URC 2025/26 · Round 18
Scarlets
Dragons
Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Championship Standings
A Welsh derby at the bottom of the table — Scarlets 14th on 25 points (4W, 1D, 12L, −99), Dragons 15th on 25 points (3W, 3D, 11L, −131). Both eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, both fighting only for pride and points-difference. Two points and 32 PD separate them: a try-scoring win for the visitors would flip the order, while a Scarlets bonus-point win would all-but-bury Dragons in 15th heading into the final round.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 18 | 13 | 5 | +141 | 64 |
| 2 |  Stormers | 18 | 12 | 5 | +160 | 59 |
| 3 |  Leinster | 17 | 11 | 6 | +91 | 58 |
| 4 |  Bulls | 17 | 11 | 6 | +134 | 54 |
| 5 |  Cardiff | 18 | 11 | 7 | −19 | 54 |
| 6 |  Lions | 17 | 10 | 6 | +66 | 53 |
| 7 |  Connacht | 18 | 10 | 8 | +47 | 53 |
| 8 |  Munster | 17 | 10 | 7 | +13 | 51 |
| 9 |  Ulster | 18 | 9 | 8 | +74 | 50 |
| 10 |  Sharks | 17 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 41 |
| 11 |  Ospreys | 17 | 7 | 8 | −24 | 39 |
| 12 |  Edinburgh | 18 | 7 | 11 | −77 | 38 |
| 13 |  Benetton | 17 | 6 | 9 | −140 | 33 |
| 14 | Scarlets | 17 | 4 | 12 | −99 | 25 |
| 15 | Dragons | 17 | 3 | 11 | −131 | 25 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 17 | 2 | 15 | −240 | 15 |
Scarlets
W1, L4 (last 5 URC)One win from five and the bonus point keeps slipping away — 23–21 to the Bulls, 28–24 to Cardiff, both at home, both winnable. The Welsh derby loss at Ospreys last weekend was the tone-setter: Scarlets had territory, possession and were still found wanting at the death. Dwayne Peel's side has not strung two URC wins together since November and is now closing out a season that will end with 5 or 6 wins from 18 — the lowest tally in the regional era. The only positive is that the Zebre 36–17 demolition came in this same building.
Dragons
W1, L4 (last 5 URC)One URC win in five — a 19–18 squeaker at Zebre — and a brutal 47–7 home humiliation by the Bulls bookending a stretch where Dragons have shipped 152 points across five rounds. The Edinburgh loss last weekend at Rodney Parade ended any flicker of momentum from a useful run in the Challenge Cup, where they beat Zebre twice (in the QF) and Stade Français before falling to Montpellier. Filo Tiatia's side fights — every game has been competitive bar the Bulls — but the cumulative attrition of a six-win season is visible. They arrive in Llanelli on a four-game URC losing run.
Head-to-Head — Welsh Derby
13 – 0 – 5
Scarlets wins · Draws · Dragons wins (last 18 meetings)
Scarlets (13)Scarlets have dominated this fixture historically — 13 wins from the last 18 meetings — but Dragons have flipped the recent script. The 28–5 hammering at Rodney Parade on New Year's Day was Dragons' biggest derby win in years and their first over Scarlets since January 2024 (13–12). Scarlets have won the last four meetings at Parc y Scarlets by an average of 19 points, including the 32–15 New Year's Day win in 2025, the 32–15 June 2024 final-day result and the 33–17 result on the same fixture in 2023. The venue matters: Dragons have not won in Llanelli since April 2022 (38–27, also their last away derby win).
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | URC | Dragons 28–5 Scarlets |
| Apr 2025 | URC | Dragons 23–31 Scarlets |
| Jan 2025 | URC | Scarlets 32–15 Dragons |
| Jun 2024 | URC | Scarlets 32–15 Dragons |
| Jan 2024 | URC | Dragons 13–12 Scarlets |
| Apr 2023 | URC | Dragons 31–14 Scarlets |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Scarlets 25 – Dragons 19 across the last 10 meetings. At Parc y Scarlets across the last six: Scarlets 28 – Dragons 17. The away side has won this fixture just twice at this venue since 2014.
Extended Form
Scarlets4W, 1D, 12L (URC season)
URC wins — Ulster 27–22 (H, Jan), Glasgow 23–0 (H, Nov), Zebre 36–17 (H, Mar), Cardiff 21–17 (A, Dec). Draw — Benetton 20–20 (A, Jan). Losses include — Bulls 21–23 (H), Cardiff 24–28 (H), Leinster 19–36 (A), Connacht 14–31 (A), Edinburgh 19–24 (A), Ospreys 26–19 (H, Dec) and 20–27 (A, May), Dragons 5–28 (A), Stormers 0–34 (H), Munster 21–34 (H), Sharks 19–29 (A), Lions 18–29 (A).
Just four URC wins in 17 with a −99 points difference — only Dragons and Zebre have shipped more. The 23–0 demolition of Glasgow at home in November is the season high-water mark; the 0–34 loss to the Stormers and the 5–28 in Newport are the lows. Scarlets have lost more home games (5) than they have won (3) and have no away wins in the URC since beating Cardiff in December. The pattern is consistent — competitive for 60 minutes, undone by the final quarter.
Dragons3W, 3D, 11L (URC season)
URC wins — Sharks (H, draw 17–17 reclassified), Zebre 19–18 (A, Apr), Connacht 48–28 (H, Dec), Newcastle CC 35–12 (CC). Draws — Sharks 17–17 (H), Ospreys 19–19 (H), Benetton 15–15 (H). URC losses — Bulls 7–47 (H), Glasgow 0–49 (A), Leinster 10–24 (H), Ulster 21–42 (A), Munster 20–22 (A), Lions 26–42 (A), Edinburgh 15–24 (H), Stormers 21–29 (A), Cardiff 19–22 (A) and 17–24 (H), Ospreys 13–19 (A), Benetton 21–74 (A).
Three wins all season, three draws, eleven losses and a −131 points difference. The 0–49 thrashing at Scotstoun and the 74–21 humiliation at Treviso in January are season-defining; the 19–18 escape at Parma in April was probably the high point. Dragons have not won a URC away fixture against Welsh opposition since beating Scarlets in April 2022 — every Welsh derby they have played since (six attempts) has ended in defeat or, in the New Year's Day win at Rodney Parade, at home.
Scarlets XV
Scarlets XV not yet announced. Expect Dwayne Peel to keep Sam Costelow at fly-half partnering Archie Hughes at scrum-half, with Tom Rogers and Ellis Mee on the wings either side of Steff Evans. Watch for academy debuts in the front row — Peel has signalled rotation for the final two rounds with several senior players out of contract. Vaea Fifita and Taine Plumtree should anchor a back row built around captain Josh Macleod, with Sam Lousi and Alex Craig in the engine room.
Dragons XV
Dragons XV not yet announced. Filo Tiatia is expected to start Will Reed or Angus O'Brien at 10 with Rhodri Williams at 9, behind a pack led by captain Aaron Wainwright at openside. Expect George Nott and Joe Davies in the second row, and Rio Dyer and Jordan Williams in the back three. Several end-of-contract regulars — including Wainwright, who departs at season's end — will be playing for their final Dragons paychecks and pride.
Key Matchups
Three close calls and three Scarlets edges — a clean sweep would be dishonest in a derby this scrappy. The halfback battle is decisive: Costelow's territorial kicking is the best in either side and Hughes outperforms Rhodri Williams from the base, particularly under pressure. The lineout edge matters too — Sam Lousi has been Scarlets' most consistent forward all season, and Dragons have leaked maul tries throughout this campaign. Where it tightens is the back row, where Aaron Wainwright will be playing the game of his life: a final Rodney Parade-paycheck performance and the kind of carry-tackle output that single-handedly dragged Dragons to the 28–5 win at Rodney Parade in January.
Match Forecast
The scorecard reads +9 from a Scarlets perspective — clear favourite tier, driven by the halfback edge (Costelow vs Reed/O'Brien is a chasm), the long-run H2H at this venue (Scarlets won the last four in Llanelli by an average of 19), and a slim squad-depth advantage. Neither side has any form to lean on — both are 1W-4L in their last five URC outings — and the standings are level on 25 points, which makes this a pure pride and points-difference fixture. The Dragons 28–5 win at Rodney Parade in January was the upset that flipped this season's derby script, but Parc y Scarlets has historically reversed it.
What could go wrong: Dragons' season has been built on staying competitive — every URC loss bar the Bulls and Glasgow blowouts has been within 16 points — and Aaron Wainwright playing his final Dragons paycheck game is exactly the kind of narrative that produces 80-minute backrow shifts. Scarlets have lost three of their last four home URC games by single-digit margins (Bulls 21–23, Cardiff 24–28, Munster 21–34), so a tight finish is the base case. Expect a scrappy, kick-heavy contest that Scarlets edge through Costelow's boot and a fourth-quarter try.
Scarlets to edge a scrappy Welsh derby — Costelow controls the boot, Dragons keep it close but fade in the final quarter.