URC 2025/26URC 2025/26 · Round 18
Connacht

Connacht

v
Munster

Munster

Saturday 9 May 2026 · 7:45 PM IST
Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Tournament

Championship Standings

An interpro with playoff oxygen on the line. Munster sit 6th on 46 points, level with Cardiff and one ahead of the Bulls — a win here virtually books a quarter-final. Connacht are 9th on 44, the last team outside the top eight, and have to win to drag themselves back into the bracket. There is no version of this game that is a dead rubber.

PosTeamPWLPDPts
1
Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors
15114+15055
2
StormersStormers
15114+13051
3
LeinsterLeinster
15105+7051
4
LionsLions
1595+7848
5
UlsterUlster
1596+10547
6
MunsterMunster
1596+546
7
CardiffCardiff
1596−546
8
BullsBulls
1596+9745
9
ConnachtConnacht
1587+1944
10
OspreysOspreys
1567−2834
11
SharksSharks
1568−3034
12
EdinburghEdinburgh
15510−7028
13
BenettonBenetton
1558−10428
14
ScarletsScarlets
15410−9023
15
DragonsDragons
15210−12321
16
Zebre ParmaZebre Parma
15213−20414
2026 Form

Connacht

W4, L1
WR13: Connacht v Scarlets (H)31–14+14
WR14: Ulster v Connacht (A)19–26+7
WR15: Connacht v Ospreys (H)21–14+7
WR16: Stormers v Connacht (A)24–33+9
LR17: Lions v Connacht (A)33–21−12
PF 132PA 104
+28 PD

Strip out the Lions defeat at Ellis Park last week and Connacht had a quietly outstanding back-half — five straight URC wins including the 33–24 stunner at the Stormers in mid-April. The Lions loss is a reset, not a collapse: it was a bonus-point defeat at altitude on the back end of a brutal SA tour, and they still scored 21. Pete Wilkins gets his side back to a Saturday-night Galway crowd off a bye-equivalent week — exactly the conditions where Connacht have done damage all spring. The 33–24 win in Cape Town remains the standout result of any URC team's away season.

Munster

W3, L2
2W streak
WR13: Munster v Zebre (H)21–7+14
LR14: Sharks v Munster (A)45–0−45
LR15: Bulls v Munster (A)34–31−3
WR16: Benetton v Munster (A)15–45+30
WR17: Munster v Ulster (H)41–14+27
PF 138PA 115
+23 PD

Munster have stitched together back-to-back blowouts at exactly the right moment — 45–15 at Benetton and a 41–14 dismantling of Ulster at Thomond last weekend, finally avenging the 28–3 January humbling. The 41-point reply on Ulster was their most complete 80 minutes of the season: pack dominance, Crowley running the show, and four tries from the back line. The wobbly bit is the road record — flogged 45–0 at the Sharks, beaten 34–31 at Loftus, and now they fly to Galway off a five-day turnaround. Connacht at Dexcom is a different animal to Benetton at Monigo.

History

Head-to-Head at Galway

7 – 0 – 10

Connacht wins · Draws · Munster wins (last 17 meetings at Galway)

ConnachtConnacht (7)
(10) MunsterMunster
7W
10W

Munster have the longer historical edge but Connacht have flipped the recent picture in Galway: they won the last meeting at the Sportsground 22–9 in January 2024, and have taken three of the last six in their own backyard. The October 2025 fixture at Thomond was a 17–15 Munster nail-biter, so this is genuinely close in season-on-season terms. Across all 36 meetings on record it's roughly Munster 22, draws 1, Connacht 13 — but the last decade in Galway is much tighter than the all-time record suggests.

Recent Results

DateCompetitionResult
Oct 2025URCMunster 17–15 Connacht
Mar 2025URCConnacht 24–30 Munster
Sep 2024URCMunster 35–33 Connacht
May 2024URCMunster 47–12 Connacht
Jan 2024URCConnacht 22–9 Munster
Nov 2022URCMunster 24–17 Connacht

Average score in the last 6 meetings: Connacht 18 – Munster 21 at Galway across the last six visits. Three of the last four meetings have been settled by a single score (6, 2, 6 points) — Galway derbies have stopped being blowouts and become coin-flip kicking duels.

Last 12 Months

Extended Form

Connacht8W, 7L (URC)

URC wins: Stormers (33–24, A), Glasgow (15–10, H), Ulster (26–19, A), Scarlets (31–14, H), Ospreys (21–14, H), Zebre (31–15, A), Sharks (44–17, H), Benetton (26–15, H). Losses: Lions (21–33, A), Bulls (27–28, H), Cardiff (8–14, A), Leinster (23–34, H and 17–52, A), Munster (15–17, A), Dragons (28–48, A). Also Challenge Cup: 29–12 over Sharks at home, then exits to Montpellier (33–31 home, 45–22 away).

Connacht's signature 2025/26 result is the 33–24 in Cape Town — nobody else in Europe took the Stormers down at DHL this season. Their home record has been the foundation: only Bulls and Leinster have won at Dexcom in the URC. The Lions defeat last week and the Montpellier Challenge Cup exit a fortnight ago suggest the legs may be heavy, but they're back on home soil for the first time in three weeks.

Munster9W, 6L (URC)

URC wins: Leinster (31–14, A), Connacht (17–15, H), Ospreys (26–10, A), Dragons (22–20, H), Zebre (21–7, H), Scarlets (34–21, A), Benetton (45–15, A), Ulster (41–14, H). Losses: Glasgow (22–31, A), Sharks (0–45, A), Bulls (31–34, A), Leinster (8–13, H), Stormers (21–27, H), Ulster (3–28, A). Also: Champions Cup last-16 exit to Castres (29–31) at home and 31–21 defeat at Exeter.

Munster's last two URC outings (45–15 over Benetton, 41–14 over Ulster) are the most impressive back-to-back of their season — Crowley is on a hot streak and the pack is rolling. But three of their six URC defeats have come on the road in tight margins, and the trip to Galway means a five-day turnaround off the Ulster blowout. Their best rugby still tends to come at Thomond.

Team News
Connacht

Connacht XV

Lineups have not yet been announced. Expect Pete Wilkins to keep faith with the same core that beat the Stormers — Mack Hansen and Bundee Aki the headline acts, with Sean Jansen leading the URC for both carries (178+) and tackles (164+) in the back row. Finlay Bealham anchors the scrum; Cian Prendergast and Josh Murphy round out a back row Munster will recognise from Six Nations camps. Jack Carty likely at 10 for the directional kicking battle in the wet.

Forwards
Backs
Replacements
Munster

Munster XV

Lineups have not yet been announced. Munster will be on a five-day turnaround from the Ulster game so rotation in the front row is expected — Loughman and Archer have been heavy minutes carriers. Tadhg Beirne, RG Snyman and Peter O'Mahony should all start; Jack Crowley keeps the 10 jersey after his showcase performance against Ulster. Calvin Nash and Shane Daly are the go-to finishers; expect Conor Murray to manage the closing minutes from the bench.

Forwards
Backs
Replacements
Tactical

Key Matchups

Scrum
Buckley / Heffernan / Bealham
Close
Loughman / Scannell / Archer
Lineout
Murray / Dillane
Munster
Beirne / Snyman / Wycherley
Backrow
Murphy / Prendergast / Jansen
Close
O'Mahony / Hodnett / Coombes
Halfbacks
Blade / Carty
Munster
Murray / Crowley
Centres
Forde / Aki
Close
Farrell / Goggin
Back Three
Hansen / Bolton / Gilbert
Close
Haley / Nash / Daly

The headline duel is in the back row — Sean Jansen has been the URC's most productive forward all season, but he runs into a Coombes/O'Mahony/Hodnett unit that put Ulster's pack to the sword last week. The lineout is where Munster have a clear edge: Beirne and Snyman against a Connacht jumping option that's been good in spurts but not consistent. At 10 the contest tilts toward Crowley — he was outstanding against Ulster, and Carty has had a quieter spring. Connacht's chance lives at the breakdown and through Hansen/Aki manufacturing one-pass try-line moments. If the rain comes, this turns into the kicking-and-mauling slog Munster prefer.

Prediction Scorecard
Munster edgeConnacht edge →
Home Advantage
+3
Form
-1
H2H Record
0
Squad Strength
-2
Set Piece
-2
Backline Quality
0
Standings Gap
0
Net Score-2
Projection
Munster 56% · MUN 22 – CON 19
Prediction

Match Forecast

Projected ScoreMUN 22 – CON 19
Win ProbabilityMunster 56%
Predicted Margin1–7 pts

This is a coin-flip dressed up as an away game. Munster carry the form (back-to-back 30-point margins), the scoreboard pack, and the Crowley-at-10 X-factor, but they're flying to Galway on a five-day turnaround having spent 80 minutes blowing Ulster off the park. Connacht at Dexcom on a Saturday night is the venue where this season's most surprising result happened — they tipped the Stormers 33–24 — and the recent Galway meetings have all been one-score affairs (Connacht 22–9, Connacht 20–11, Connacht 24–30). The scorecard slightly favours Connacht via venue and travel, but it under-weights the gap in set-piece reliability and the difference in 10s right now.

Connacht's best version wins this — Jansen carrying through the gainline, Hansen finding the corner, Carty controlling territory in the rain. But Munster's last two performances were the most coherent of their season, and the bench depth (Coombes, Snyman, Murray off the pine) is something Connacht just can't match in a tight final ten. Expect a 6–6 type half-time, a Crowley penalty kicked late, and a Munster bonus point that ends Connacht's mathematical case for the playoffs.

Munster to win a Galway nail-biter — Crowley's form and the Munster bench tip a one-score derby their way.