Top 14 2026/27 · Round 5
Castres Olympique
Stade Toulousain
Stade Pierre Fabre, Castres
Championship Standings
Verified SofaScore Top 14 standings after four rounds, retrieved before the 2 October cutoff: Castres Olympique 10th on 8, Stade Toulousain 1st on 15. The early table is context; its points gap is not scored again after the same results have already influenced form.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stade Toulousain | 4 | 3 | 1 | +61 | 15 |
| 2 |  Lyon | 4 | 3 | 1 | +26 | 14 |
| 3 |  Section Paloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | +46 | 14 |
| 4 |  Bayonne | 4 | 3 | 1 | -16 | 13 |
| 5 |  Bordeaux-Bègles | 4 | 2 | 2 | +40 | 10 |
| 6 |  Clermont | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Montpellier | 4 | 2 | 2 | +21 | 9 |
| 8 |  Stade Francais Paris | 4 | 2 | 2 | -16 | 9 |
| 9 |  USA Perpignan | 4 | 2 | 2 | -12 | 9 |
| 10 |  Castres Olympique | 4 | 2 | 2 | -17 | 8 |
| 11 |  Stade Rochelais | 4 | 2 | 2 | -28 | 8 |
| 12 |  RC Toulonnais | 4 | 1 | 3 | +14 | 8 |
| 13 |  Racing 92 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -69 | 5 |
| 14 |  Vannes | 4 | 0 | 4 | -47 | 0 |
Castres Olympique
W2, D0, L2Current 2026/27 season: 4 completed matches, 2026-09-05–2026-09-26, 93 for and 110 against. Castres have two narrow home wins and two away losses; Toulouse have three wins in four and have scored forty or more in their two home victories. Toulouse’s six-point win at Vannes shows their away margins have been smaller.
Stade Toulousain
W3, D0, L1Current 2026/27 season: 4 completed matches, 2026-09-06–2026-09-27, 144 for and 83 against. The latest result was Stade Toulousain 40–18 Montpellier. The displayed sample contains 2 home wins from 2 home games and 1 away wins; opponent strength, venue and changed selections limit how directly the old results transfer.
Head-to-head: retrieved league sample
2 – 0 – 4
Castres Olympique wins · Draws · Stade Toulousain wins; 6 Top 14 meetings, all venues, 2023-11-18–2026-04-18
Castres Olympique (2)
Toulouse won the latest three meetings by forty-six, forty-seven and seventeen. Castres won the two earlier home meetings in this six-game sample, keeping Pierre Fabre resistance in view without declaring the recent away run irrelevant. This is the stated retrieved sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Top 14 | Castres Olympique 25–42 Stade Toulousain |
| 2025-09-27 | Top 14 | Stade Toulousain 59–12 Castres Olympique |
| 2025-04-26 | Top 14 | Stade Toulousain 52–6 Castres Olympique |
| 2024-10-05 | Top 14 | Castres Olympique 28–23 Stade Toulousain |
| 2024-03-02 | Top 14 | Stade Toulousain 33–6 Castres Olympique |
| 2023-11-18 | Top 14 | Castres Olympique 31–23 Stade Toulousain |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Castres Olympique 18.0 – Stade Toulousain 38.7 across these 6 meetings, oriented to the report teams regardless of venue.
Extended Form
Castres OlympiqueW12, D0, L14
Retrieved Top 14 sample within the last twelve months, 26 games, 2025-10-04–2026-09-26; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-26: Clermont 20–6 Castres Olympique; 2026-09-19: Castres Olympique 29–27 RC Toulonnais; 2026-09-12: USA Perpignan 43–29 Castres Olympique; 2026-09-05: Castres Olympique 29–20 Vannes; 2026-06-06: Castres Olympique 38–21 RC Toulonnais; 2026-05-30: USA Perpignan 29–27 Castres Olympique; 2026-05-16: Castres Olympique 33–36 Montpellier; 2026-05-09: Section Paloise 27–15 Castres Olympique; 2026-04-25: Lyon 26–21 Castres Olympique; 2026-04-18: Castres Olympique 25–42 Stade Toulousain; 2026-03-28: Castres Olympique 49–17 Montauban; 2026-03-21: Racing 92 52–21 Castres Olympique; 2026-02-28: Castres Olympique 26–31 Stade Rochelais; 2026-02-14: Bordeaux-Bègles 57–32 Castres Olympique; 2026-01-31: Castres Olympique 28–23 Clermont; 2026-01-24: Bayonne 10–13 Castres Olympique; 2026-01-03: Stade Francais Paris 33–15 Castres Olympique; 2025-12-27: Castres Olympique 36–22 Lyon; 2025-12-20: Montpellier 33–31 Castres Olympique; 2025-11-29: Castres Olympique 23–7 USA Perpignan; 2025-11-22: Stade Rochelais 17–19 Castres Olympique; 2025-11-01: Castres Olympique 26–28 Bordeaux-Bègles; 2025-10-25: Clermont 63–14 Castres Olympique; 2025-10-18: Castres Olympique 29–24 Stade Francais Paris; 2025-10-11: Montauban 28–32 Castres Olympique; 2025-10-04: Castres Olympique 20–16 Racing 92
Castres Olympique scored 666 and conceded 752 in this explicitly bounded sample. Current selections are still unverified, so older personnel advantages are not carried into the scorecard.
Stade ToulousainW20, D0, L8
Retrieved Top 14 sample within the last twelve months, 28 games, 2025-10-05–2026-09-27; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-27: Stade Toulousain 40–18 Montpellier; 2026-09-19: Vannes 23–29 Stade Toulousain; 2026-09-13: Stade Toulousain 48–12 Bordeaux-Bègles; 2026-09-06: Stade Rochelais 30–27 Stade Toulousain; 2026-06-27: Stade Toulousain 28–20 Montpellier; 2026-06-19: Stade Toulousain 71–17 Racing 92; 2026-06-06: Racing 92 31–20 Stade Toulousain; 2026-05-30: Stade Toulousain 39–31 Lyon; 2026-05-17: Stade Rochelais 38–10 Stade Toulousain; 2026-05-09: RC Toulonnais 27–51 Stade Toulousain; 2026-04-26: Stade Toulousain 24–27 Clermont; 2026-04-18: Castres Olympique 25–42 Stade Toulousain; 2026-03-28: Stade Toulousain 45–29 Montpellier; 2026-03-22: Bordeaux-Bègles 44–20 Stade Toulousain; 2026-02-28: Stade Toulousain 68–13 Montauban; 2026-02-15: Stade Francais Paris 9–13 Stade Toulousain; 2026-01-31: Stade Toulousain 31–10 Bayonne; 2026-01-24: Stade Toulousain 59–22 Section Paloise; 2026-01-03: USA Perpignan 30–27 Stade Toulousain; 2025-12-28: Stade Toulousain 60–14 Stade Rochelais; 2025-12-20: Lyon 19–41 Stade Toulousain; 2025-11-29: Stade Toulousain 48–24 Racing 92; 2025-11-22: Montauban 7–49 Stade Toulousain; 2025-11-01: Stade Toulousain 29–17 Stade Francais Paris; 2025-10-26: Stade Toulousain 59–24 RC Toulonnais; 2025-10-18: Section Paloise 30–26 Stade Toulousain; 2025-10-12: Stade Toulousain 56–13 Bordeaux-Bègles; 2025-10-05: Bayonne 40–26 Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain scored 1086 and conceded 644 in this explicitly bounded sample. Current selections are still unverified, so older personnel advantages are not carried into the scorecard.
Castres Olympique XV
Selected XV and bench unverified at the 2 October 2026, 16:52 SAST cutoff. Checked castres-olympique.com, the official LNR round-five match sheet and focused current-week team searches; no selected team was verified. Probable teams, training groups and previous-round selections are excluded, leaving personnel dimensions ungraded.
Stade Toulousain XV
Selected XV and bench unverified at the 2 October 2026, 16:52 SAST cutoff. Checked stadetoulousain.fr, the official LNR round-five match sheet and focused current-week team searches; no selected team was verified. Probable teams, training groups and previous-round selections are excluded, leaving personnel dimensions ungraded.
Key Matchups
No selected-unit edge is asserted before the XVs and benches are verified; “close” in these placeholder rows means ungraded. Romain Ntamack (Stade Toulousain) has 27 points in 4 Top 14 appearances at this four-round cutoff; Thomas Ramos (Stade Toulousain) has 22 points in 3 Top 14 appearances at this four-round cutoff. These are past contributions, not proof that either player is selected this weekend. Toulouse’s announced starting ten and front-row rotation are essential: no regional-derby assumption substitutes for the teams. The league results remain the only graded basis beyond venue and head-to-head.
Match Forecast
Castres are only a one-point provisional probability-model lean, with the legacy home prior carrying most of the argument. Their two current-season home wins supply a route to another close finish. Toulouse’s superior recent results mean there is no basis for presenting this as a confident home pick. The seven-dimension net is -2; the unmodified two-way house output is 61% for Castres Olympique, with no separate draw probability.
Toulouse won the latest three meetings, including 42–25 here, and their four-round form is stronger. Both selections are still unverified, so the squad comparison could move the balance sharply. The current output is a small home-prior-sensitive lean; the opposing case is substantial.
Provisional — Castres Olympique by 1; selected XVs and benches are unverified.
Provisional: Home and away selected XVs and benches; three personnel dimensions are ungraded.
legacy-house-2026-09-v1; raw home probability 0.6133, raw home margin +1.30. Unmodified legacy model probability and raw margin direction; rounded projected margin. Missing selections are disclosed where applicable.
Median 56.5 points across 8 distinct completed Top 14 games, 2026-09-05–2026-09-27; no personnel or weather adjustment is applied because selections are unverified. Rounded to an integer total of 57 compatible with the 1-point projection. This is a scoring projection, not a validated total or interval.
Castres’ two current-season home wins and earlier home H2H successes are independent support, but the negative non-venue net favours Toulouse. The legacy home intercept decides the published lean; pending selections could readily overturn it.
The ±5-point editorial band is not a validated confidence interval; its coverage has not been measured.