URC 2025/26 · Round 18
Ospreys
Scarlets
Brewery Field, Bridgend
Championship Standings
Ospreys sit 10th on 34 points — mathematically alive for nothing meaningful, but a Welsh derby win would salvage some pride after a season of road misery. Scarlets are 14th on 23 points, having won just four URC matches all year and lost five of their last six. This is a wooden-spoon-region derby with little at stake beyond local bragging rights and contract anxiety.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 15 | 11 | 4 | +150 | 55 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 15 | 11 | 4 | +130 | 51 |
| 3 |  Leinster | 15 | 10 | 5 | +70 | 51 |
| 4 |  Lions | 15 | 9 | 5 | +78 | 48 |
| 5 |  Ulster | 15 | 9 | 6 | +105 | 47 |
| 6 |  Munster | 15 | 9 | 6 | +5 | 46 |
| 7 |  Cardiff | 15 | 9 | 6 | −5 | 46 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 15 | 9 | 6 | +97 | 45 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 15 | 8 | 7 | +19 | 44 |
| 10 | Ospreys | 15 | 6 | 7 | −28 | 34 |
| 11 |  Sharks | 15 | 6 | 8 | −30 | 34 |
| 12 |  Edinburgh | 15 | 5 | 10 | −70 | 28 |
| 13 |  Benetton | 15 | 5 | 8 | −104 | 28 |
| 14 | Scarlets | 15 | 4 | 10 | −90 | 23 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 15 | 2 | 10 | −123 | 21 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 15 | 2 | 13 | −204 | 14 |
Ospreys
W2, L3The Ospreys keep finding ways to lose on the road — 21–14 at Connacht, 31–19 at Benetton, and a heartbreaking 24–21 at Cardiff in R17 where they led with 10 minutes left. Five of their seven URC defeats have come away from home. The R16 win over the Sharks at Brewery Field (21–17) was a defensive masterclass that showed what they can do at home, and they followed it by leaking a late Cardiff try to lose the Welsh derby they should've banked. The pattern is brutally clear: home pack, win; travel, lose by a score.
Scarlets
W1, L4Scarlets are a club in a slow-motion crisis — four wins all season, only one in their last six, and a brutal habit of losing tight games. The R16 (24–28 Cardiff) and R17 (21–23 Bulls) defeats at Parc y Scarlets were both winnable in the final 10 minutes; both slipped away. The Zebre win in R14 is the only tournament victory since February. Dwayne Peel's side travel here on a four-match URC losing run, with morale visibly fraying. The encouraging note: those last two losses were by a combined six points — they're competitive, just not closing.
Head-to-Head Record
13 – 1 – 4
Ospreys wins · Draws · Scarlets wins (last 18 meetings)
Ospreys (13)The Ospreys own this fixture — 13 wins from the last 18 across all competitions, including the last two meetings (a 26–19 URC win at Parc y Scarlets in December 2025 and a 36–14 Challenge Cup demolition at Brewery Field in April 2025). The only Scarlets bright spot in recent years was a 38–22 home win in March 2025. Welsh derbies between these two have averaged more than 50 combined points across the last six meetings.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | URC | Scarlets 19–26 Ospreys |
| Apr 2025 | Challenge Cup | Ospreys 36–14 Scarlets |
| Mar 2025 | URC | Scarlets 38–22 Ospreys |
| Dec 2024 | URC | Ospreys 23–22 Scarlets |
| Apr 2024 | URC | Scarlets 11–25 Ospreys |
| Dec 2023 | URC | Ospreys 31–9 Scarlets |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Ospreys 26 – Scarlets 18 across the last six meetings. The Ospreys have won five of those six, and at Brewery Field/Swansea.com Stadium they're unbeaten in their last four against the Scarlets.
Extended Form
Ospreys6W, 8L, 1D
URC wins: Stormers (37–24 H, R1), Zebre (24–0 H, R2), Cardiff (33–22 H, R8), Scarlets (26–19 A, R5), Dragons (19–13 H, R12), Ulster (21–10 H, R13), Sharks (21–17 H, R16). URC losses: Bulls (40–53 A), Stormers (10–26 A), Glasgow (17–42 H), Edinburgh (17–19 A), Munster (10–26 H), Benetton (19–31 A), Connacht (21–14 A), Cardiff (24–21 A, R17). Draw: Lions 24–24 H. CC: 2W 3L pool exit.
Across the URC season the Ospreys are 6–7–1 with a points difference of −28. The home/away split is the headline: 4–2–1 at Brewery Field, 2–6 on the road. The R13 Ulster win is their only scalp against a top-six side this year; every other away trip against quality has ended in defeat by 5–25 points. The Cardiff defeat in R17 was a gut punch — a Welsh derby they led for 70 minutes — and the kind of result that defines a season trapped in 10th.
Scarlets4W, 11L
URC wins: Edinburgh (30–24 H), Dragons (32–15 H), Bulls (23–22 H, narrow), Zebre (36–17 H). URC losses: Glasgow (3–45 A), Edinburgh (43–18 A), Sharks (32–27 A), Ulster (31–20 A), Munster (29–8 A), Cardiff (24–15 A), Stormers (29–17 H), Connacht (24–23 A, agonising), Ospreys (26–19 H, R5), Leinster (36–19 A), Connacht (31–14 A), Cardiff (28–24 H), Bulls (23–21 H). ERCC: pool exit.
Scarlets' season is a tale of two contrasting trends: at Parc y Scarlets they've been competitive in almost every game but unable to close, dropping six matches at home by an average of 5 points. Away from home they've been pasted — averaging just 14 points per away outing and shipping 30+. The Welsh derby record is the worst of any Welsh side: 0–3 against Cardiff and Ospreys this season, scoring 60, conceding 78.
Ospreys XV
Lineups not yet announced — Mark Jones names his XV on Thursday. With Wales done for the season, expect Jac Morgan back at openside, Dan Edwards (URC top point-scorer for the Ospreys) at 10, and Keiran Williams in midfield. The questions are around the front row — Nicky Smith and Rhys Henry have been carrying knocks — and whether Iestyn Hopkins keeps his place after a quiet outing at Cardiff. Keelan Giles and Jack Walsh remain the strike-runner threats out wide.
Scarlets XV
Lineups not yet announced. Dwayne Peel will be tempted to roll out his strongest possible XV after consecutive narrow home losses — expect Sam Costelow at 10 and Tomi Lewis on the wing. Henry O'Connor and Vaea Fifita anchor a backrow that has lacked impact this season. The set-piece, with Wyn Jones returning from injury, is where the Scarlets can compete; the Ospreys' lineout has been wobbly in recent weeks.
Key Matchups
The Ospreys hold an edge almost everywhere: Jac Morgan and Harri Deaves are the URC's most prolific tackling pair, Dan Edwards is the most reliable kicker on the field, and Keiran Williams gives them gain-line dominance Scarlets can't match. The Scarlets' best route is the set-piece — their lineout has functioned at 91% this season and Wyn Jones' return shores up the scrum. If they can starve the Ospreys back three by dominating territory through Costelow's boot, the close margins of their last two defeats suggest this stays a one-score game. But every battle in close quarters favours the home pack.
Match Forecast
Every dimension of the scorecard tilts to the Ospreys: home form, H2H dominance (13 of the last 18, four straight at Brewery Field), squad quality with internationals returning, and a Scarlets side that has lost four URC games on the spin. Net +15 puts this firmly in the clear-favourite tier — expect Ospreys by 12–18. Dan Edwards' boot and Keiran Williams' carrying should give the home side enough territorial control to win comfortably, with Jac Morgan and Harri Deaves swarming the Scarlets breakdown.
The caveat: Scarlets' last two defeats came by a combined six points, so they're not far off competitive — if Sam Costelow has a kicking masterclass and the Scarlets pack lands their lineout at 95%, this could be a 3–7 point game. The Ospreys' R17 collapse at Cardiff also reminds us they're entirely capable of bottling a winning position. But at home, against the worst Welsh derby record in the URC, the base case is a confident Ospreys win.
Ospreys by 13 — home form and H2H dominance settle a derby that Scarlets have shown no signs of being ready to win.