

Toulouse finished top of the 14-team regular season by a street — 86 points, an +364 difference, and the only side to break 80 — earning a bye straight to this semi-final alongside Montpellier. Racing 92 took the harder road: 5th on 74 points, then a nervy 33–31 barrage win away at Pau to book this last-four meeting. The Top 14 semis are staged at a neutral venue, the Orange Vélodrome in Marseille, so seeding earns Toulouse nothing tangible here beyond the favourite's tag — but a 12-point regular-season gap and a maximum-rest week against a side that has played (and won) one more knockout match tells its own story.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 18 | 8 | +364 | 86 | |
| 2 | 26 | 17 | 8 | +237 | 82 | |
| 3 | 26 | 15 | 10 | +205 | 79 | |
| 4 | 26 | 17 | 9 | +152 | 78 | |
| 5 | 26 | 16 | 9 | +105 | 74 | |
| 6 | 26 | 15 | 11 | +190 | 72 | |
| 7 | 26 | 15 | 11 | +104 | 71 | |
| 8 | 26 | 14 | 12 | +103 | 70 | |
| 9 | 26 | 12 | 13 | −106 | 59 | |
| 10 | 26 | 11 | 15 | −91 | 55 | |
| 11 | 26 | 11 | 14 | −40 | 52 | |
| 12 | 26 | 11 | 15 | −122 | 51 | |
| 13 | 26 | 6 | 20 | −247 | 29 | |
| 14 | 26 | 1 | 24 | −854 | 7 |
Read the last five at face value and Toulouse look ordinary — two wins, three defeats, beaten 31–20 by this very Racing side on the final regular-season weekend. But it is a mirage: with top spot and a semi-final bye long since secured, Ugo Mola spent the run-in rotating heavily and resting his internationals, including a month off for Antoine Dupont. The 51–27 dismantling of Toulon and the 38–10 reverse at La Rochelle came with wildly different teams. Now the cavalry is back, the squad is at full tilt, and the rested-superstar version of Toulouse is a different animal entirely.
Racing have peaked at exactly the right time. Four wins from five, the lone defeat a two-point heartbreaker to La Rochelle, and the run includes a 41–13 hammering of Clermont, a 31–20 win over Toulouse on the final round, and a heart-in-mouth 33–31 barrage escape at Pau. Patrice Collazo's side are scoring freely — 172 points across the five — and arrive with genuine momentum and the belief of a team that beat the favourites just a fortnight ago. The caveat: Toulouse rested for that J26 fixture, and Racing have one more bruising knockout in the legs.
30 – 0 – 10
Toulouse wins · Draws · Racing 92 wins (last 40 meetings, all comps)
This is one of the most lopsided rivalries in the French game: across the last 40 meetings Toulouse have won three for every one Racing have claimed, including the 31–7 Champions Cup quarter-final demolition in 2024. But the very recent picture is more competitive — Racing have now won two of the last three, the 37–35 thriller at Toulouse in May 2025 and the 31–20 in Paris this June. Sandwiched between them was a 48–24 Toulouse romp in November. The split season series (one win each, Toulouse winning the home leg by 24, Racing the away leg by 11) is the truest guide, and on neutral Marseille turf the form book and the history book disagree.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | Top 14 | Racing 92 31–20 Toulouse |
| Nov 2025 | Top 14 | Toulouse 48–24 Racing 92 |
| May 2025 | Top 14 | Toulouse 35–37 Racing 92 |
| Nov 2024 | Top 14 | Racing 92 17–21 Toulouse |
| Apr 2024 | Top 14 | Toulouse 32–12 Racing 92 |
| Apr 2024 | Champions Cup | Toulouse 31–7 Racing 92 |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the all-time series Toulouse average roughly 28 points to Racing's 21, and they have rarely lost twice running to this opponent in a generation. The two 2025/26 league meetings split 68–55 in Toulouse's favour overall — but Racing took the most recent one, and that is the scoreline Collazo's men will cling to.
Top 14: 18 wins from 26, minor premiers on 86 pts (+364). Highlights include 56–13 over Bordeaux, 59–24 over Toulon, 68–13 over Montauban, 45–29 over Montpellier. Champions Cup: 77–7 (Sale), 56–19 (Sharks), 59–26 (Bristol) before a 30–15 quarter-final exit at Bordeaux. Late-season losses (La Rochelle 10–38, Clermont 24–27, Racing 20–31) all came with rotated, rested sides.
Even in a season that ended without a European trophy, Toulouse were the dominant domestic force from start to finish — top of the table by four points, the best attack and defence in the competition, and a fixture list littered with 50- and 60-point hauls. The rested run-in masks the reality: at full strength, with Dupont, Ntamack, Kinghorn and Meafou all available, this is the deepest and most talented squad in France.
Top 14: 16 wins from 26, 5th on 74 pts (+105). Wins over Bordeaux (44–32), Clermont (twice, incl. 41–13), Toulon (43–28), Stade Français (47–20) and Toulouse (31–20). Barrage: 33–31 away at Pau. Heavier defeats: 62–20 at Bordeaux, 41–17 at Montpellier, 48–24 at Toulouse. Challenge Cup: pool exit including 61–7 at Ulster.
Racing's season has been a tale of two halves — patchy and at times thrashed before Christmas (61–7 at Ulster, 62–20 at Bordeaux), but increasingly dangerous in the spring. They saved their best for the run-in, beating the league's top side and surviving a barrage shoot-out at Pau. A Tuisova–Fickou midfield and Manu out wide give them genuine firepower; the question is whether the pack and the bench can sustain it for a fourth consecutive must-win week.
Toulouse are at full strength bar one notable absence: kicker and fullback Thomas Ramos is ruled out with a muscle injury, so Blair Kinghorn moves to 15 and takes the goal-kicking. The headline is the return of Antoine Dupont, back after a month out, packing down at 9 alongside Romain Ntamack — a marquee half-back axis Toulouse have rarely been able to field together this season. Jack Willis captains from the back row beside François Cros and Alexandre Roumat, with Emmanuel Meafou and Joshua Brennan locking. Peato Mauvaka starts at hooker with World Cup-winner Julien Marchand in reserve; Santiago Chocobares and Pierre-Louis Barassi form the midfield.
Racing make changes from the barrage win at Pau, with Nathan Hughes promoted to start at number 8 and a powerful midfield of Josua Tuisova and Gaël Fickou named together. Georgia's Romain Taofifenua captains from lock. Antoine Gibert steers at fly-half inside scrum-half Léo Carbonneau, with Joseph Manu's class on the wing and Samuel James at fullback. The front row of Guram Gogichashvili, Janick Tarrit and Demba Bamba is the platform Collazo will look to win the collisions from — Racing know they must front up physically and feed their dangerous outside backs to spring the upset.
The match turns on the 9–10 axis, and that is precisely where Toulouse are strongest and Racing most exposed. A fully fit Dupont–Ntamack pairing — together for the first time in an age — is the single biggest edge on any pitch in Europe, controlling tempo, territory and the breakdown in a way Carbonneau and Gibert simply cannot match. Racing's best route is the midfield: Tuisova is a wrecking ball and Fickou a Test-class operator, and if they can win the gainline and get quick ball to Manu and Spring out wide, they have the strike power to trouble anyone. But Toulouse's back row of Cros, Willis and Roumat is among the best balanced in the world, and behind a dominant set piece they should starve Racing of the platform their dangerous backs need. Strip away one big midfield break and the gap in control is stark.
The scorecard lands at +14 — strong-favourite tier — and it is driven by squad strength and the half-back battle. A fully fit Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, reunited for the first time in months behind an elite Toulouse pack, against Carbonneau and Gibert is the defining mismatch of the night. Add Kinghorn slotting seamlessly in for the injured Ramos, a bench carrying Marchand and Flament, and a full week's rest against a Racing side playing its fourth consecutive must-win game, and the platform overwhelmingly favours the favourites. Toulouse are the deepest, most talented team left standing and the neutral Vélodrome strips Racing of nothing they had at home.
The danger is that Racing are genuinely in form and have a recent scalp to prove it — they beat Toulouse 31–20 only a fortnight ago. But that game came with Toulouse rotating and resting; this is the real thing, with the stars back. Racing's path to the upset runs through Tuisova and Fickou crashing the midfield and feeding Manu and Spring out wide, and if the breakdown becomes a lottery they have the strike power to make it close. More likely, though, Dupont and Ntamack squeeze the territory game, the Toulouse maul grinds, and the favourites pull clear in the final quarter. Two scores Toulouse, into the Stade de France final.
Toulouse by 12+ — Racing beat a rested second-string a fortnight ago, but a full-strength Dupont-and-Ntamack Toulouse is a different beast entirely.