s most productive. But the Stormers pack is built differently: a Bok front row, Moerat’s lineout, and Evan Roos (9 URC tries, joint-leading) as the hammer at 8. Where this tilts decisively is the 10 jersey — Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has 89 points in 9 games and shapes a backline with Willemse, Gelant and Zas that is too sharp for a Connacht defence that’s been tidy but hasn’t faced this kind of outside threat all season.
Match Forecast
This is a classic Cape Town trap game for a European side flying in hot and having to reset body clocks in 72 hours. Connacht’s five-match run is real, but four of those wins were at Galway Sportsgrounds, and the fifth was at Zebre. The Stormers at DHL are 5–0 this URC season with a differential that dwarfs anything Connacht have faced on the road — and the Bok-stacked pack plus Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s kicking game is precisely the profile Connacht have struggled against on the road (Leinster 52–17, Dragons 48–28, Montpellier 45–22 last week).
The upset case leans on Jansen’s collision dominance and Hansen/Aki breaking the Stormers’ backfield open — both are realistic if Feinberg-Mngomezulu is off his game, which happens. If Connacht can keep it inside seven at the 60th minute, the Stormers’ Toulon hangover could bite. But that’s a lot of ifs. Call it a 2-3 try home win with Feinberg-Mngomezulu kicking the game out of reach in the second half.
Stormers by two scores — Connacht’s winning run ends the moment they land at CPT International.