URC 2026/27 · Round 2
Glasgow Warriors
Ulster
Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Championship Standings
Verified SofaScore United Rugby Championship standings after one round, retrieved before the 2 October cutoff: Glasgow Warriors 4th on 5, Ulster 11th on 2. The early table is context; its points gap is not scored again after the same results have already influenced form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bulls | 1 | 1 | 0 | +34 | 5 |
| 2 |  Sharks | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 5 |
| 3 |  Stormers | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | 5 |
| 4 | Glasgow Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 5 |
| 5 |  Edinburgh | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| 6 |  Cardiff Rugby | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 4 |
| 7 |  Lions | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Benetton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 |  Dragons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 |  Leinster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | Ulster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 |  Munster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 |  Scarlets | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 |  Ospreys | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 1 |
| 15 |  Connacht | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 0 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | -34 | 0 |
Glasgow Warriors
W4, D0, L1Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-08–2026-09-26, 146 for and 102 against. Glasgow have four wins in five retrieved league results and won 26–20 at Munster. Ulster’s five-result sample has no wins and one draw; the latest 29–34 Edinburgh defeat continues that uneven run.
Ulster
W0, D1, L4Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-17–2026-09-25, 124 for and 168 against. The latest result was Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh. The displayed sample contains 0 home wins from 4 home games and 0 away wins; opponent strength, venue and changed selections limit how directly the old results transfer.
Head-to-head: retrieved league sample
3 – 0 – 2
Glasgow Warriors wins · Draws · Ulster wins; 5 United Rugby Championship meetings, all venues, 2021-09-24–2026-05-15
Glasgow Warriors (3)Glasgow lead the five retrieved meetings three wins to two and won 26–22 in Belfast in May. The four-point latest margin is a check against treating the entire recent rivalry as comfortable. This is the stated retrieved sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | United Rugby Championship | Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors |
| 2024-09-21 | United Rugby Championship | Ulster 20–19 Glasgow Warriors |
| 2023-11-25 | United Rugby Championship | Glasgow Warriors 33–20 Ulster |
| 2023-02-17 | United Rugby Championship | Glasgow Warriors 17–11 Ulster |
| 2021-09-24 | United Rugby Championship | Ulster 35–29 Glasgow Warriors |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Glasgow Warriors 24.8 – Ulster 21.6 across these 5 meetings, oriented to the report teams regardless of venue.
Extended Form
Glasgow WarriorsW14, D0, L6
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 20 games, 2025-10-04–2026-09-26; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-26: Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-06-06: Glasgow Warriors 21–22 Bulls; 2026-05-29: Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht; 2026-05-15: Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08: Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-04-25: Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-04-18: Lions 54–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-03-27: Glasgow Warriors 31–10 Benetton; 2026-03-21: Glasgow Warriors 38–17 Leinster; 2026-02-28: Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-30: Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster; 2026-01-24: Zebre Parma 21–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-03: Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre Parma; 2025-12-27: Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-12-20: Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh; 2025-11-29: Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-24: Glasgow Warriors 21–12 Bulls; 2025-10-18: Ospreys 17–42 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-11: Glasgow Warriors 49–0 Dragons; 2025-10-04: Benetton 16–14 Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors scored 524 and conceded 382 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
UlsterW8, D1, L9
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 18 games, 2025-10-11–2026-09-25; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-25: Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh; 2026-05-15: Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08: Ulster 38–38 Stormers; 2026-04-25: Munster 41–14 Ulster; 2026-04-17: Ulster 21–29 Leinster; 2026-03-28: Zebre Parma 12–28 Ulster; 2026-03-20: Ulster 19–26 Connacht; 2026-03-13: Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster; 2026-02-28: Ospreys 21–10 Ulster; 2026-01-31: Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-01-24: Scarlets 27–22 Ulster; 2026-01-02: Ulster 28–3 Munster; 2025-12-27: Connacht 24–29 Ulster; 2025-12-19: Leinster 24–20 Ulster; 2025-11-28: Ulster 47–13 Benetton; 2025-10-25: Lions 49–31 Ulster; 2025-10-18: Sharks 26–34 Ulster; 2025-10-11: Ulster 28–7 Bulls
Ulster scored 481 and conceded 433 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
Glasgow Warriors XV
Tuipulotu returns at twelve, with McDowall captaining beside him. Cummings and Darge are on the bench; three changes follow the Munster win. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (glasgowwarriors.org), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Ulster XV
Stewart captains a side with Murphy at ten and Devine at nine. Stockdale starts at full-back, with Doak and Augustus among the replacements. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (ulster.rugby), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Key Matchups
Richardson and Schickerling face Knox and O’Sullivan, with complete replacement prop units named. Zander Fagerson is unavailable; no verified scrum-success evidence supports a numerical home advantage. Tuipulotu–McDowall with Horne gives Glasgow the stronger established control axis against Benson–McIlroy and Devine–Murphy. Stockdale and Doak are credible Ulster outlets, so the grade stops at two. Ulster’s young half-backs securing field position early or Glasgow failing to manage the prop rotation would compress the eleven-point margin. Edges here are personnel judgments; overlapping unit rows are not extra scorecard points.
Match Forecast
Glasgow are the eleven-point home pick through stronger form and a clearer selected midfield. Winning 26–20 at Munster was a useful test of control, while Tuipulotu’s return gives Horne another established option. Cummings and Darge should keep the forward contest competitive when replacements arrive. The seven-dimension net is +9; the unmodified two-way house output is 80% for Glasgow Warriors, with no separate draw probability.
Ulster’s May defeat in this fixture was only 26–22, so the prediction needs more than a glance at the table. Stockdale’s finishing and Doak’s bench control can make Glasgow work for every score. Fagerson’s absence is also a reason to leave the set-piece grade unclaimed.
Glasgow Warriors by 11.
Complete: Selected XVs and replacement counts are verified; this describes source completeness, not forecast certainty.
legacy-house-2026-09-v1; raw home probability 0.8040, raw home margin +10.65. Unmodified legacy model probability and raw margin direction; rounded projected margin. Missing selections are disclosed where applicable.
Median 54 points across 9 distinct completed United Rugby Championship games, 2026-04-17–2026-09-26; adjusted -2 for Glasgow’s Horne/Tuipulotu control axis, with their latest rivalry win 26–22; only two points below the league sample median. Rounded to an integer total of 53 compatible with the 11-point projection. This is a scoring projection, not a validated total or interval.
The ±5-point editorial band is not a validated confidence interval; its coverage has not been measured.