Both sides arrive via the knockout route — Ulster sit 3rd in the URC and dispatched Stade Rochelais 41–24 in the quarter-final, while Exeter are 4th in the Premiership and edged Benetton 44–41 in Treviso to book this trip to Belfast.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ulster (URC) | 16 | 9 | 7 | +99 | 47 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs (Prem) | 17 | 9 | 7 | +45 | 44 |
Ulster's form splits sharply by competition. In Europe they're unbeaten — 41–24 over La Rochelle and a six-try statement booking this semi-final. The URC picture is murkier: a 41–14 hammering at Munster last weekend and a home loss to Leinster have left their playoff seeding vulnerable. Kingspan, though, has been kind in the Challenge Cup.
Exeter have rediscovered themselves in 2026 — a 38–14 thumping of Newcastle and a clinical home win over Sale bookended a knockout run that has them one step from Bilbao. The Benetton quarter-final was nail-biting: 44–41 won by a late Slade penalty in Treviso. Two recent Premiership defeats (Gloucester away, Northampton at home) suggest fatigue, but on a knockout stage they've been ruthless when it matters.
2 – 0 – 1
Ulster wins · Draws · Exeter wins (3 meetings)
Ulster have won both Belfast meetings, including a 52–24 demolition in the Champions Cup pool stage just 16 months ago in which Cormac Izuchukwu helped himself to a hat-trick. Exeter's only win came at Sandy Park in 2017. On this evidence, the venue tells the whole story.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | Champions Cup | Ulster 52–24 Exeter Chiefs |
| Jan 2017 | Champions Cup | Exeter Chiefs 31–19 Ulster |
| Oct 2016 | Champions Cup | Ulster 19–18 Exeter Chiefs |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Ulster 30 – Exeter 24. Ulster have won both at Kingspan; Exeter's only win came at Sandy Park.
Challenge Cup unbeaten: Stade Rochelais 41–24 (QF), Ospreys 28–24 (R16), Cheetahs 28–0 (away), Stade Francais 26–19, Racing 92 61–7. Bridging URC: hammered 41–14 at Munster, lost to Leinster 29–21, beat Edinburgh 40–19.
Five from five at Kingspan in the Challenge Cup, and the 61–7 demolition of Racing 92 hints at the ceiling when they're in rhythm. The URC slump is real but the European switch flips on at home.
Wins: Benetton 44–41 (CC QF away), Munster 31–21 (CC R16), Newcastle 38–14 (away), Sale 26–14, Cardiff 31–0. Losses: Gloucester 34–31 (away), Northampton 35–28 (home).
Exeter's knockout pedigree showed in Treviso — staying in a track meet against Benetton and trusting Slade's boot at the death. Their 31–0 shutout of Cardiff and the Munster scalp speak to a side that finds its A-game in Europe.
Lineups have not been confirmed. Tom O'Toole, Nick Timoney and Jude Postlethwaite are expected to return after coming through training. Callum Reid (foot) and Ben Carson (calf) are out after picking up knocks at Munster, and veteran hooker Rob Herring is also unavailable. Doubts remain over Angus Bell and Scott Wilson at prop.
Lineups have not been confirmed. England internationals Henry Slade and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso are expected to start, with Ross Vintcent anchoring the back row. Slade's late penalty won the quarter-final in Treviso — his calmness under pressure will be central to Exeter's plan again.
The decisive area is the pack. Ulster have been ruthless at Kingspan in Europe — Racing 92 61–7, Cheetahs 28–0, La Rochelle 41–24 — and Exeter conceded 41 points to Benetton last week. If Ulster's set piece dictates, Cooney and the back row can starve Slade of front-foot ball. Exeter's path to Bilbao runs through chaos: keep ball alive, exploit Feyi-Waboso in transition, and trust Slade to land the kicks.
Kingspan in Europe is doing the heavy lifting here. Ulster have not lost a Challenge Cup match all season and dispatched La Rochelle 41–24 in the QF with six tries. The H2H reinforces the venue story — they put 52 points on Exeter the last time these sides met, in Belfast in January 2025. Returning internationals shore up the pack, and Exeter conceded 41 in their quarter-final.
Exeter are dangerous — Slade's ice-cold finishing in Treviso and Feyi-Waboso's pace mean any loose Ulster moment becomes seven points. The URC form line (hammered at Munster, beaten by Leinster) is a real concern if it bleeds into European mode. But Murphy's side has consistently flicked the European switch at home, and a Bilbao final is the obvious motivator.
Ulster to win by 8–14 — Kingspan and the H2H tilt this hard toward the home side, despite Slade's threat.