URC 2026/27URC 2026/27 · Round 3
Ulster

Ulster

v
Munster

Munster

Saturday 10 October 2026 · 5:30 PM BST
Affidea Stadium, Belfast
Tournament

Championship Standings

Shared SofaScore total URC 2026/27 standings after 2 games per side: Ulster 11th on 5, Munster 9th on 6. The table repeats the form results, so its dimension stays zero.

PosTeamPWLPDPts
United Rugby Championship 26/27
1
SharksSharks
220+2310
2
Cardiff RugbyCardiff Rugby
220+199
3
LionsLions
220+179
4
EdinburghEdinburgh
220+99
5
Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors
210+68
6
DragonsDragons
210+127
7
BullsBulls
211+306
8
StormersStormers
211+106
9
MunsterMunster
211-26
10
ConnachtConnacht
211-115
11
UlsterUlster
201-55
12
BenettonBenetton
201-33
13
LeinsterLeinster
202-73
14
ScarletsScarlets
202-182
15
OspreysOspreys
202-331
16
Zebre ParmaZebre Parma
202-471
2026 Form

Ulster

W0, D2, L3
D2026-10-03: Glasgow Warriors v Ulster (A)33–330
L2026-09-25: Ulster v Edinburgh (H)29–34-5
L2026-05-15: Ulster v Glasgow Warriors (H)22–26-4
D2026-05-08: Ulster v Stormers (H)38–380
L2026-04-25: Munster v Ulster (A)41–14-27
PF 136PA 172
-36 PD

Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-25–2026-10-03; 136 points for and 172 against. Ulster have no win in five, although their 33–33 draw at Glasgow showed attacking recovery after the 34–29 loss to Edinburgh. Their opening 62 points are productive; conceding 67 keeps the defence a concern. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.

Munster

W2, D0, L3
W2026-10-03: Munster v Bulls (H)26–22+4
L2026-09-26: Munster v Glasgow Warriors (H)20–26-6
L2026-05-30: Bulls v Munster (A)45–14-31
W2026-05-16: Munster v Lions (H)24–17+7
L2026-05-09: Connacht v Munster (A)26–7-19
PF 91PA 136
-45 PD

Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-09–2026-10-03; 91 points for and 136 against. Munster beat Bulls 26–22 after losing 26–20 to Glasgow. Both current games were at home, so their recent away losses at Bulls and Connacht still matter for this trip. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.

History

Head-to-head: verified recent sample

2 – 0 – 4

Ulster wins · Draws · Munster wins; 6 same-competition meetings, all venues, 2023-11-10–2026-04-25

UlsterUlster (2)
(4) MunsterMunster
2W
4W

Munster have won four of the retrieved six, but the latest Belfast meeting was Ulster’s 28–3 win. Munster’s 41–14 April victory came in Limerick; the most recent score should not erase that venue split. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.

Recent Results

DateCompetitionResult
2026-04-25United Rugby ChampionshipMunster 41–14 Ulster
2026-01-02United Rugby ChampionshipUlster 28–3 Munster
2025-05-09United Rugby ChampionshipMunster 38–20 Ulster
2024-12-20United Rugby ChampionshipUlster 19–22 Munster
2024-06-01United Rugby ChampionshipMunster 29–24 Ulster
2023-11-10United Rugby ChampionshipUlster 21–14 Munster

Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean: Ulster 21.0 – Munster 24.5; fixed team orientation regardless of venue.

Last 12 Months

Extended Form

UlsterW8, D2, L9

Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (19 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-03 Glasgow Warriors 33–33 Ulster; 2026-09-25 Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh; 2026-05-15 Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08 Ulster 38–38 Stormers; 2026-04-25 Munster 41–14 Ulster; 2026-04-17 Ulster 21–29 Leinster; 2026-03-28 Zebre Parma 12–28 Ulster; 2026-03-20 Ulster 19–26 Connacht; 2026-03-13 Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster; 2026-02-28 Ospreys 21–10 Ulster; 2026-01-31 Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-01-24 Scarlets 27–22 Ulster; 2026-01-02 Ulster 28–3 Munster; 2025-12-27 Connacht 24–29 Ulster; 2025-12-19 Leinster 24–20 Ulster; 2025-11-28 Ulster 47–13 Benetton; 2025-10-25 Lions 49–31 Ulster; 2025-10-18 Sharks 26–34 Ulster; 2025-10-11 Ulster 28–7 Bulls

The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Ulster have no win in five, although their 33–33 draw at Glasgow showed attacking recovery after the 34–29 loss to Edinburgh. Their opening 62 points are productive; conceding 67 keeps the defence a concern. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.

MunsterW10, D0, L9

Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (19 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-03 Munster 26–22 Bulls; 2026-09-26 Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-30 Bulls 45–14 Munster; 2026-05-16 Munster 24–17 Lions; 2026-05-09 Connacht 26–7 Munster; 2026-04-25 Munster 41–14 Ulster; 2026-04-18 Benetton 15–45 Munster; 2026-03-28 Bulls 34–31 Munster; 2026-03-21 Sharks 45–0 Munster; 2026-02-28 Munster 21–7 Zebre Parma; 2026-01-30 Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster; 2026-01-23 Munster 22–20 Dragons; 2026-01-02 Ulster 28–3 Munster; 2025-12-27 Munster 8–13 Leinster; 2025-12-20 Ospreys 10–26 Munster; 2025-11-29 Munster 21–27 Stormers; 2025-10-25 Munster 17–15 Connacht; 2025-10-18 Leinster 14–31 Munster; 2025-10-10 Munster 20–19 Edinburgh

The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Munster beat Bulls 26–22 after losing 26–20 to Glasgow. Both current games were at home, so their recent away losses at Bulls and Connacht still matter for this trip. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.

Team News
Ulster

Ulster XV

Stewart captains, with Timoney and Augustus in the back row. Doak partners Murphy; O’Toole, McCann and Flannery provide replacement options. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.

Forwards
1Eric O’Sullivan
2Tom Stewart(c)
3Keynan Knox
4Ben Donnell
5Eli Snyman
6Cormac Izuchukwu
7Nick Timoney
8Juarno Augustus
Backs
9Nathan Doak
10Jack Murphy
11Jacob Stockdale
12Stuart McCloskey
13Jamie Benson
14Robert Baloucoune
15Ethan McIlroy
Replacements
16Henry Walker
17Tom O’Toole
18Tom McAllister
19James McNabney
20David McCann
21Matthew Devine
22Jake Flannery
23Chay Mullins
Munster

Munster XV

Beirne returns as captain in a side with nine changes. Casey and Hanrahan start; Ahern, Gleeson and Hodnett reinforce the pack, with O’Donovan and O’Shea the reserve halves. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.

Forwards
1Jeremy Loughman
2Marnus van der Merwe
3Kieran Brookes
4Evan O’Connell
5Tadhg Beirne(c)
6Jack O’Donoghue
7Alex Kendellen
8Gavin Coombes
Backs
9Craig Casey
10JJ Hanrahan
11Seán O’Brien
12Dan Kelly
13Alex Nankivell
14Shane Daly
15Ben O’Connor
Replacements
16Diarmuid Barron
17Josh Wycherley
18Jack Aungier
19Tom Ahern
20Brian Gleeson
21Ben O’Donovan
22Charlie O’Shea
23John Hodnett
Tactical

Key Matchups

Front row
Eric O’Sullivan / Tom Stewart / Keynan Knox
Close
Jeremy Loughman / Marnus van der Merwe / Kieran Brookes
Locks
Ben Donnell / Eli Snyman
Munster
Evan O’Connell / Tadhg Beirne
Back row
Cormac Izuchukwu / Nick Timoney / Juarno Augustus
Close
Jack O’Donoghue / Alex Kendellen / Gavin Coombes
Halfbacks
Nathan Doak / Jack Murphy
Munster
Craig Casey / JJ Hanrahan
Centres
Stuart McCloskey / Jamie Benson
Close
Dan Kelly / Alex Nankivell
Back three
Jacob Stockdale / Robert Baloucoune / Ethan McIlroy
Ulster
Seán O’Brien / Shane Daly / Ben O’Connor

Ulster need Doak to turn McCloskey’s carrying into space for Stockdale and Baloucoune. Munster’s Beirne-led forwards should challenge that platform, while their reserve halfbacks face a harder closing assignment than Casey and Hanrahan. Starting-unit edges are qualified selection judgments; they are not retrieved scrum, lineout or player-performance measurements. Beirne returns to lead Munster, with Ahern, Gleeson and Hodnett available later. Ulster have Timoney and Augustus starting plus McCann in reserve; Munster get only a small depth lean, limited by young replacement halfbacks O’Donovan and O’Shea.

Prediction Scorecard
← Munster edgeUlster edge →
Home advantage
+2
Form
-1
H2H record
-1
Squad strength
-1
Set piece
0
Backline quality
0
Standings gap
0
Net Score-1
Projection
Ulster 63% · ULS 28 – MUN 26
Prediction

Match Forecast

Projected ScoreULS 28 – MUN 26
Win ProbabilityUlster 63%
Predicted Margin1–7 pts

Ulster by 2 is the rounded house-model lean. Ulster’s 33–33 performance at Glasgow and 28–3 win in the last Belfast meeting make a very narrow home lean defensible. The seven scores total -1, giving a 63% displayed home probability. The non-venue score is -3; the legacy home intercept materially drives this choice. The supporting case is limited and does not establish a clear independent home edge.

Munster have won four of six in the rivalry, just beat Bulls and restore Beirne. The scorecard outside the venue favours them; the home call relies heavily on the legacy intercept. The scoring projection uses a 53.5-point mean from the two dated five-match samples, rounded to 54 for an integer 2-point difference. The 1–7 band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.

Ulster by 2 — a narrow case that depends materially on the home prior.

Facts & Stats
136–172

Ulster points for–against across the five listed form games.

91–136

Munster points for–against across the five listed form games.

2–0–4

Home-side wins, draws, away-side wins in the 6-meeting scoped sample.

-1

Seven-dimension score from the home perspective before the legacy intercept.