Both teams sit in the URC's bottom two — Zebre dead last on 12 points with just 2 wins from 13, and Dragons 15th on 20 points. The Challenge Cup has been both sides' lifeline — their R16 upsets over Section Paloise and Stade Francais respectively were their best results of the campaign.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | +171 | 50 | |
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | +120 | 46 | |
| 3 | 13 | 8 | 5 | +97 | 42 | |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 5 | +45 | 41 | |
| 5 | 13 | 8 | 5 | −3 | 40 | |
| 6 | 13 | 8 | 5 | −22 | 39 | |
| 7 | 13 | 7 | 5 | +20 | 38 | |
| 8 | 13 | 7 | 6 | +54 | 35 | |
| 9 | 13 | 6 | 7 | +3 | 35 | |
| 10 | 13 | 5 | 6 | −25 | 29 | |
| 11 | 13 | 5 | 7 | −32 | 29 | |
| 12 | 13 | 5 | 6 | −53 | 28 | |
| 13 | 13 | 4 | 9 | −52 | 23 | |
| 14 | 13 | 4 | 8 | −69 | 21 | |
| 15 | 13 | 2 | 8 | −67 | 20 | |
| 16 | 13 | 2 | 11 | −187 | 12 |
Zebre are a completely different animal in the Challenge Cup. Four wins from five — headlined by a stunning 31–15 dismantling of Section Paloise, who sit 2nd in the Top 14. That R16 result was arguably the upset of the round. The sole blip was a 31–7 drubbing at Montpellier.
The Dragons pulled off the result of the Challenge Cup R16 — beating Stade Francais Paris 36–31 away. That was a Top 14 side sitting 3rd in France, and the Dragons went to Paris and won. The 74–21 hammering at Benetton was humbling, but that Stade Francais scalp gives them genuine knockout pedigree.
8 – 1 – 2
Zebre wins · Draws · Dragons wins (11 meetings in Italy)
Zebre have been dominant at home in this fixture — 8 wins, 1 draw, and just 2 defeats in Parma across 13 years. Overall across all venues, the record is tighter (Zebre 8, Draws 1, Dragons 10 from 21), but in Parma, this is Zebre's fixture to lose.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | URC | Zebre 31–21 Dragons |
| Jan 2024 | Challenge Cup | Zebre 20–17 Dragons |
| Oct 2022 | URC | Dragons 47–7 Zebre |
| Apr 2022 | URC | Zebre 23–18 Dragons |
| Feb 2021 | Pro14 | Zebre 26–15 Dragons |
| Oct 2019 | Pro14 | Zebre 28–52 Dragons |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Zebre 28 – Dragons 19 in the last six meetings at this venue. Zebre have won four of the last five home H2H fixtures.
Challenge Cup: W4 L1. URC: W2 L9. Zebre haven't won a URC game since November. But at the Lanfranchi in European competition, they've been clinical.
The Challenge Cup tells a completely different story to the URC. Five wins from five in Europe versus just two wins from eleven in the URC. But at the Lanfranchi in European competition, they've been clinical.
Challenge Cup: W3 L2 (beat Stade Francais 36–31 away, beat USAP 22–19, beat Newcastle 35–12). URC: W2 D3 L9.
The 36–31 win at Stade Francais was season-defining. But their away record across all competitions is woeful. The Stade Francais result was the exception, not the rule.
Lineups not yet announced. Zebre's likely XV will feature Italian internationals Alessandro Fusco at scrumhalf and Giovanni Licata in the backrow.
Lineups not yet announced. The Dragons will be riding high after Paris. Expect Aaron Wainwright, Rio Dyer, Elliot Dee, and Ben Carter to feature heavily.
The Dragons' backrow of Wainwright, Thomas Young, and Keddie carries more international pedigree. Rio Dyer's pace is a genuine X-factor. But Zebre's home advantage at the Lanfranchi and their superior H2H record in Parma keep them competitive.
This is about as close to a coin-flip as knockout rugby gets. The scorecard yields a net +3 from Zebre's perspective — driven by their home advantage and an 8-1-2 record in Parma. Both teams are dreadful in the URC but have found something in the Challenge Cup.
The Dragons' backrow gives them a slight edge in individual quality, and Rio Dyer's pace can punish defensive errors. But Zebre at home in Europe have been a different animal — 4 wins from 4 at the Lanfranchi this season. The H2H record in Parma is decisively in Zebre's favour.
A genuine toss-up between the URC's bottom two — Zebre's home record and European form should edge a tight, scrappy knockout tie.