Shared SofaScore total URC 2026/27 standings after 2 games per side: Glasgow Warriors 5th on 8, Connacht 10th on 5. The table repeats the form results, so its dimension stays zero.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Rugby Championship 26/27 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +23 | 10 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +19 | 9 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +17 | 9 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +9 | 9 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 8 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 7 | |
| 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +30 | 6 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 6 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 6 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -11 | 5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 5 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -18 | 2 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -33 | 1 | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -47 | 1 | |
Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-15–2026-10-03; 139 points for and 118 against. Glasgow won 26–20 at Munster before drawing 33–33 with Ulster. Three wins and a draw in five favour them slightly, but conceding 33 at Scotstoun keeps this well short of a comfortable home call. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.
Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-09–2026-10-02; 110 points for and 93 against. Connacht recovered from a 29–15 home defeat to Stormers by winning 22–19 in Treviso. Their five-match defensive aggregate is better than Glasgow’s; the issue is sustaining that resistance against a stronger selected midfield. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.
4 – 0 – 2
Glasgow Warriors wins · Draws · Connacht wins; 6 same-competition meetings, all venues, 2022-01-29–2026-05-29
Glasgow won 33–21 here in May, while Connacht won 15–10 in Galway in February. Four Glasgow wins in six are a small rivalry edge, with venue more informative than a claim of dominance. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | United Rugby Championship | Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht |
| 2026-02-28 | United Rugby Championship | Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors |
| 2025-01-26 | United Rugby Championship | Glasgow Warriors 22–19 Connacht |
| 2023-10-28 | United Rugby Championship | Connacht 34–26 Glasgow Warriors |
| 2023-04-22 | United Rugby Championship | Glasgow Warriors 29–27 Connacht |
| 2022-01-29 | United Rugby Championship | Connacht 20–42 Glasgow Warriors |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean: Glasgow Warriors 27.0 – Connacht 22.7; fixed team orientation regardless of venue.
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (20 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-03 Glasgow Warriors 33–33 Ulster; 2026-09-26 Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-06-06 Glasgow Warriors 21–22 Bulls; 2026-05-29 Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht; 2026-05-15 Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08 Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-04-25 Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-04-18 Lions 54–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-03-27 Glasgow Warriors 31–10 Benetton; 2026-03-21 Glasgow Warriors 38–17 Leinster; 2026-02-28 Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-30 Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster; 2026-01-24 Zebre Parma 21–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-03 Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre Parma; 2025-12-27 Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-12-20 Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh; 2025-11-29 Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-24 Glasgow Warriors 21–12 Bulls; 2025-10-18 Ospreys 17–42 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-11 Glasgow Warriors 49–0 Dragons
The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Glasgow won 26–20 at Munster before drawing 33–33 with Ulster. Three wins and a draw in five favour them slightly, but conceding 33 at Scotstoun keeps this well short of a comfortable home call. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (20 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-02 Benetton 19–22 Connacht; 2026-09-25 Connacht 15–29 Stormers; 2026-05-29 Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht; 2026-05-15 Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht; 2026-05-09 Connacht 26–7 Munster; 2026-04-25 Lions 33–21 Connacht; 2026-04-18 Stormers 24–33 Connacht; 2026-03-28 Connacht 21–14 Ospreys; 2026-03-20 Ulster 19–26 Connacht; 2026-03-13 Connacht 31–14 Scarlets; 2026-02-28 Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-31 Zebre Parma 15–31 Connacht; 2026-01-24 Connacht 23–34 Leinster; 2026-01-03 Leinster 52–17 Connacht; 2025-12-27 Connacht 24–29 Ulster; 2025-12-20 Dragons 48–28 Connacht; 2025-11-29 Connacht 44–17 Sharks; 2025-10-25 Munster 17–15 Connacht; 2025-10-17 Connacht 27–28 Bulls; 2025-10-11 Cardiff Rugby 14–8 Connacht
The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Connacht recovered from a 29–15 home defeat to Stormers by winning 22–19 in Treviso. Their five-match defensive aggregate is better than Glasgow’s; the issue is sustaining that resistance against a stronger selected midfield. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.
Watson makes his first appearance of the season; Cummings starts and Dobie moves to scrum-half. McDowall misses out with a head injury. Horne is among a six-forward bench. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.
Aki makes his first start; Hansen and Frawley are selected. Bohan and Illo start at prop, with Bealham among eight replacements. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.
Aki’s first start asks a harder question of Glasgow’s midfield than the May teams did. The starting props and the timing of Bealham’s introduction matter, while Horne can change Glasgow’s attacking speed from the bench. Starting-unit edges are qualified selection judgments; they are not retrieved scrum, lineout or player-performance measurements. Glasgow’s six-forward bench brings Cummings’ supporting options Brown and Oguntibeju, plus Horne for tempo. Connacht answer with Bealham, Murphy and Gilbert; those counters keep the general depth score neutral.
Glasgow Warriors by 7 is the rounded house-model lean. Glasgow’s unbeaten opening two games and 33–21 win in this fixture in May support the home choice. The seven scores total 5, giving a 74% displayed home probability.
Connacht bring Aki and Hansen back into a side with three wins in five and fewer points conceded in that sample. Glasgow’s 33–33 draw shows the visitors can score enough to overturn the venue edge. The scoring projection uses a 46.0-point mean from the two dated five-match samples, rounded to 47 for an integer 7-point difference. The 2–12 band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Glasgow Warriors by 7.
Glasgow Warriors points for–against across the five listed form games.
Connacht points for–against across the five listed form games.
Home-side wins, draws, away-side wins in the 6-meeting scoped sample.
Seven-dimension score from the home perspective before the legacy intercept.