URC 2026/27 · Round 1
Scarlets
Cardiff Rugby
Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Championship Standings
The 2026/27 league opens this weekend. No current-season table advantage is awarded; the empty rows avoid presenting last season’s standings as current. Previous league results are assessed separately under form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
Scarlets
W0, D1, L4United Rugby Championship only: 5 completed matches, 2026-03-27 to 2026-05-16; 119 points for and 149 against. Scarlets finished without a win in this five-game league window, but the Bulls and Cardiff defeats were by two and four. The 35–35 draw with Dragons highlights both their attacking capacity and defensive vulnerability.
Cardiff Rugby
W3, D0, L2United Rugby Championship only: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-18 to 2026-05-30; 112 points for and 145 against. Cardiff beat Ospreys, Scarlets and Stormers before their quarter-final exit in Cape Town. The heavy Glasgow and Stormers away losses stop that record becoming a blanket endorsement on the road.
Head-to-head: retrieved recent sample
4 – 0 – 2
Scarlets wins · Draws · Cardiff Rugby wins; 6 United Rugby Championship meetings, all venues, 2023-11-04–2026-04-18
Scarlets (4)The last five meetings in this sample were won by the away team. Cardiff won 28–24 here in April, after Scarlets had won 21–17 in Cardiff in December. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | United Rugby Championship | Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Rugby |
| 2025-12-19 | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Rugby 17–21 Scarlets |
| 2024-10-12 | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Rugby 19–25 Scarlets |
| 2024-09-28 | United Rugby Championship | Scarlets 15–24 Cardiff Rugby |
| 2023-12-02 | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Rugby 23–29 Scarlets |
| 2023-11-04 | United Rugby Championship | Scarlets 31–25 Cardiff Rugby |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean, rounded: Scarlets 24.2 – Cardiff Rugby 22.7. Team orientation is fixed regardless of venue.
Extended Form
ScarletsW4, D2, L12
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (18 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-05-16 Scarlets 35–35 Dragons; 2026-05-09 Ospreys 27–20 Scarlets; 2026-04-25 Scarlets 21–23 Bulls; 2026-04-18 Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-03-27 Leinster 36–19 Scarlets; 2026-03-20 Scarlets 36–17 Zebre Parma; 2026-03-13 Connacht 31–14 Scarlets; 2026-02-27 Edinburgh 24–19 Scarlets; 2026-01-30 Benetton 20–20 Scarlets; 2026-01-24 Scarlets 27–22 Ulster; 2026-01-01 Dragons 28–5 Scarlets; 2025-12-26 Scarlets 19–26 Ospreys; 2025-12-19 Cardiff Rugby 17–21 Scarlets; 2025-11-29 Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-25 Sharks 29–19 Scarlets; 2025-10-18 Lions 29–18 Scarlets; 2025-10-10 Scarlets 0–34 Stormers; 2025-09-27 Scarlets 21–34 Munster
Only United Rugby Championship results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded. Scarlets finished without a win in this five-game league window, but the Bulls and Cardiff defeats were by two and four. The 35–35 draw with Dragons highlights both their attacking capacity and defensive vulnerability.
Cardiff RugbyW11, D0, L8
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (19 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-05-30 Stormers 44–21 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-05-15 Cardiff Rugby 22–16 Stormers; 2026-05-08 Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-04-24 Cardiff Rugby 24–21 Ospreys; 2026-04-18 Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-03-27 Sharks 21–15 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-03-20 Bulls 40–7 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-02-27 Cardiff Rugby 8–7 Leinster; 2026-01-31 Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-01-24 Cardiff Rugby 17–8 Benetton; 2026-01-01 Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-12-26 Cardiff Rugby 22–19 Dragons; 2025-12-19 Cardiff Rugby 17–21 Scarlets; 2025-11-29 Zebre Parma 14–29 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-10-25 Cardiff Rugby 20–19 Edinburgh; 2025-10-17 Dragons 17–24 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-10-11 Cardiff Rugby 14–8 Connacht; 2025-10-04 Munster 23–20 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-09-27 Cardiff Rugby 33–20 Lions
Only United Rugby Championship results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded. Cardiff beat Ospreys, Scarlets and Stormers before their quarter-final exit in Cape Town. The heavy Glasgow and Stormers away losses stop that record becoming a blanket endorsement on the road.
Scarlets XV
Confirmed 24 September. Anscombe starts beside Blacker and Macleod captains. Cuckson and Will Evans start in the second row, with Osian Williams at eight.
Cardiff Rugby XV
Confirmed 24 September. Belcher captains, Sheedy partners Mulder and Thomas starts at twelve. Grady is on the wing; Botham and Jarrod Evans are among the replacements.
Key Matchups
Anscombe and Sheedy are the obvious territorial contest, but the pressure on the young Scarlets forwards may decide how much time either gets. Cardiff can work through Thomas and Grady if their pack keeps the ball moving. Scarlets need Elias and Macleod to turn pressure into field position before playing wide.
Match Forecast
Scarlets get a very narrow home call from the house model, with little separating the selected backlines. Their losing finish is tempered by the two- and four-point margins against Bulls and Cardiff. This is a derby lean, not a claim that recent form favours them.
Cardiff have the stronger five-game record and won at this ground in April. The away-win streak in this rivalry is a direct warning against overvaluing the venue. If the home pack cannot secure Anscombe enough good ball, Cardiff are well placed to reverse the pick. The margin band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Scarlets by 2 — a narrow call with little room for error.
Scarlets points for–against in the 5-match United Rugby Championship form window.
Cardiff Rugby points for–against in the 5-match United Rugby Championship form window.
Scarlets wins–draws–Cardiff Rugby wins in the explicitly scoped H2H sample.
Seven-dimension house score from the home perspective; positive favours the home team before the model intercept.