URC 2025/26 · Semi-Final
Leinster
Stormers
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Championship Standings
This is the URC playoff semi-final — 2nd seed Leinster (63 pts) hosting 3rd seed Stormers (60 pts), the two highest-finishing sides left in the draw after Glasgow (1st) and the Bulls (4th) meet in the other semi. Just three regular-season points separated these two, and the seeding earns Leinster the home tie at the Aviva. But seeding is the only thing that flatters the hosts here: the Stormers won this exact fixture 35–0 in Cape Town on the opening weekend, and own the head-to-head. Win-or-go-home, with a Grand Final place on the line — the table is now irrelevant.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Glasgow Warriors | 18 | 13 | 5 | +141 | 65 |
| 2 | Leinster | 18 | 12 | 6 | +145 | 63 |
| 3 | Stormers | 18 | 12 | 5 | +160 | 60 |
| 4 |  Bulls | 18 | 12 | 6 | +160 | 59 |
| 5 |  Munster | 18 | 11 | 7 | +20 | 55 |
| 6 |  Cardiff | 18 | 11 | 7 | −19 | 55 |
| 7 |  Lions | 18 | 10 | 7 | +59 | 54 |
| 8 |  Connacht | 18 | 10 | 8 | +47 | 54 |
| 9 |  Ulster | 18 | 9 | 8 | +74 | 52 |
| 10 |  Sharks | 18 | 8 | 9 | +39 | 46 |
| 11 |  Ospreys | 18 | 7 | 9 | −78 | 39 |
| 12 |  Edinburgh | 18 | 7 | 11 | −77 | 38 |
| 13 |  Benetton | 18 | 6 | 10 | −166 | 33 |
| 14 |  Scarlets | 18 | 4 | 12 | −99 | 28 |
| 15 |  Dragons | 18 | 3 | 11 | −131 | 28 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 18 | 2 | 16 | −275 | 15 |
Leinster
W3, L2Last weekend was the salve: a 59–10 demolition of the Lions, nine tries, with James Lowe scoring his 70th to pass Shane Horgan as Leinster's all-time record try-scorer to chants of 'one more year'. That answered the question hanging over the province after the 41–19 Champions Cup final capitulation to Bordeaux two weeks earlier — they responded with venom even after making eight changes. The bigger picture is still mixed: six league losses across the campaign and that Bordeaux beating linger, but back at home in a knockout, Leinster look rediscovered. The Aviva is rocking again.
Stormers
W3, L1, D1The Stormers blew Cardiff away 44–21 at the DHL Stadium to reach the last four for the third time, and at home they have been ferocious — a 48–12 dismantling of table-toppers Glasgow earlier in the run shows the ceiling. The travel is the question. They drew 38–38 at Ulster and lost narrowly at Cardiff on their last European trip, and now face a 12,000km journey to Dublin having lost both Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (the URC's leading scorer, 169 pts) and Seabelo Senatla to injury in the quarter-final. They arrive battle-hardened and full of belief — but light a Springbok playmaker and a strike winger, and far from home.
Head-to-Head Record
1 – 1 – 3
Leinster wins · Draws · Stormers wins (last 5 meetings)
Leinster (1)This is a rare fixture Leinster genuinely do not own. The Stormers have won three of the last five — including a 35–0 humiliation of Leinster in Cape Town on the opening weekend of this very season, the heaviest defeat in Leinster's URC history. Leinster's single win in the run, and their only URC victory over the Stormers ever, was a 36–12 result at the Aviva in January 2025; the other Irish-soil meeting was a 22–22 draw at the RDS in 2023. So the comfort for Leinster is narrow but real: every time these sides have met in Dublin, Leinster have been level or better. Every time they've met in Cape Town, the Stormers have battered them.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | URC | Stormers 35–0 Leinster |
| Jan 2025 | URC | Leinster 36–12 Stormers |
| Apr 2024 | URC | Stormers 42–12 Leinster |
| Mar 2023 | URC | Leinster 22–22 Stormers |
| Apr 2022 | URC | Stormers 20–13 Leinster |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Stormers 28.8 – Leinster 16.6 across the five meetings — a genuinely lopsided record skewed by two Cape Town maulings (35–0 and 42–12). But the venue split is everything: in Dublin it reads Leinster 1 win, 1 draw and not a single defeat; in Cape Town the Stormers are unbeaten and average 38 points a game.
Extended Form
Leinster13W, 6L (URC)
URC wins over Sharks, Munster (twice), Ulster (twice), Connacht (twice), Dragons, Zebre, Scarlets, Edinburgh, Lions (31–7 and 59–10 QF), Ospreys (68–14). URC losses: Stormers (0–35), Bulls (31–39), Munster (14–31), Glasgow (17–38), Cardiff (7–8), Benetton (26–29). ECC: run to the final beating Harlequins, Bayonne, Sale, La Rochelle, Edinburgh, Toulon (SF) before losing 41–19 to Bordeaux.
Six URC defeats is the worst regular-season ledger of the Cullen era, and three of them — Stormers, Munster, Glasgow — were double-digit beatings. The Bordeaux final was a seventh chastening loss. But the home knockout record remains a fortress, and the 59–10 QF response says the appetite is back. This is a flawed, beatable Leinster by their own standards — and still comfortably the most talented squad left in the competition.
Stormers12W, 5L, 1D (URC)
URC wins over Leinster (35–0), Ospreys, Scarlets, Zebre, Benetton, Edinburgh, Dragons, Bulls (twice), Glasgow (48–12), Cardiff (QF 44–21). Losses: Sharks (twice), Lions (10–24), Connacht (24–33), Cardiff (16–22 A). Draw: Ulster (38–38 A). ECC: pool exit including a 61–10 loss at Harlequins.
John Dobson's side have the best home record in the URC and a points difference (+160) that bettered everyone, yet the away ledger tells the cautionary tale — beaten at the Sharks, Lions, Connacht and Cardiff, and shipping 61 at Harlequins in Europe. They are a magnificent front-running, high-tempo team on a firm Cape Town pitch; in the cold and wet of a Dublin June, against a rush defence, with a rookie 10, it is a very different examination.
Leinster XV
Leo Cullen made three changes from the side that hammered the Lions 59–10. Rónan Kelleher comes in at hooker as Dan Sheehan is ruled out (knee/shoulder), with Tadhg Furlong (Thomas Clarkson starts at 3) and Tommy O'Brien also missing. Jamison Gibson-Park returns at scrum-half alongside Sam Prendergast, and Josh van der Flier starts at openside for Scott Penny. Caelan Doris captains from number 8. RG Snyman is out for the season; Garry Ringrose provides the finishing power on a strong bench.
Stormers XV
The Stormers were forced into three injury changes from the team that beat Cardiff. The hammer blow is at fly-half: URC top scorer Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (ankle syndesmosis) is out, with 25-year-old Jurie Matthee stepping up at 10 alongside young scrum-half Imad Khan — an inexperienced halfback pairing against Gibson-Park and Prendergast. Wing Seabelo Senatla (concussion) is replaced by Wandisile Simelane, and Connor Evans comes into the second row. Deon Fourie leads from openside; Warrick Gelant anchors at fullback with Damian Willemse and Dan du Plessis (passed fit) in midfield, and Evan Roos carrying from 8. Salmaan Moerat covers from the bench. (Matchday 23 reflects the named injury-enforced selection; final bench order may shift.)
Key Matchups
The match swings on the number 10 channel. Feinberg-Mngomezulu's ankle injury robs the Stormers of the URC's leading scorer (169 pts) and their controlling brain; 25-year-old Jurie Matthee is a fine prospect but a rookie being asked to steer a touring side through a Dublin knockout against Gibson-Park's tempo and Prendergast's territorial kicking. Leinster's experienced half-back axis, restored from the bench, is the single biggest edge on the field. The Stormers' counter is their pack — the scrum and rolling maul are genuine weapons, Evan Roos is a destructive carrier, and if they can slow the game into an arm-wrestle the way they did at 35–0 in Cape Town, the aerial battle between Gelant and Keenan becomes pivotal. But strip away the Cape Town firmness and altitude lungs, and ask a callow 10 to do it cold: that's the gap Leinster will hunt.
Match Forecast
The scorecard lands at +7 — slight-favourite tier — and the logic is venue plus the number 10 channel. Leinster have never lost to the Stormers in Dublin (one win, one draw), and they restore a Test-grade half-back axis in Gibson-Park and Prendergast against a Stormers side that lost the URC's leading scorer, Feinberg-Mngomezulu, to an ankle injury in the quarter-final. Asking 25-year-old Jurie Matthee to control a touring side through a wet Dublin knockout against that pressure is the single biggest mismatch on the field. Add a sellout Aviva, a 12,000km journey, and a Stormers away record that includes a 61–10 thrashing at Harlequins, and the platform favours the hosts.
The caveat is that this is no procession, and the 35–0 in Cape Town is the reason. The Stormers' pack is the real deal — Roos, Fourie and a punishing maul — and if they can drag this into the arm-wrestle they thrive in, slow Leinster's tempo and win the aerial battle through Gelant, they have the dog in them to pull off the upset, particularly against a Leinster outfit that has shown it can be beaten by a heavy forward pack (Bordeaux, Glasgow, the Stormers themselves). But Leinster at home in a knockout, with the better half-backs and the deeper bench, should have the control to win the territory game and close it out. Two-score Leinster, but earned the hard way.
Leinster by 10 — they've never lost to the Stormers in Dublin, and the Stormers' rookie 10 is the crack Leinster will prise open.