URC 2025/26 · Round 17
Cardiff Rugby
Ospreys
Cardiff Arms Park
Championship Standings
Cardiff sit 7th on 46 points — level on points with Ulster and Munster and still very much alive in the top-eight race with two rounds to play. Ospreys are 10th on 34 points, the playoff picture gone but with a Welsh derby pride scalp on offer against the side that beat them 33–22 in Swansea on New Year's Day.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 15 | 11 | 4 | +150 | 55 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 15 | 11 | 4 | +130 | 51 |
| 3 |  Leinster | 15 | 10 | 5 | +70 | 51 |
| 4 |  Lions | 15 | 9 | 5 | +78 | 48 |
| 5 |  Ulster | 15 | 9 | 6 | +105 | 47 |
| 6 |  Munster | 15 | 9 | 6 | +5 | 46 |
| 7 | Cardiff | 15 | 9 | 6 | −5 | 46 |
| 8 |  Bulls | 15 | 9 | 6 | +97 | 45 |
| 9 |  Connacht | 15 | 8 | 7 | +19 | 44 |
| 10 | Ospreys | 15 | 6 | 7 | −28 | 34 |
| 11 |  Sharks | 15 | 6 | 8 | −30 | 34 |
| 12 |  Edinburgh | 15 | 5 | 10 | −70 | 28 |
| 13 |  Benetton | 15 | 5 | 8 | −104 | 28 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 15 | 4 | 10 | −90 | 23 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 15 | 2 | 10 | −123 | 21 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 15 | 2 | 13 | −204 | 14 |
Cardiff Rugby
W2, L3Cardiff have lurched through the back half of the season — the 8–7 smash-and-grab over Leinster in February was a season-defining result, but the South African tour that followed was a disaster (40–7 at Loftus, 21–15 at Kings Park) and they also got bounced from the Challenge Cup 38–35 at Benetton. The R16 win at Parc y Scarlets — 28–24, built on a late Callum Sheedy penalty — snapped a rough patch and keeps the top-eight maths alive. Points differential tells the story: −5 for the season, easily the worst of any side in the top half. They need to win ugly and win at home.
Ospreys
W3, L2The Ospreys' 21–17 upset of the Sharks at Brewery Field last week was the standout Welsh performance of R16 — Dan Edwards kicked 11 points and they defended the edge of their own 22 for the final ten minutes. It follows the same pattern all season though: competent at home (four wins from six), porous on the road (one away win all year). Four losses in six away trips between Benetton, Connacht, Ulster (CC), and earlier Edinburgh tells you what this side is. A Friday-night Cardiff Arms Park trip in April doesn't fit the winnable list.
Head-to-Head: Welsh Derby
4 – 2 – 13
Cardiff wins · Draws · Ospreys wins (last 19 meetings)
Cardiff Rugby (4)The long view is brutal for Cardiff — the Ospreys have won 13 of the last 19 meetings across all competitions, and Cardiff haven't won a home derby since the 29–20 victory in August 2020. But the most recent five have been a genuine coin flip: Ospreys 33–22 on New Year's Day, Cardiff 36–19 in Swansea last April, a 13–13 draw in Cardiff on New Year's Day 2025, Ospreys 33–29 in June 2024, Ospreys 27–21 in January 2024. Split three-to-two in the Ospreys' favour with a draw — the historical dominance has eroded to a one-score toss-up.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | URC | Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff |
| Apr 2025 | URC | Ospreys 19–36 Cardiff |
| Jan 2025 | URC | Cardiff 13–13 Ospreys |
| Jun 2024 | URC | Cardiff 29–33 Ospreys |
| Jan 2024 | URC | Ospreys 27–21 Cardiff |
| Apr 2023 | URC | Ospreys 21–38 Cardiff |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the last five meetings, Ospreys 25 – Cardiff 25 — a dead-level average. The R-season earlier fixture in Swansea in January was the first meeting of 2025/26, Ospreys running out 33–22 winners, which means Cardiff are owed a home-derby correction.
Extended Form
Cardiff Rugby9W, 6L in URC; 3W, 3L in Challenge Cup
URC wins: Lions (33–20 H), Connacht (14–8 H), Dragons (24–17 A), Edinburgh (20–19 H), Zebre (29–14 A), Dragons (22–19 H), Benetton (17–8 H), Leinster (8–7 H), Scarlets (28–24 A). URC losses: Munster (20–23 A), Scarlets (17–21 H), Ospreys (22–33 A), Ulster (14–21 A), Bulls (7–40 A), Sharks (15–21 A). CC: W Ulster, W Racing, W Cheetahs; L Stade Français, L Exeter, L Benetton QF.
Cardiff's URC season is a study in home-and-away split: eight of their nine wins involved them as favourites at the Arms Park or raiding Zebre/Dragons/Scarlets, while every loss bar the Scarlets home slip came on the road. The Leinster 8–7 and Ulster home scalp earlier in the year are the marquee results. The full-season numbers — scoring for 372, against 377 — say exactly what their position says: a genuine seventh, with nothing separating them from Munster (6th) or Bulls (8th).
Ospreys6W, 7L in URC; 2W, 3L in Challenge Cup
URC wins: Zebre (24–0 H), Dragons (19–13 H), Ulster (21–10 H), Cardiff (33–22 H), Scarlets (26–19 A), Sharks (21–17 H). URC losses: Bulls (12–41 A), Stormers (10–26 A), Glasgow (17–42 H), Edinburgh (17–19 A), Munster (10–26 H), Benetton (19–31 A), Connacht (14–21 A). Draws: Dragons 19–19 A, Lions 24–24 H. CC: W Montauban, W Connacht; L Zebre, L Montpellier, L Ulster.
Ospreys have one URC away win all season — the 26–19 smash-and-grab at Scarlets in December. Bulls 40–53 away, Stormers 10–26, Edinburgh 17–19, Benetton 19–31, Connacht 14–21 — it's a consistent road struggle. At home they're credible (six wins, two draws) but the moment they leave Brewery Field or the Swansea.com they shrink. That the Sharks win last week was at home, not on the road, is the tell.
Cardiff Rugby XV
Lineups not yet announced. Matt Sherratt should have Welsh internationals back: Jac Morgan (Wales captain) plays for Ospreys and so lines up on the other side; Corey Domachowski, Ellis Jenkins, and Josh Adams are all available after the Six Nations window and the IRFU release period. Callum Sheedy kicked the decisive points at Scarlets in R16 and should start at 10. Ben Thomas at 12 and Rey Lee-Lo at 13 — when fit — remain the preferred midfield. The pack needs to dominate the collision count with the Ospreys front row.
Ospreys XV
Lineups not yet announced. Mark Jones has been juggling Welsh international release rhythms all season. Dan Edwards (17 URC points last week) at fly-half is the reliable goalkicker. Keiran Williams at 12 is the attacking pivot; Jac Morgan is the Welsh captain and plays at openside for Ospreys. Reuben Morgan-Williams at 9 and the tight five built around Adam Beard and Dewi Lake has been their most competitive shape. The away pack has conceded 3+ scrum penalties in five different road games this season.
Key Matchups
The decisive matchup is the set piece — Cardiff have tried to bully the Ospreys pack in every recent meeting and the Ospreys' away scrum has been shoved back all season. Jac Morgan on the openside for Ospreys against his international back-row mate Ellis Jenkins is the marquee collision — whichever side wins that battle wins the breakdown speed contest. Behind the scrum the Ospreys back three of Keelan Giles, Iestyn Hopkins and Jack Walsh remain genuine strike runners and Cardiff's defensive width has been iffy on turnover — but the Ospreys have struggled to build sustained phase attacks away from home all season. The motivation gap is enormous: Cardiff have to win this to keep top-eight alive, Ospreys are already eliminated.
Match Forecast
Cardiff have to win this — seventh on 46 points with two rounds to play, every loss between now and May effectively ends their top-eight campaign. The scorecard lands at net +11: home advantage, set-piece edge, and a gaping standings-motivation gap combine to give Matt Sherratt's side the clear edge. Ospreys have one URC away win all season, haven't scored 25+ on the road since the draw at Dragons in October, and travel to the Arms Park with nothing at stake.
The caveats are real but containable. Ospreys won the first derby 33–22 at Brewery Field and upset the Sharks last week — Dan Edwards's goalkicking and Jac Morgan's breakdown work can drag a game close if Cardiff let them. Cardiff's points differential (−5 for the URC season) is a reminder that they don't thrash teams; the 8–7 Leinster win is more characteristic than a blowout. Expect a tight first half, Cardiff's set piece to apply pressure from 50 minutes on, and Sheedy's boot to close it out.
Cardiff by two scores — the derby correction, the home fortress, and a Cardiff side playing for their playoff life against an Ospreys team already eliminated.