URC 2025/26URC 2025/26 · Round 2 (Rescheduled)
Connacht

Connacht

v
Scarlets

Scarlets

Friday 13 March 2026 · 7:45 PM GMT
Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Tournament

Championship Standings

Connacht sit 10th on 25 points — firmly in the bottom half but only 5 adrift of the playoff places with games in hand. Scarlets are 15th on 16 points, with only Zebre below them.

PosTeamPWLPDPts
1
Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors
1293+15045
2
LeinsterLeinster
1284+6741
3
CardiffCardiff
1284+3540
4
MunsterMunster
1284+1539
5
StormersStormers
1082+11336
6
UlsterUlster
1174+8336
7
LionsLions
1174−2033
8
BullsBulls
1165+530
9
OspreysOspreys
1255−1329
10
ConnachtConnacht
1147−2125
11
SharksSharks
1045−3624
12
EdinburghEdinburgh
1147+623
13
BenettonBenetton
1247−6523
14
DragonsDragons
1237−5020
15
ScarletsScarlets
1137−7116
16
ZebreZebre
1129−15412
2026 Form

Connacht

W2, L3
3L streak
WR12: Connacht v Glasgow (H)15–10+5
WR11: Zebre v Connacht (A)15–31+16
LR10: Connacht v Leinster (H)23–34−11
LR8: Connacht v Ulster (H)24–29−5
LR7: Dragons v Connacht (A)48–28−20
PF 121PA 136
-15 PD

Connacht’s season has been a rollercoaster. They stunned league leaders Glasgow 15–10 at the Dexcom in their last outing — a genuine statement result — but that followed three defeats in four, including a bruising 48–28 loss at Dragons. When they’re at home and competing, they can trouble anyone. The problem is consistency.

Scarlets

W2, L3
LR12: Edinburgh v Scarlets (A)24–19−5
WR10: Scarlets v Ulster (H)27–22+5
LR8: Dragons v Scarlets (A)28–5−23
LR7: Scarlets v Ospreys (H)19–26−7
WR6: Cardiff v Scarlets (A)17–21+4
PF 94PA 117
-23 PD

A difficult campaign for the Scarlets — 15th in the table tells its own story. They beat Ulster 27–22 at home and drew 20–20 at Benetton, but the 28–5 hammering at Dragons and a 0–34 whitewash against the Stormers earlier in the season exposed a squad that lacks depth. Away from Parc y Scarlets, they’ve won just twice all season.

History

Head-to-Head in Galway

8 – 0 – 5

Connacht wins · Draws · Scarlets wins (13 meetings at this venue)

ConnachtConnacht (8)
(5) ScarletsScarlets
8W
5W

Connacht have won 8 of 13 home meetings against the Scarlets — and crucially, have won the last two at the Dexcom convincingly: 26–10 in 2024 and 36–14 in 2022. Overall, Connacht have won the last four meetings across all venues.

Recent Results

DateCompetitionResult
Oct 2024URCScarlets 23–24 Connacht
Mar 2024URCConnacht 26–10 Scarlets
Oct 2022URCConnacht 36–14 Scarlets
Feb 2022URCScarlets 23–29 Connacht
Mar 2021Pro14Scarlets 41–36 Connacht
Nov 2020Pro14Connacht 14–20 Scarlets

Average score in the last 6 meetings: Connacht 28 – Scarlets 22 in the last six meetings. Connacht have won four straight.

Last 12 Months

Extended Form

Connacht6W, 9L

Wins: Glasgow Warriors (15–10, URC), Zebre (31–15, URC), Montauban (75–14, EPCR), Black Lion (52–0, EPCR), Sharks (44–17, URC), Benetton (26–15, URC). Losses: Leinster (×2: 23–34, 17–52), Ulster (24–29), Dragons (28–48), Montpellier (31–33, EPCR), Ospreys (21–24), Munster (15–17), Bulls (27–28), Cardiff (8–14).

Connacht can beat teams outside the top tier — the Glasgow scalp was a genuine statement — but they’ve lost all nine matches against higher-ranked opposition. The home record is the key: wins over Glasgow, Sharks, Benetton and Black Lion at the Dexcom, but losses to Leinster, Ulster and Bulls on the same ground.

Scarlets3W, 1D, 11L

Wins: Ulster (27–22, at home), Cardiff (21–17, away), Glasgow Warriors (23–0, at home). Draw: Benetton (20–20, away). Losses include: Edinburgh (19–24), Northampton (28–43, EPCR), Dragons (5–28), Ospreys (26–19 at home), Bordeaux (21–50, EPCR), Stormers (0–34 at home), Munster (21–34 at home).

A brutal 12 months for the Scarlets. Just 3 wins from 15 — though all three came at home, including the standout 23–0 shutout of Glasgow. Away from Parc y Scarlets, they’ve been demolished repeatedly, conceding 40+ points on four occasions. Galway is not a happy hunting ground for this squad.

Team News
Connacht

Connacht XV

Five changes from the Glasgow win, with 18 players unavailable due to injury and international duty. John Devine makes his first start for the province at outside centre — the former Ireland U20 Grand Slam winner partners Cathal Forde in midfield. Chay Mullins comes in on the left wing, Colm Reilly replaces the injured Caolin Blade at scrum-half. Paul Boyle captains from openside.

Forwards
1Denis Buckley
2Dylan Tierney-Martin
3Jack Aungier
4David O’Connor
5Joe Joyce
6Josh Murphy
7Paul Boyle(c)
8Sean Jansen
Backs
15Sam Gilbert
14Shane Jennings
13John Devine
12Cathal Forde
11Chay Mullins
10Josh Ioane
9Colm Reilly
Replacements
16Eoin de Buitléar
17Peter Dooley
18Fiachna Barrett
19Niall Murray
20Sean O’Brien
21Ben Murphy
22Sean Naughton
23Oisín McCormack
Scarlets

Scarlets XV

Fletcher Anderson captains the Scarlets for the first time. The experienced Gareth Davies starts at scrum-half — 75 caps of international savvy — behind a pack featuring Jake Ball and Sam Lousi in the second row. Johnny Williams and Joe Roberts form a physical midfield partnership. Carwyn Leggatt-Jones continues his development at fly-half.

Forwards
1Kemsley Mathias
2Marnus van der Merwe
3Henry Thomas
4Sam Lousi
5Jake Ball
6Max Douglas
7Jarrod Taylor
8Fletcher Anderson(c)
Backs
15Ioan Jones
14Jac Davies
13Joe Roberts
12Johnny Williams
11Macs Page
10Carwyn Leggatt-Jones
9Gareth Davies
Replacements
16Harry Thomas
17Sam O’Connor
18Harri O’Connor
19Jac Price
20Dan Davis
21Archie Hughes
22Gabe McDonald
23Tomi Lewis
Tactical

Key Matchups

Halfbacks
Reilly / Ioane
Connacht
G. Davies / Leggatt-Jones
Centres
Forde / Devine
Close
Williams / Roberts
Backrow
Murphy / Boyle / Jansen
Connacht
Douglas / Taylor / Anderson
Scrum
Buckley / Tierney-Martin / Aungier
Close
Mathias / van der Merwe / Thomas
Lineout
O’Connor / Joyce
Close
Lousi / Ball
Back Three
Gilbert / Jennings / Mullins
Close
Jones / J. Davies / Page

Connacht’s decisive edge is at half-back — Josh Ioane is a proven international fly-half, comfortably the most accomplished 10 on the park, and Reilly brings tempo and distribution. The Scarlets’ pack, anchored by the veteran Ball and the physical Williams in midfield, will keep them competitive up front. But Anderson is captaining for the first time and the Scarlets have leaked points away from home all season. Connacht’s backrow of Boyle, Murphy and Jansen should dominate the breakdown.

Prediction Scorecard
Scarlets edgeConnacht edge →
Home Advantage
+2
Form
+2
H2H Record
+2
Squad Strength
+1
Set Piece
+1
Backline Quality
+1
Standings Gap
+2
Net Score+11
Projection
Connacht 70% · CON 28 – SCA 16
Prediction

Match Forecast

Projected ScoreCON 28 – SCA 16
Win ProbabilityConnacht 70%
Predicted Margin10–15 pts

Connacht should have too much for a Scarlets side that has won just three times all season. The Dexcom Stadium has been a fortress in recent weeks — beating Glasgow 15–10 was a statement — and Connacht have won the last four meetings against the Scarlets across all venues. Josh Ioane’s game management, Boyle’s leadership, and the home crowd should be enough to control this fixture.

The Scarlets’ best hope is the set piece — Ball and Lousi are sizeable operators — and the experience of Gareth Davies at 9. But their away record is woeful, they’ve conceded 40+ points on four occasions this season, and a trip to the west of Ireland in March is rarely kind to struggling Welsh sides. Connacht by two scores.

Connacht to win comfortably at the Dexcom — the Scarlets have nothing to suggest they can reverse their away-day woes.