Bulls sit 8th on 45 points — right on the playoff cutline with the Lions (4th, 48), Ulster (5th, 47), Munster (6th, 46) and Cardiff (7th, 46) all within three points. A bonus-point win at Loftus is essentially mandatory: anything less and Connacht (9th, 44) leapfrog them. Zebre are nailed to the bottom on 14 points — 2 wins from 15, a points difference of −204, and already eliminated.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | +150 | 55 | |
| 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | +130 | 51 | |
| 3 | 15 | 10 | 5 | +70 | 51 | |
| 4 | 15 | 9 | 5 | +78 | 48 | |
| 5 | 15 | 9 | 6 | +105 | 47 | |
| 6 | 15 | 9 | 6 | +5 | 46 | |
| 7 | 15 | 9 | 6 | −5 | 46 | |
| 8 | 15 | 9 | 6 | +97 | 45 | |
| 9 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +19 | 44 | |
| 10 | 15 | 6 | 7 | −28 | 34 | |
| 11 | 15 | 6 | 8 | −30 | 34 | |
| 12 | 15 | 5 | 10 | −70 | 28 | |
| 13 | 15 | 5 | 8 | −104 | 28 | |
| 14 | 15 | 4 | 10 | −90 | 23 | |
| 15 | 15 | 2 | 10 | −123 | 21 | |
| 16 | 15 | 2 | 13 | −204 | 14 |
Four wins from five and on the kind of run that wins playoff seedings. The 47–7 mauling of the Dragons at Rodney Parade and last weekend's gritty 23–21 escape at Parc y Scarlets bookend a stretch where Jake White's side has averaged 38 points a game. The only blemish was the 25–21 Champions Cup R16 exit at Scotstoun — narrow, away, against the URC's table-toppers. Loftus on a Saturday afternoon against the league's worst attack is exactly the matchup the Bulls want with one round left to lock in playoff positioning.
Four losses in five and — the brutal twist — three of them by a single point or three. Last weekend's 19–18 home defeat to the Dragons (who had won twice all season before that trip to Parma) was the season's nadir: a winless URC home record extended, and the Challenge Cup quarter-final loss to the same Dragons two weeks earlier. Massimo Brunello's side fights but cannot finish, and now they board a flight to Johannesburg with nothing left in the tank.
0 – 0 – 4
Zebre wins · Draws · Bulls wins (last 4 URC meetings)
Bulls have won all four URC meetings by an average margin of 43 points. The most recent two at Loftus produced 78–12 (April 2023) and 63–24 (March 2025) scorelines — 90 and 39-point hammerings. Even on Italian soil it has been one-way: 45–7 in February 2022 and 54–29 in November 2023. Zebre have never come closer than 25 points to this side in URC play.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | URC | Bulls 63–24 Zebre |
| Nov 2023 | URC | Zebre 29–54 Bulls |
| Apr 2023 | URC | Bulls 78–12 Zebre |
| Feb 2022 | URC | Zebre 7–45 Bulls |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Bulls 60 – Zebre 18 across four URC meetings. The two Loftus games averaged 70–18. There is no fixture in the URC with a more lopsided historical baseline.
URC wins this season — Ospreys 53–40, Leinster 39–31, Connacht 28–27 (A), Edinburgh 19–17 (A), Lions 52–17 (A), Sharks 41–12, Cardiff 40–7, Munster 34–31, Dragons 47–7 (A), Scarlets 23–21 (A). Losses — Ulster 28–7 (A), Glasgow 21–12 (A), Stormers 13–8 (A), Lions 33–43, Stormers 19–32, Sharks 21–12 (A).
+97 points difference and tries scored at the highest rate among South African sides. Loftus has been a fortress since January — the Stormers loss in March is the only home defeat in 2026, and the gates between have been emphatic: 41–12 over the Sharks, 40–7 over Cardiff, 34–31 over Munster. The away form has sharpened too: Lions 52–17, Dragons 47–7, Scarlets 23–21. This is a team peaking at exactly the right moment.
URC wins — Lions 22–20 (Oct, H), Edinburgh 31–28 (Sep, H). Defeats include Glasgow 47–10 (A), Leinster 50–26 (A), Stormers 31–13 (H), Cardiff 29–14 (H), Ulster 28–12 (H), Connacht 31–15 (H), Munster 21–7 (A), Scarlets 36–17 (A), Edinburgh 31–30 (A), Dragons 19–18 (H). −204 PD is the worst in the URC by 81 points.
Two wins in fifteen tells the story, but −204 tells it better: a defence that has shipped 327 points in the URC alone. Zebre have not won an away URC fixture in over a year. Throw in 1,350m of altitude, 25,000-plus partisan Loftus crowd, a 12-hour travel leg in tour week, and a Bulls side hunting both a home semi-final and a try bonus inside an hour, and the away record is about to get worse.
Bulls XV not yet announced. Jake White is expected to name a near full-strength side with playoff seeding on the line — Springbok front-row of Steenekamp, Grobbelaar and Wilco Louw, Ruan Nortje at lock, Cameron Hanekom and Elrigh Louw in the back row, with Embrose Papier and Handré Pollard at halfback. Watch for Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie and Sebastian de Klerk in the back three — a unit with the pace to exploit Zebre's defensive line at altitude.
Zebre XV not yet announced. Massimo Brunello faces a horror trip with a thin squad: expect Geronimo Prisciantelli at fly-half, captain Giovanni Pettinelli leading the back row, and the experienced Andrea Zambonin at lock. Resources are stretched after a season that has already required heavy rotation through the Italian squad pool.
There is no positional matchup where Zebre hold an edge — a clean sweep is the honest read. Steenekamp and Wilco Louw against a Zebre front row that has conceded scrum penalties in every URC fixture this season is a guaranteed platform. Pollard's game management at altitude against a 22-year-old Prisciantelli on his first Loftus trip is the kind of mismatch that decides games inside thirty minutes. Even the bench is a chasm: the Bulls can bring on Akker van der Merwe and Jan Serfontein in the 50th minute; Zebre will be rotating depleted reserves.
Every dimension on the scorecard is at +5 from the home perspective — a maximum tilt the model rarely produces. Bulls have won the four URC meetings by an average of 43 points, the two Loftus games averaged 70–18, and they arrive on a 4-from-5 run with a Springbok-laden XV that needs a try bonus to lock in a top-eight seed. Zebre arrive at 1,350m with the URC's worst points difference (−204), a one-from-five form line built on three single-digit losses, and a 22-year-old fly-half against Pollard at altitude.
The only realistic question is the bonus-point clock — Bulls should be at four tries by the 50th minute. Zebre's path to a respectable scoreline involves Garbisi and Prisciantelli minimising errors, Pettinelli leading a defensive backrow shift, and the Bulls easing off in the third quarter once the result is decided. Even then, expect 50-plus from the home side. This is a fixture played for points-difference and seeding, not for any genuine contest.
Bulls four-try bonus by the hour, 50+ on the scoreboard, playoff seeding banked — Zebre's season ends as it has been all year: outclassed and outrun.