URC 2026/27 · Round 2
Edinburgh
Stormers
Hive Stadium, Edinburgh
Championship Standings
Verified SofaScore United Rugby Championship standings after one round, retrieved before the 2 October cutoff: Edinburgh 5th on 5, Stormers 3rd on 5. The early table is context; its points gap is not scored again after the same results have already influenced form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bulls | 1 | 1 | 0 | +34 | 5 |
| 2 |  Sharks | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 5 |
| 3 | Stormers | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | 5 |
| 4 |  Glasgow Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 5 |
| 5 | Edinburgh | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| 6 |  Cardiff Rugby | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 4 |
| 7 |  Lions | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Benetton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 |  Dragons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 |  Leinster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Ulster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 |  Munster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 |  Scarlets | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 |  Ospreys | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 1 |
| 15 |  Connacht | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 0 |
| 16 |  Zebre Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | -34 | 0 |
Edinburgh
W4, D0, L1Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-17–2026-09-25, 127 for and 128 against. Edinburgh have four wins in the five retrieved league results, including 34–29 in Belfast. Stormers also won away last week, 29–15 in Galway; that limits the Edinburgh form edge.
Stormers
W2, D1, L2Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-05-08–2026-09-25, 138 for and 116 against. The latest result was Connacht 15–29 Stormers. The displayed sample contains 1 home wins from 1 home games and 1 away wins; opponent strength, venue and changed selections limit how directly the old results transfer.
Head-to-head: retrieved league sample
1 – 1 – 4
Edinburgh wins · Draws · Stormers wins; 6 United Rugby Championship meetings, all venues, 2021-10-09–2026-03-28
Edinburgh (1)Stormers lead the six-game retrieved URC sample four wins to one with a draw. Edinburgh’s 38–7 home win in 2024 and 20–20 home draw show how strongly venue has shaped this rivalry. This is the stated retrieved sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | United Rugby Championship | Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh |
| 2024-10-12 | United Rugby Championship | Edinburgh 38–7 Stormers |
| 2024-03-23 | United Rugby Championship | Stormers 43–21 Edinburgh |
| 2022-10-01 | United Rugby Championship | Stormers 34–18 Edinburgh |
| 2022-06-04 | United Rugby Championship | Stormers 28–17 Edinburgh |
| 2021-10-09 | United Rugby Championship | Edinburgh 20–20 Stormers |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Edinburgh 21.3 – Stormers 27.5 across these 6 meetings, oriented to the report teams regardless of venue.
Extended Form
EdinburghW8, D0, L10
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 18 games, 2025-10-10–2026-09-25; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-25: Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh; 2026-05-15: Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht; 2026-05-09: Dragons 15–24 Edinburgh; 2026-04-24: Edinburgh 33–28 Sharks; 2026-04-17: Edinburgh 31–30 Zebre Parma; 2026-03-28: Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh; 2026-03-21: Lions 54–17 Edinburgh; 2026-03-13: Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster; 2026-02-27: Edinburgh 24–19 Scarlets; 2026-01-31: Leinster 28–20 Edinburgh; 2026-01-23: Edinburgh 17–19 Bulls; 2026-01-03: Benetton 14–15 Edinburgh; 2025-12-27: Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors; 2025-12-20: Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh; 2025-11-29: Edinburgh 19–17 Ospreys; 2025-10-25: Cardiff Rugby 20–19 Edinburgh; 2025-10-17: Edinburgh 43–0 Benetton; 2025-10-10: Munster 20–19 Edinburgh
Edinburgh scored 368 and conceded 437 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
StormersW13, D1, L6
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 20 games, 2025-10-03–2026-09-25; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-25: Connacht 15–29 Stormers; 2026-06-06: Leinster 20–11 Stormers; 2026-05-30: Stormers 44–21 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-05-15: Cardiff Rugby 22–16 Stormers; 2026-05-08: Ulster 38–38 Stormers; 2026-04-25: Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-04-18: Stormers 24–33 Connacht; 2026-03-28: Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh; 2026-03-22: Stormers 29–21 Dragons; 2026-03-14: Bulls 19–32 Stormers; 2026-02-28: Lions 24–10 Stormers; 2026-01-31: Sharks 36–24 Stormers; 2026-01-24: Stormers 19–30 Sharks; 2026-01-03: Stormers 13–8 Bulls; 2025-12-20: Stormers 34–27 Lions; 2025-11-29: Munster 21–27 Stormers; 2025-10-25: Benetton 16–31 Stormers; 2025-10-18: Zebre Parma 13–31 Stormers; 2025-10-10: Scarlets 0–34 Stormers; 2025-10-03: Stormers 26–10 Ospreys
Stormers scored 553 and conceded 400 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
Edinburgh XV
Schoeman returns at loosehead alongside Morris and Blyth-Lafferty. Bradbury and Currie co-captain, with Hepburn and Hill covering the replacement props. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (edinburghrugby.org), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Stormers XV
Kolisi returns to the Stormers, while Ungerer and Ahmed are the new half-back pairing. Norton starts at lock and Mlaba joins the bench. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (rugby365.com), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Key Matchups
Schoeman’s return and the Hepburn–Hill replacement pairing give Edinburgh credible prop coverage against Mchunu–Fouché and Matongo–Sandi. A slight home personnel edge; no live scrum rates were verified. Gelant, Senatla and Zas give Stormers the stronger selected back-three threat. Ungerer–Ahmed is a new combination, while Edinburgh’s Grayson–Patterson pairing offers a route to keep the game territorial. Ahmed establishing reliable control immediately or Stormers winning the gain line without committing extra forwards would erase the small home margin. Edges here are personnel judgments; overlapping unit rows are not extra scorecard points.
Match Forecast
Edinburgh get a two-point model lean, built around their recent Belfast win and Schoeman’s return. There is a credible route through field position and prop depth, especially if the visitors’ changed half-backs take time to settle. This should be read as a contest decided late, not as the model identifying the stronger squad in every department. The seven-dimension net is -1; the unmodified two-way house output is 63% for Edinburgh, with no separate draw probability.
The non-venue dimensions are negative, so the legacy home prior is doing material work. Stormers have won four of the six retrieved meetings and the Gelant–Senatla–Zas back three is a serious problem for the hosts. Kolisi’s return strengthens an already credible away case; Edinburgh cannot rely on the 2024 score repeating itself.
Edinburgh by 2.
Complete: Selected XVs and replacement counts are verified; this describes source completeness, not forecast certainty.
legacy-house-2026-09-v1; raw home probability 0.6336, raw home margin +2.15. Unmodified legacy model probability and raw margin direction; rounded projected margin. Missing selections are disclosed where applicable.
Median 52.5 points across 10 distinct completed United Rugby Championship games, 2026-04-17–2026-09-25; adjusted -5 for Schoeman’s return and a new Stormers half-back pairing favouring a more territorial contest than the mixed old/new league sample. Rounded to an integer total of 48 compatible with the 2-point projection. This is a scoring projection, not a validated total or interval.
The Belfast win, four-of-five form sample and Schoeman’s return supply independent support. Nevertheless the non-venue net is negative, and the selected Stormers loose trio/back three make this explicitly a home-prior-sensitive three-point lean.
The ±5-point editorial band is not a validated confidence interval; its coverage has not been measured.