URC 2025/26 · Round 15
Lions
Dragons
Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
Championship Standings
Lions are 7th on 38 points from 13 games — inside the top eight and surging after three consecutive home wins. Dragons are 15th on 20 points from 13, with just 2 wins all season. The 18-point gap tells the story, but the venue tells it louder — Emirates Airline Park at altitude is where the Lions bury touring sides.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 13 | 10 | 3 | +171 | 50 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 13 | 10 | 3 | +120 | 46 |
| 3 |  Ulster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +97 | 42 |
| 4 |  Leinster | 13 | 8 | 5 | +45 | 41 |
| 5 |  Cardiff | 13 | 8 | 5 | −3 | 40 |
| 6 |  Munster | 13 | 8 | 5 | −22 | 39 |
| 7 | Lions | 13 | 7 | 5 | +20 | 38 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 13 | 7 | 6 | +54 | 35 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 13 | 6 | 7 | +3 | 35 |
| 10 |  Ospreys | 13 | 5 | 6 | −25 | 29 |
| 11 |  Sharks | 13 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 29 |
| 12 |  Benetton | 13 | 5 | 6 | −53 | 28 |
| 13 |  Edinburgh | 13 | 4 | 9 | −52 | 23 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 13 | 4 | 8 | −69 | 21 |
| 15 | Dragons | 13 | 2 | 8 | −67 | 20 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 13 | 2 | 11 | −187 | 12 |
Lions
W3, D1, L1The Lions are on a tear. Three straight home wins — 34–22 over the Sharks, 24–10 over the Stormers, and a 54–17 demolition of Edinburgh — have turned Emirates Airline Park into a genuine fortress. The 52–17 loss to the Bulls in R11 looks increasingly like an outlier. Since that Bulls aberration, they’ve scored 112 points in three home games. The altitude, the pace, the second-half surges — visiting sides simply cannot sustain the intensity in Johannesburg. The 24–24 draw with the Ospreys in R10 was their other result in this stretch.
Dragons
W0, D1, L4The Dragons’ season is defined by narrow defeats and the occasional draw that feels like a loss. They were competitive at the Stormers last week — 29–21 is a respectable margin in Cape Town — but they’ve now lost to every quality opponent they’ve faced. The 22–20 loss at Munster and 22–19 at Cardiff were agonisingly close, but this is a team that cannot close games. Their R13 draw with Benetton (15–15) was the only point they’ve salvaged in this run. Now they face the second leg of a South African tour — altitude, fatigue, and a Lions side that just put 54 on Edinburgh at this venue.
Head-to-Head in Johannesburg
3 – 1 – 0
Lions wins · Draws · Dragons wins (last 4 meetings in Johannesburg)
Lions (3)The Lions have never lost to the Dragons in Johannesburg. The three wins have been comprehensive — 60–10 in the Challenge Cup, 49–24 and 33–25 in the URC. The only blemish is a 31–31 draw in the 2022/23 Challenge Cup. Including Newport, the Lions have won five of the last six meetings across all venues.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | Challenge Cup | Lions 60–10 Dragons |
| Oct 2024 | URC | Dragons 19–23 Lions |
| Dec 2023 | URC | Lions 49–24 Dragons |
| Dec 2022 | Challenge Cup | Lions 31–31 Dragons |
| Nov 2022 | URC | Lions 33–25 Dragons |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Lions 39 – Dragons 22 in the last five meetings. The Lions have outscored the Dragons by an average of 17 points.
Extended Form
Lions8W, 1D, 5L
Wins: Edinburgh (54–17), Stormers (24–10), Sharks (34–22), Sharks (23–22, away), Bulls (43–33), Ulster (49–31), Scarlets (29–18), Ospreys (29–28). Draw: Ospreys (24–24, away). Losses: Bulls (17–52), Stormers (27–34, away), Benetton (15–41, away), Zebre (20–22, away), Cardiff (20–33, away).
The Lions are a different beast at Emirates Airline Park — six of their eight wins have come at home, where they average 35 points per game. The 54–17 annihilation of Edinburgh was a statement, and the back-to-back SA derby wins over the Sharks and Stormers showed they can handle quality opposition. Away from home they’ve been inconsistent, but at altitude they are lethal.
Dragons2W, 3D, 8L
Wins: Zebre (28–17), Scarlets (21–18). Draws: Benetton (15–15), Ospreys (24–24). Losses: Stormers (21–29), Ospreys (13–19), Munster (20–22), Cardiff (19–22), Glasgow (0–49), Leinster (6–34), Ulster (21–42), Connacht (7–31).
The Dragons’ away record is catastrophic — two wins from thirteen on the road, with 49–0 at Glasgow and 34–6 at Leinster the lowlights. They’ve been competitive in Welsh derbies (one-score losses at Cardiff and Ospreys) but are hopelessly outmatched against top-half opposition. South African tours have been brutal: 48–12 at Stormers and 55–15 at Bulls last season, and 29–21 at Stormers just last week. Johannesburg at altitude will be worse.
Lions XV
Lineups have not yet been announced. The Lions are expected to name a strong side for this pivotal home fixture — they are chasing the top eight and have the depth to rotate without losing potency. Expect a similar XV to the one that dismantled Edinburgh 54–17 last week.
Dragons XV
Lineups have not yet been announced. The Dragons face the second leg of their South African tour after losing 29–21 to the Stormers in Cape Town last week. Fatigue, altitude acclimatisation, and the travel within SA all work against them. Dai Flanagan will need to manage his squad carefully, but the depth simply isn’t there.
Key Matchups
This is a clean sweep for the Lions across every meaningful matchup. The Dragons’ Welsh international backrow of Basham, Moriarty and Wainwright is their strongest unit and may compete at the breakdown, but the Lions’ pack is built for pace at altitude — they run sides into the ground in the final quarter. The touring fatigue compounds everything: the Dragons played in Cape Town last week at sea level and now face 1,750 metres of altitude in Johannesburg.
Match Forecast
Everything favours the Lions. They’ve won three straight at Emirates Airline Park by an aggregate margin of 63 points — 54–17, 24–10, 34–22. The altitude at 1,750 metres is a weapon in itself, and the Dragons arrive as the second leg of a South African tour, having lost 29–21 to the Stormers in Cape Town last week. The head-to-head is one-way traffic: Lions have never lost to Dragons in Johannesburg, with an average winning margin of 17 points across the last five meetings.
The Dragons’ only path to respectability is to compete at the breakdown through their international backrow and keep the scoreline manageable through 50 minutes. But the Lions have outscored opponents by an average of 15 points in the second half at home this season — that’s when the altitude bites, the touring legs give way, and the game turns from competitive to carnage.
Lions to run riot at altitude — the Dragons’ SA tour ends in a comprehensive defeat at Emirates Airline Park.