URC 2026/27 · Round 2
Cardiff Rugby
Zebre Parma
Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Championship Standings
Verified SofaScore United Rugby Championship standings after one round, retrieved before the 2 October cutoff: Cardiff Rugby 6th on 4, Zebre Parma 16th on 0. The early table is context; its points gap is not scored again after the same results have already influenced form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bulls | 1 | 1 | 0 | +34 | 5 |
| 2 |  Sharks | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 5 |
| 3 |  Stormers | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | 5 |
| 4 |  Glasgow Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 5 |
| 5 |  Edinburgh | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| 6 | Cardiff Rugby | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 4 |
| 7 |  Lions | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Benetton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 |  Dragons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 |  Leinster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Ulster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 |  Munster | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 |  Scarlets | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 |  Ospreys | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 1 |
| 15 |  Connacht | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 0 |
| 16 | Zebre Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | -34 | 0 |
Cardiff Rugby
W3, D0, L2Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-24–2026-09-26, 105 for and 136 against. Cardiff won 21–15 at the Scarlets; Zebre conceded 47 at home to the Bulls. Across the retrieved league samples Zebre have five straight defeats, while Cardiff’s home wins show a firmer platform.
Zebre Parma
W0, D0, L5Five most recent retrieved league games, crossing the off-season; no cup or provincial fixtures: 5 completed matches, 2026-04-17–2026-09-26, 99 for and 205 against. The latest result was Zebre Parma 13–47 Bulls. The displayed sample contains 0 home wins from 2 home games and 0 away wins; opponent strength, venue and changed selections limit how directly the old results transfer.
Head-to-head: retrieved league sample
4 – 1 – 0
Cardiff Rugby wins · Draws · Zebre Parma wins; 5 United Rugby Championship meetings, all venues, 2022-05-06–2025-11-29
Cardiff Rugby (4)Cardiff have four wins and a draw in five retrieved URC meetings. The latest Arms Park encounter was only 22–17; the unbeaten sample supports the winner more strongly than a huge margin. This is the stated retrieved sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | United Rugby Championship | Zebre Parma 14–29 Cardiff Rugby |
| 2024-09-20 | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Rugby 22–17 Zebre Parma |
| 2023-11-17 | United Rugby Championship | Zebre Parma 22–22 Cardiff Rugby |
| 2023-03-24 | United Rugby Championship | Zebre Parma 30–34 Cardiff Rugby |
| 2022-05-06 | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Rugby 42–14 Zebre Parma |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Cardiff Rugby 29.8 – Zebre Parma 19.4 across these 5 meetings, oriented to the report teams regardless of venue.
Extended Form
Cardiff RugbyW11, D0, L8
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 19 games, 2025-10-04–2026-09-26; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-26: Scarlets 15–21 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-05-30: Stormers 44–21 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-05-15: Cardiff Rugby 22–16 Stormers; 2026-05-08: Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-04-24: Cardiff Rugby 24–21 Ospreys; 2026-04-18: Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-03-27: Sharks 21–15 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-03-20: Bulls 40–7 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-02-27: Cardiff Rugby 8–7 Leinster; 2026-01-31: Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Rugby; 2026-01-24: Cardiff Rugby 17–8 Benetton; 2026-01-01: Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-12-26: Cardiff Rugby 22–19 Dragons; 2025-12-19: Cardiff Rugby 17–21 Scarlets; 2025-11-29: Zebre Parma 14–29 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-10-25: Cardiff Rugby 20–19 Edinburgh; 2025-10-17: Dragons 17–24 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-10-11: Cardiff Rugby 14–8 Connacht; 2025-10-04: Munster 23–20 Cardiff Rugby
Cardiff Rugby scored 362 and conceded 411 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
Zebre ParmaW1, D0, L17
Retrieved United Rugby Championship sample within the last twelve months, 18 games, 2025-10-05–2026-09-26; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-26: Zebre Parma 13–47 Bulls; 2026-05-16: Sharks 54–19 Zebre Parma; 2026-05-09: Bulls 54–19 Zebre Parma; 2026-04-24: Zebre Parma 18–19 Dragons; 2026-04-17: Edinburgh 31–30 Zebre Parma; 2026-03-28: Zebre Parma 12–28 Ulster; 2026-03-20: Scarlets 36–17 Zebre Parma; 2026-02-28: Munster 21–7 Zebre Parma; 2026-01-31: Zebre Parma 15–31 Connacht; 2026-01-24: Zebre Parma 21–26 Glasgow Warriors; 2026-01-03: Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre Parma; 2025-12-27: Zebre Parma 23–37 Benetton; 2025-12-20: Benetton 21–15 Zebre Parma; 2025-11-29: Zebre Parma 14–29 Cardiff Rugby; 2025-10-25: Leinster 50–26 Zebre Parma; 2025-10-18: Zebre Parma 13–31 Stormers; 2025-10-11: Ospreys 24–0 Zebre Parma; 2025-10-05: Zebre Parma 22–20 Lions
Zebre Parma scored 294 and conceded 606 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
Cardiff Rugby XV
McNally captains a side making four changes after the Scarlets win. Sheedy and Ben Thomas remain key distributors, with Jarrod Evans among the replacements. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (cardiffrugby.wales), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Zebre Parma XV
Mazza captains Zebre with Allan at ten and Gesi on the wing. The announcement lists a full bench, but also a substantial unavailable group. Selected XV and 8 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (zebreparma.it), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Key Matchups
Sio and Sebastian anchor Cardiff’s starting front row, with McNally and Williams at lock. Zebre start Pisani, Minervino and Castellano; the home unit gets a selection edge without claiming verified scrum dominance. Sheedy and Thomas offer Cardiff a settled distribution axis. Allan and Gesi are genuine Zebre scoring routes, so the backline grade stays small. Zebre achieving clean lineout possession without repeated penalties would keep the margin below the home projection. Edges here are personnel judgments; overlapping unit rows are not extra scorecard points.
Match Forecast
Cardiff have the weekend’s clearest Welsh case: current results, selected forwards and the retrieved rivalry all support them. McNally’s pack should let Sheedy play from useful territory. Thirteen points is a working margin that respects the difference between these sides without erasing Zebre’s better moments. The seven-dimension net is +12; the unmodified two-way house output is 84% for Cardiff Rugby, with no separate draw probability.
Zebre’s last visit finished 22–17, which is a useful brake on a blowout prediction. Allan’s control and Gesi’s pace matter if Cardiff give away cheap field position. The 47 points conceded last week are evidence of a defensive problem, not proof that every opponent will score the same amount.
Cardiff Rugby by 13.
Complete: Selected XVs and replacement counts are verified; this describes source completeness, not forecast certainty.
legacy-house-2026-09-v1; raw home probability 0.8417, raw home margin +13.20. Unmodified legacy model probability and raw margin direction; rounded projected margin. Missing selections are disclosed where applicable.
Median 58.5 points across 10 distinct completed United Rugby Championship games, 2026-04-17–2026-09-26; adjusted -2 for Cardiff’s McNally-led pack and Sheedy-led control, with the recent five-point Arms Park meeting tempering the Zebre-concession outliers. Rounded to an integer total of 57 compatible with the 13-point projection. This is a scoring projection, not a validated total or interval.
The ±5-point editorial band is not a validated confidence interval; its coverage has not been measured.