Queensland Reds
Brumbies
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Championship Standings
An Australian derby with playoff implications written all over it. The Brumbies sit 5th on 25 points, the Reds 6th on 22 — separated by a single win, with the Crusaders (4th, 26 pts) just out of reach above and the Highlanders (7th, 20 pts) breathing down the Reds' neck. Loser likely slides out of the top six.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | 9 | 7 | 2 | +217 | 35 |
| 2 | Chiefs | 10 | 8 | 2 | +129 | 35 |
| 3 | Blues | 10 | 7 | 3 | +82 | 33 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 5 | +54 | 26 |
| 5 | Brumbies | 10 | 5 | 5 | +16 | 25 |
| 6 | Queensland Reds | 9 | 5 | 4 | −39 | 22 |
| 7 | Highlanders | 10 | 4 | 6 | −45 | 20 |
| 8 | NSW Waratahs | 9 | 4 | 5 | −43 | 19 |
| 9 | Fijian Drua | 10 | 4 | 6 | −113 | 16 |
| 10 | Western Force | 9 | 3 | 6 | −26 | 14 |
| 11 | Moana Pasifika | 10 | 1 | 9 | −232 | 4 |
Queensland Reds
W5, L4Brad Thorn's Reds are the definition of unpredictable. They opened with a 36–12 hammering in Sydney, then ripped off four straight — including a 34–31 win over the Brumbies in Canberra and a 21–6 trip to Suva. Then the wheels came off: a 38-point hiding from the Hurricanes in Wellington, a humiliating 42–19 home loss to a Force side that beat nobody else, and a 36–33 nail-biter loss in Auckland. The 31–26 over the Crusaders in between was season-saving — but the −47 differential tells you defence is the issue. They've conceded 30+ in five of nine.
Brumbies
W5, L5From 4-1 after Round 5 to 5-5 and freefalling. The Brumbies' last five reads: lost to the Drua in Suva (−15), beat the Chiefs at home, lost to the Waratahs at GIO (−2), scraped past the Highlanders in Dunedin (14–10), then lost back-to-back at home to the Drua (28–33) and got annihilated 45–12 in Wellington last week. They've now lost 4 of 5 — their pretty +16 differential is built almost entirely on the 56–24 and 50–24 wins from Rounds 1–2. The attack has dried up: 12, 28, 33, 14, 12 in the last five.
Head-to-Head History
9 – 1 – 7
Reds wins · Draws · Brumbies wins (last 17 meetings)
The Reds lead the recent series 9–7–1 over the last 17 meetings, and they've already won the 2026 reverse fixture — a 34–31 thriller in Canberra in Round 3. At Suncorp specifically, the Reds have won 5 of the last 8, including a 36–26 victory in last year's Super Rugby AUS. The Brumbies' last Suncorp win came in Round 14, 2021. Eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer — this rivalry is consistently tight.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | Super Rugby Pacific | Brumbies 31–34 Reds |
| Sep 2025 | Super Rugby AUS | Reds 36–26 Brumbies |
| May 2025 | Super Rugby Pacific | Brumbies 24–14 Reds |
| Apr 2025 | Super Rugby Pacific | Reds 26–39 Brumbies |
| Mar 2024 | Super Rugby Pacific | Reds 19–20 Brumbies |
| Apr 2023 | Super Rugby Pacific | Reds 24–52 Brumbies |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Reds 24 – Brumbies 25 across the last 10 meetings. Tight overall, but the Reds have won the last three at Suncorp by an average margin of 9 points.
Extended Form
Queensland Reds9W, 8L (last 12 months)
2026 SR: L vs Waratahs 12–36, W vs Highlanders 31–14, W at Brumbies 34–31, W vs Waratahs 26–17, W at Drua 21–6, L at Hurricanes 14–52, L vs Force 19–42, W vs Crusaders 31–26, L at Blues 33–36. 2025 highlights: 36–26 over Brumbies, 52–7 over Drua, 35–21 over Blues; lows: 47–19 loss at Waratahs, 52–12 loss to British & Irish Lions.
Brad Thorn's Reds remain capable of beating anyone in the competition on their day — they've taken down the Brumbies, Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders and Drua in the last 12 months — but they're equally capable of capitulating, with five 20+ point losses across the same window. Suncorp has been the saving grace: they're 4-2 at home in 2026 with the wins by an average of nearly 12 points.
Brumbies9W, 9L (last 12 months)
2026 SR: W at Force 56–24, W at Crusaders 50–24, W vs Blues 30–27, L vs Reds 31–34, L at Drua 27–42, W vs Chiefs 33–24, L vs Waratahs 28–30, W at Highlanders 14–10, L vs Drua 28–33, L at Hurricanes 12–45.
The Brumbies' two most recent road trips tell the story — a smash-and-grab 14–10 win at Forsyth Barr was followed by a 33-point pumping at Sky Stadium last weekend. Their road record across 2026 is W3-L2 if you include wins at the Force and Crusaders early in the season, but the recent Hurricanes blowout was their first time conceding 40+ since round 5. At Suncorp specifically they've been beaten in 3 of their last 4 visits.
Queensland Reds XV
Lineups not yet officially announced for Round 11. Expect Brad Thorn to lean on his Wallaby spine: captain Fraser McReight at openside alongside Harry Wilson at No. 8, Matt Faessler at hooker, and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto returning the lineout muscle. Tim Ryan, Hunter Paisami and Jock Campbell anchor a dangerous backline, with Harry McLaughlin-Phillips at fly-half. After last week's 36–33 loss in Auckland the Reds need a response.
Brumbies XV
Brumbies XV likely close to: James Slipper, Lachlan Lonergan, Rhys van Nek; Nick Frost, Lachlan Shaw; Rob Valetini, Rory Scott, Toby Macpherson; Ryan Lonergan (c), Declan Meredith; Corey Toole, David Feliuai, Kadin Pritchard, Andy Muirhead; Tom Wright. Captain Allan Alaalatoa remains absent following his concussion. After conceding 45 in Wellington, McKellar will be desperate for a defensive response from his pack.
Key Matchups
Two areas decide this. First, the backrow battle — McReight and Wilson are the form Wallaby pair in the competition, and against a Brumbies side that just shipped 45 to the Hurricanes, the breakdown is where the Reds can suffocate the visitors. Second, the back three — Tom Wright is arguably the best fullback in the comp and Toole the form Australian winger, but Jock Campbell, Tim Ryan and Filipo Daugunu have outscored them in the last two head-to-heads. The Brumbies will fancy their lineout maul if the front row holds; the Reds will fancy chaos and tempo at Suncorp.
Match Forecast
This is one of the toughest reads of the round. Both sides are wounded — the Brumbies coming off a 45–12 thumping in Wellington, the Reds off a 36–33 last-gasp loss at Eden Park — but the Reds get the home edge, the recent H2H, and the better backrow matchup. The scorecard nets out at +7 (Reds), driven by Suncorp form, McReight/Wilson over a Brumbies pack that just shipped 45, and the fact the Reds have already taken the Brumbies once in 2026 (34–31 in Canberra). Brumbies' lineout-maul advantage is real, but it didn't save them in either of the recent Australian derbies.
The case against: the Brumbies are still the better-balanced roster, McKellar has historically responded to Wellington-style hidings with controlled, kick-heavy performances, and Tom Wright is the kind of player who turns one moment into 14 points. If Slipper and Frost win the territorial battle and Ryan Lonergan controls tempo, the Brumbies' attack — which has averaged 30 ppg this season — can absolutely beat a Reds defence that has shipped 30+ in five of nine. Bank on a tight, error-strewn derby with the home crowd nudging the Reds across.
Reds by a converted try — Suncorp tilts the most evenly matched derby of the round.