Connacht sit 10th on 25 points — firmly in the bottom half but only 5 adrift of the playoff places with games in hand. Scarlets are 15th on 16 points, with only Zebre below them.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | +150 | 45 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +67 | 41 | |
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +35 | 40 | |
| 4 | 12 | 8 | 4 | +15 | 39 | |
| 5 | 10 | 8 | 2 | +113 | 36 | |
| 6 | 11 | 7 | 4 | +83 | 36 | |
| 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | −20 | 33 | |
| 8 | 11 | 6 | 5 | +5 | 30 | |
| 9 | 12 | 5 | 5 | −13 | 29 | |
| 10 | 11 | 4 | 7 | −21 | 25 | |
| 11 | 10 | 4 | 5 | −36 | 24 | |
| 12 | 11 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 23 | |
| 13 | 12 | 4 | 7 | −65 | 23 | |
| 14 | 12 | 3 | 7 | −50 | 20 | |
| 15 | 11 | 3 | 7 | −71 | 16 | |
| 16 | 11 | 2 | 9 | −154 | 12 |
Connacht’s season has been a rollercoaster. They stunned league leaders Glasgow 15–10 at the Dexcom in their last outing — a genuine statement result — but that followed three defeats in four, including a bruising 48–28 loss at Dragons. When they’re at home and competing, they can trouble anyone. The problem is consistency.
A difficult campaign for the Scarlets — 15th in the table tells its own story. They beat Ulster 27–22 at home and drew 20–20 at Benetton, but the 28–5 hammering at Dragons and a 0–34 whitewash against the Stormers earlier in the season exposed a squad that lacks depth. Away from Parc y Scarlets, they’ve won just twice all season.
8 – 0 – 5
Connacht wins · Draws · Scarlets wins (13 meetings at this venue)
Connacht have won 8 of 13 home meetings against the Scarlets — and crucially, have won the last two at the Dexcom convincingly: 26–10 in 2024 and 36–14 in 2022. Overall, Connacht have won the last four meetings across all venues.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | URC | Scarlets 23–24 Connacht |
| Mar 2024 | URC | Connacht 26–10 Scarlets |
| Oct 2022 | URC | Connacht 36–14 Scarlets |
| Feb 2022 | URC | Scarlets 23–29 Connacht |
| Mar 2021 | Pro14 | Scarlets 41–36 Connacht |
| Nov 2020 | Pro14 | Connacht 14–20 Scarlets |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Connacht 28 – Scarlets 22 in the last six meetings. Connacht have won four straight.
Wins: Glasgow Warriors (15–10, URC), Zebre (31–15, URC), Montauban (75–14, EPCR), Black Lion (52–0, EPCR), Sharks (44–17, URC), Benetton (26–15, URC). Losses: Leinster (×2: 23–34, 17–52), Ulster (24–29), Dragons (28–48), Montpellier (31–33, EPCR), Ospreys (21–24), Munster (15–17), Bulls (27–28), Cardiff (8–14).
Connacht can beat teams outside the top tier — the Glasgow scalp was a genuine statement — but they’ve lost all nine matches against higher-ranked opposition. The home record is the key: wins over Glasgow, Sharks, Benetton and Black Lion at the Dexcom, but losses to Leinster, Ulster and Bulls on the same ground.
Wins: Ulster (27–22, at home), Cardiff (21–17, away), Glasgow Warriors (23–0, at home). Draw: Benetton (20–20, away). Losses include: Edinburgh (19–24), Northampton (28–43, EPCR), Dragons (5–28), Ospreys (26–19 at home), Bordeaux (21–50, EPCR), Stormers (0–34 at home), Munster (21–34 at home).
A brutal 12 months for the Scarlets. Just 3 wins from 15 — though all three came at home, including the standout 23–0 shutout of Glasgow. Away from Parc y Scarlets, they’ve been demolished repeatedly, conceding 40+ points on four occasions. Galway is not a happy hunting ground for this squad.
Five changes from the Glasgow win, with 18 players unavailable due to injury and international duty. John Devine makes his first start for the province at outside centre — the former Ireland U20 Grand Slam winner partners Cathal Forde in midfield. Chay Mullins comes in on the left wing, Colm Reilly replaces the injured Caolin Blade at scrum-half. Paul Boyle captains from openside.
Fletcher Anderson captains the Scarlets for the first time. The experienced Gareth Davies starts at scrum-half — 75 caps of international savvy — behind a pack featuring Jake Ball and Sam Lousi in the second row. Johnny Williams and Joe Roberts form a physical midfield partnership. Carwyn Leggatt-Jones continues his development at fly-half.
Connacht’s decisive edge is at half-back — Josh Ioane is a proven international fly-half, comfortably the most accomplished 10 on the park, and Reilly brings tempo and distribution. The Scarlets’ pack, anchored by the veteran Ball and the physical Williams in midfield, will keep them competitive up front. But Anderson is captaining for the first time and the Scarlets have leaked points away from home all season. Connacht’s backrow of Boyle, Murphy and Jansen should dominate the breakdown.
Connacht should have too much for a Scarlets side that has won just three times all season. The Dexcom Stadium has been a fortress in recent weeks — beating Glasgow 15–10 was a statement — and Connacht have won the last four meetings against the Scarlets across all venues. Josh Ioane’s game management, Boyle’s leadership, and the home crowd should be enough to control this fixture.
The Scarlets’ best hope is the set piece — Ball and Lousi are sizeable operators — and the experience of Gareth Davies at 9. But their away record is woeful, they’ve conceded 40+ points on four occasions this season, and a trip to the west of Ireland in March is rarely kind to struggling Welsh sides. Connacht by two scores.
Connacht to win comfortably at the Dexcom — the Scarlets have nothing to suggest they can reverse their away-day woes.