NSW Waratahs
Western Force
Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Championship Standings
An Australian derby with the season on the line — Waratahs 8th on 19 points, Force 10th on 14 points, both staring down the back end of the playoff race. The Waratahs are 5 points clear of their visitors but the form lines have crossed: the Force have won 2 of their last 3 (including a 31–26 stunner over the Crusaders in Perth), while the Waratahs are coming off a 35–20 hiding in Christchurch.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | 9 | 7 | 2 | +217 | 35 |
| 2 | Chiefs | 10 | 8 | 2 | +129 | 35 |
| 3 | Blues | 10 | 7 | 3 | +82 | 33 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 5 | +54 | 26 |
| 5 | Brumbies | 10 | 5 | 5 | +16 | 25 |
| 6 | Queensland Reds | 9 | 5 | 4 | −39 | 22 |
| 7 | Highlanders | 10 | 4 | 6 | −45 | 20 |
| 8 | NSW Waratahs | 9 | 4 | 5 | −43 | 19 |
| 9 | Fijian Drua | 10 | 4 | 6 | −113 | 16 |
| 10 | Western Force | 9 | 3 | 6 | −26 | 14 |
| 11 | Moana Pasifika | 10 | 1 | 9 | −232 | 4 |
NSW Waratahs
W2, L3Two wins, three losses, and a points differential of −41 across the last five — a snapshot that flatters them. Both wins came at home (Brumbies by 2, Moana by 15); all three losses came on the road by an average of 19 points, including a 42–14 thrashing in Hamilton and last weekend's 35–20 defeat at Apollo Projects. The pattern is brutally consistent: the Waratahs are a respectable home side and a poor travelling one, and now they get the latter-day Force coming to Sydney off a confidence-boosting upset of the Crusaders.
Western Force
W2, L3Quietly the Force have become the tougher Australian out — the 31–26 win over the Crusaders in Perth last round was their best result of the season and ended a Crusaders 18-of-20 home-or-away domination of Aussie sides. Three of their five recent losses have been by single digits, including a 24–22 heartbreaker in Fiji and 31–23 at the Hurricanes. The xG is a much better team than the table suggests; Simon Cron's side has belief and a tight forward platform, and they nearly drew with the Hurricanes on the road.
Head-to-Head Record
16 – 0 – 11
Waratahs wins · Draws · Western Force wins (last 27 meetings)
Historically Waratahs-dominated, but the Force have flipped the recent script. The last meeting was R5 of this season — a 26–33 Waratahs win in Perth — but the prior fixture in 2025 was a stunning 24–3 Force win at Allianz Stadium. The Force have actually won 3 of the last 6 meetings, including 27–7 in Perth in May 2024.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | Super Rugby AUS | Western Force 26–33 Waratahs |
| Sep 2025 | Super Rugby AUS | Waratahs 3–24 Western Force |
| May 2025 | Super Rugby | Western Force 17–22 Waratahs |
| Mar 2025 | Super Rugby | Waratahs 34–10 Western Force |
| May 2024 | Super Rugby | Western Force 27–7 Waratahs |
| Apr 2023 | Super Rugby | Waratahs 36–16 Western Force |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Waratahs 24 – Western Force 19 across the last 6 meetings — a much tighter rivalry than the all-time numbers suggest. Three of the last six have been decided by 7 points or fewer.
Extended Form
NSW Waratahs4W, 5L in Super Rugby Pacific 2026
Wins: Reds (36–12 H), Drua (36–13 H), Brumbies (30–28 A), Moana (29–14 H). Losses: Hurricanes (19–59 A), Reds (17–26 A), Blues (20–35 H), Chiefs (14–42 A), Crusaders (20–35 A), Highlanders (20–24 A in earlier round).
Every single Waratahs win in 2026 has come at Allianz — 4-from-4 at home is the foundation of their season. The road record is 0–5 with an average defeat of 19 points. This is the textbook 'must protect home turf' fixture: lose this and the playoff math gets ugly.
Western Force3W, 6L in Super Rugby Pacific 2026
Wins: Moana (35–19 A), Reds (42–19 A), Crusaders (31–26 H). Losses: Brumbies (24–56 H), Blues (32–42 H), Highlanders (31–39 A), Hurricanes (23–31 A), Chiefs (14–24 H), Drua (22–24 A).
Bizarre split: 2 of 3 Force wins have come on the road, and most of their losses have been at HBF Park. Last week's 31–26 win over the Crusaders is the result that changed how this side is perceived — they were physical, organised at the breakdown, and Donaldson's goalkicking finally clicked. They are not a free-scoring side (125 points across 5 games) but they don't leak many either.
NSW Waratahs XV
Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'i returns at outside centre — a major boost to a backline that has lacked a genuine line-breaker on the road. Jake Gordon and Lawson Creighton form the halfback pair with Tane Edmed unavailable; Andrew Kellaway shifts to fullback and Max Jorgensen retains the wing. Up front Matt Philip captains alongside Angus Blyth in the second row, with Charlie Gamble, Pete Samu and Angus Scott-Young in the back row — a heavy carrying unit.
Western Force XV
Jeremy Williams captains from lock with Darcy Swain alongside; the Tizzano-de Crespigny-Ekuasi back row is one of the better Australian breakdown units. Ben Donaldson at 10 is in the form of his career after kicking the Force home against the Crusaders. The back three of Pietsch, Lomax and Grealy is dangerous and Kurtley Beale is on the bench for finishing minutes. Brandon Paenga-Amosa starts at hooker.
Key Matchups
Sua'ali'i's return is the biggest single lever in this game — a genuine line-breaker against a Force midfield that, while willing, has been targeted by good 13s all season. The Tizzano-led breakdown work is the Force's best weapon and the Waratahs have been turnover-prone on the road; expect Tizzano to live in the home rucks. Donaldson v Creighton at flyhalf is the matchup the Force should win on form: Creighton is in for the absent Edmed and lacks the same goalkicking reliability, while Donaldson kicked the Force to victory over the Crusaders. If the Waratahs can use their forward carries (Samu and Gamble are big-minute ball-runners) to set Sua'ali'i, they have the edge. If the game becomes a kick-tennis territory contest, the Force have shown they can win those.
Match Forecast
Net +8 puts this in 'clear favourite' territory but not blowout — and that feels right. The Waratahs are 4-from-4 at Allianz and Sua'ali'i's return at outside centre is a genuine matchup-winner against a Force midfield that lacks defensive shape against carriers of his profile. Add the home flyhalf concern (Creighton in for Edmed) and there's a path to a tighter game than the table suggests, but the home pack's carrying threat through Samu, Gamble and Sua'ali'i should produce the kind of front-foot ball Donaldson can't replicate at the other end.
The case for the Force is real and shouldn't be dismissed — they beat the Crusaders last week, they won 24–3 at this exact venue 12 months ago, and Tizzano at the breakdown will create turnovers if the Waratahs are loose. But the pattern of this season is that home sides win the must-win Aussie derbies, the Waratahs have been comfortable at Allianz, and the Force's 0-from-2 starts in away tour-style fixtures are a worry. Expect a tense first half, the Waratahs to pull clear in the third quarter via Sua'ali'i and Jorgensen, and a ten-to-fifteen-point margin.
Waratahs by 12 — Sua'ali'i's return tilts a tight Aussie derby in the home side's favour.