URC 2026/27 · Round 1
Ulster
Edinburgh
Affidea Stadium, Belfast
Championship Standings
The 2026/27 league opens this weekend. No current-season table advantage is awarded; the empty rows avoid presenting last season’s standings as current. Previous league results are assessed separately under form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
Ulster
W1, D1, L3United Rugby Championship only: 5 completed matches, 2026-03-28 to 2026-05-15; 123 points for and 146 against. Ulster’s only win in the five-game league window came at Zebre. The 38–38 draw with the Stormers was competitive, but conceding 41 at Munster underlines why this cannot be sold as a form-led home certainty.
Edinburgh
W3, D0, L2United Rugby Championship only: 5 completed matches, 2026-03-28 to 2026-05-15; 107 points for and 132 against. Edinburgh’s three wins were followed by a 26–5 home defeat to Connacht. The one-point win over Zebre also warns against reading the positive record as sustained control.
Head-to-head: retrieved recent sample
3 – 0 – 2
Ulster wins · Draws · Edinburgh wins; 5 United Rugby Championship meetings, all venues, 2022-04-30–2026-03-13
Ulster (3)Ulster won 40–19 in Edinburgh in March, reversing a 47–17 defeat there the previous season. The sample contains only two Belfast games and they split one each. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | United Rugby Championship | Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster |
| 2025-05-16 | United Rugby Championship | Edinburgh 47–17 Ulster |
| 2023-12-02 | United Rugby Championship | Ulster 24–27 Edinburgh |
| 2023-04-21 | United Rugby Championship | Ulster 28–14 Edinburgh |
| 2022-04-30 | United Rugby Championship | Edinburgh 10–16 Ulster |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean, rounded: Ulster 25.0 – Edinburgh 23.4. Team orientation is fixed regardless of venue.
Extended Form
UlsterW9, D1, L8
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (18 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-05-15 Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08 Ulster 38–38 Stormers; 2026-04-25 Munster 41–14 Ulster; 2026-04-17 Ulster 21–29 Leinster; 2026-03-28 Zebre Parma 12–28 Ulster; 2026-03-20 Ulster 19–26 Connacht; 2026-03-13 Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster; 2026-02-28 Ospreys 21–10 Ulster; 2026-01-31 Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-01-24 Scarlets 27–22 Ulster; 2026-01-02 Ulster 28–3 Munster; 2025-12-27 Connacht 24–29 Ulster; 2025-12-19 Leinster 24–20 Ulster; 2025-11-28 Ulster 47–13 Benetton; 2025-10-25 Lions 49–31 Ulster; 2025-10-18 Sharks 26–34 Ulster; 2025-10-11 Ulster 28–7 Bulls; 2025-09-26 Ulster 42–21 Dragons
Only United Rugby Championship results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded. Ulster’s only win in the five-game league window came at Zebre. The 38–38 draw with the Stormers was competitive, but conceding 41 at Munster underlines why this cannot be sold as a form-led home certainty.
EdinburghW7, D0, L11
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (18 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-05-15 Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht; 2026-05-09 Dragons 15–24 Edinburgh; 2026-04-24 Edinburgh 33–28 Sharks; 2026-04-17 Edinburgh 31–30 Zebre Parma; 2026-03-28 Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh; 2026-03-21 Lions 54–17 Edinburgh; 2026-03-13 Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster; 2026-02-27 Edinburgh 24–19 Scarlets; 2026-01-31 Leinster 28–20 Edinburgh; 2026-01-23 Edinburgh 17–19 Bulls; 2026-01-03 Benetton 14–15 Edinburgh; 2025-12-27 Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-12-20 Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh; 2025-11-29 Edinburgh 19–17 Ospreys; 2025-10-25 Cardiff Rugby 20–19 Edinburgh; 2025-10-17 Edinburgh 43–0 Benetton; 2025-10-10 Munster 20–19 Edinburgh; 2025-09-27 Zebre Parma 31–28 Edinburgh
Only United Rugby Championship results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded. Edinburgh’s three wins were followed by a 26–5 home defeat to Connacht. The one-point win over Zebre also warns against reading the positive record as sustained control.
Ulster XV
Confirmed 24 September. Lowry captains at fullback with Baloucoune on the wing; Jack Murphy starts at ten. McCann, Moloney and McNabney form the back row.
Edinburgh XV
Confirmed 24 September. Hepburn, Grayson, Higgins and Gwynn are starting debutants; Currie and Bradbury co-captain. The club lists several injuries, including Paterson, Graham and Ashman.
Key Matchups
Grayson and Patterson have to establish control quickly behind Edinburgh’s reshaped pack. Ulster should test the cohesion of the new outside backs with width after a carry through midfield. Edinburgh’s route is to slow that delivery and let Bradbury carry them out of pressure.
Match Forecast
Ulster are the pick through venue and a little more continuity in the selected backline. Lowry and Baloucoune give them familiar outlets against an Edinburgh side bedding in four starting debutants. Last season’s closing form is a reason for restraint, not the reason to back them.
Edinburgh can make this uncomfortable if Grayson manages the kicking duel and Bradbury wins repeat carries. Ulster’s recent league defence has conceded plenty. Expect a competitive opener rather than a replay of the 40–19 meeting. The margin band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Ulster by 6 — the selected sides and verified results set the case.
Ulster points for–against in the 5-match United Rugby Championship form window.
Edinburgh points for–against in the 5-match United Rugby Championship form window.
Ulster wins–draws–Edinburgh wins in the explicitly scoped H2H sample.
Seven-dimension house score from the home perspective; positive favours the home team before the model intercept.