URC 2026/27URC 2026/27 · Round 3
Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow Warriors

v
Connacht

Connacht

Friday 9 October 2026 · 7:45 PM BST
Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Tournament

Championship Standings

Shared SofaScore total URC 2026/27 standings after 2 games per side: Glasgow Warriors 5th on 8, Connacht 10th on 5. The table repeats the form results, so its dimension stays zero.

PosTeamPWLPDPts
United Rugby Championship 26/27
1
SharksSharks
220+2310
2
Cardiff RugbyCardiff Rugby
220+199
3
LionsLions
220+179
4
EdinburghEdinburgh
220+99
5
Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors
210+68
6
DragonsDragons
210+127
7
BullsBulls
211+306
8
StormersStormers
211+106
9
MunsterMunster
211-26
10
ConnachtConnacht
211-115
11
UlsterUlster
201-55
12
BenettonBenetton
201-33
13
LeinsterLeinster
202-73
14
ScarletsScarlets
202-182
15
OspreysOspreys
202-331
16
Zebre ParmaZebre Parma
202-471
2026 Form

Glasgow Warriors

W3, D1, L1
2W streak
D2026-10-03: Glasgow Warriors v Ulster (H)33–330
W2026-09-26: Munster v Glasgow Warriors (A)20–26+6
L2026-06-06: Glasgow Warriors v Bulls (H)21–22-1
W2026-05-29: Glasgow Warriors v Connacht (H)33–21+12
W2026-05-15: Ulster v Glasgow Warriors (A)22–26+4
PF 139PA 118
+21 PD

Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-15–2026-10-03; 139 points for and 118 against. Glasgow won 26–20 at Munster before drawing 33–33 with Ulster. Three wins and a draw in five favour them slightly, but conceding 33 at Scotstoun keeps this well short of a comfortable home call. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.

Connacht

W3, D0, L2
2W streak
W2026-10-02: Benetton v Connacht (A)19–22+3
L2026-09-25: Connacht v Stormers (H)15–29-14
L2026-05-29: Glasgow Warriors v Connacht (A)33–21-12
W2026-05-15: Edinburgh v Connacht (A)5–26+21
W2026-05-09: Connacht v Munster (H)26–7+19
PF 110PA 93
+17 PD

Same-competition games only: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-09–2026-10-02; 110 points for and 93 against. Connacht recovered from a 29–15 home defeat to Stormers by winning 22–19 in Treviso. Their five-match defensive aggregate is better than Glasgow’s; the issue is sustaining that resistance against a stronger selected midfield. The window crosses the off-season; current personnel are assessed separately.

History

Head-to-head: verified recent sample

4 – 0 – 2

Glasgow Warriors wins · Draws · Connacht wins; 6 same-competition meetings, all venues, 2022-01-29–2026-05-29

Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors (4)
(2) ConnachtConnacht
4W
2W

Glasgow won 33–21 here in May, while Connacht won 15–10 in Galway in February. Four Glasgow wins in six are a small rivalry edge, with venue more informative than a claim of dominance. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.

Recent Results

DateCompetitionResult
2026-05-29United Rugby ChampionshipGlasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht
2026-02-28United Rugby ChampionshipConnacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors
2025-01-26United Rugby ChampionshipGlasgow Warriors 22–19 Connacht
2023-10-28United Rugby ChampionshipConnacht 34–26 Glasgow Warriors
2023-04-22United Rugby ChampionshipGlasgow Warriors 29–27 Connacht
2022-01-29United Rugby ChampionshipConnacht 20–42 Glasgow Warriors

Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean: Glasgow Warriors 27.0 – Connacht 22.7; fixed team orientation regardless of venue.

Last 12 Months

Extended Form

Glasgow WarriorsW14, D1, L5

Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (20 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-03 Glasgow Warriors 33–33 Ulster; 2026-09-26 Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-06-06 Glasgow Warriors 21–22 Bulls; 2026-05-29 Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht; 2026-05-15 Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-05-08 Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-04-25 Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-04-18 Lions 54–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-03-27 Glasgow Warriors 31–10 Benetton; 2026-03-21 Glasgow Warriors 38–17 Leinster; 2026-02-28 Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-30 Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster; 2026-01-24 Zebre Parma 21–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-03 Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre Parma; 2025-12-27 Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-12-20 Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh; 2025-11-29 Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-24 Glasgow Warriors 21–12 Bulls; 2025-10-18 Ospreys 17–42 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-10-11 Glasgow Warriors 49–0 Dragons

The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Glasgow won 26–20 at Munster before drawing 33–33 with Ulster. Three wins and a draw in five favour them slightly, but conceding 33 at Scotstoun keeps this well short of a comfortable home call. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.

ConnachtW10, D0, L10

Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (20 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-10-02 Benetton 19–22 Connacht; 2026-09-25 Connacht 15–29 Stormers; 2026-05-29 Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht; 2026-05-15 Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht; 2026-05-09 Connacht 26–7 Munster; 2026-04-25 Lions 33–21 Connacht; 2026-04-18 Stormers 24–33 Connacht; 2026-03-28 Connacht 21–14 Ospreys; 2026-03-20 Ulster 19–26 Connacht; 2026-03-13 Connacht 31–14 Scarlets; 2026-02-28 Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-31 Zebre Parma 15–31 Connacht; 2026-01-24 Connacht 23–34 Leinster; 2026-01-03 Leinster 52–17 Connacht; 2025-12-27 Connacht 24–29 Ulster; 2025-12-20 Dragons 48–28 Connacht; 2025-11-29 Connacht 44–17 Sharks; 2025-10-25 Munster 17–15 Connacht; 2025-10-17 Connacht 27–28 Bulls; 2025-10-11 Cardiff Rugby 14–8 Connacht

The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Connacht recovered from a 29–15 home defeat to Stormers by winning 22–19 in Treviso. Their five-match defensive aggregate is better than Glasgow’s; the issue is sustaining that resistance against a stronger selected midfield. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.

Team News
Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow Warriors XV

Watson makes his first appearance of the season; Cummings starts and Dobie moves to scrum-half. McDowall misses out with a head injury. Horne is among a six-forward bench. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.

Forwards
1Nathan McBeth
2Gregor Hiddleston
3Fin Richardson
4Max Williamson
5Scott Cummings
6Matt Fagerson
7Rory Darge
8Macenzzie Duncan
Backs
9Jamie Dobie
10Dan Lancaster
11Fergus Watson
12Sione Tuipulotu(c)
13Ollie Smith
14Kyle Rowe
15Josh McKay
Replacements
16Seb Stephen
17Patrick Schickerling
18Sam Talakai
19Gregor Brown
20Jare Oguntibeju
21Ally Miller
22George Horne
23Bayley Kuenzle
Connacht

Connacht XV

Aki makes his first start; Hansen and Frawley are selected. Bohan and Illo start at prop, with Bealham among eight replacements. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.unitedrugby.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.

Forwards
1Billy Bohan
2Eoin de Buitléar
3Sam Illo
4Darragh Murray
5Niall Murray
6Cian Prendergast(c)
7Paul Boyle
8Sean Jansen
Backs
9Caolin Blade
10Ciarán Frawley
11Mack Hansen
12Cathal Forde
13Bundee Aki
14Shayne Bolton
15Josh Ioane
Replacements
16Matthew Victory
17Francois van Wyk
18Finlay Bealham
19Josh Murphy
20Shamus Hurley-Langton
21Colm Reilly
22Sean Naughton
23Sam Gilbert
Tactical

Key Matchups

Front row
Nathan McBeth / Gregor Hiddleston / Fin Richardson
Glasgow Warriors
Billy Bohan / Eoin de Buitléar / Sam Illo
Locks
Max Williamson / Scott Cummings
Glasgow Warriors
Darragh Murray / Niall Murray
Back row
Matt Fagerson / Rory Darge / Macenzzie Duncan
Close
Cian Prendergast / Paul Boyle / Sean Jansen
Halfbacks
Jamie Dobie / Dan Lancaster
Close
Caolin Blade / Ciarán Frawley
Centres
Sione Tuipulotu / Ollie Smith
Close
Cathal Forde / Bundee Aki
Back three
Fergus Watson / Kyle Rowe / Josh McKay
Close
Mack Hansen / Shayne Bolton / Josh Ioane

Aki’s first start asks a harder question of Glasgow’s midfield than the May teams did. The starting props and the timing of Bealham’s introduction matter, while Horne can change Glasgow’s attacking speed from the bench. Starting-unit edges are qualified selection judgments; they are not retrieved scrum, lineout or player-performance measurements. Glasgow’s six-forward bench brings Cummings’ supporting options Brown and Oguntibeju, plus Horne for tempo. Connacht answer with Bealham, Murphy and Gilbert; those counters keep the general depth score neutral.

Prediction Scorecard
← Connacht edgeGlasgow Warriors edge →
Home advantage
+2
Form
+1
H2H record
+1
Squad strength
0
Set piece
+1
Backline quality
0
Standings gap
0
Net Score+5
Projection
Glasgow Warriors 74% · GLA 27 – CON 20
Prediction

Match Forecast

Projected ScoreGLA 27 – CON 20
Win ProbabilityGlasgow Warriors 74%
Predicted Margin2–12 pts

Glasgow Warriors by 7 is the rounded house-model lean. Glasgow’s unbeaten opening two games and 33–21 win in this fixture in May support the home choice. The seven scores total 5, giving a 74% displayed home probability.

Connacht bring Aki and Hansen back into a side with three wins in five and fewer points conceded in that sample. Glasgow’s 33–33 draw shows the visitors can score enough to overturn the venue edge. The scoring projection uses a 46.0-point mean from the two dated five-match samples, rounded to 47 for an integer 7-point difference. The 2–12 band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.

Glasgow Warriors by 7.

Facts & Stats
139–118

Glasgow Warriors points for–against across the five listed form games.

110–93

Connacht points for–against across the five listed form games.

4–0–2

Home-side wins, draws, away-side wins in the 6-meeting scoped sample.

5

Seven-dimension score from the home perspective before the legacy intercept.