Western Force
Waratahs
Scotch College Playing Fields, Swanbourne, Perth
Championship Standings
Force won all three 2026 AUS pool games; Waratahs won two and lost the direct meeting 12–17. This is the final at Scotch College; no unverified bonus-point table is supplied and no separate standings advantage is awarded.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
Western Force
W3, D0, L0Current 2026 AUS pool: 3 completed matches, 2026-09-12–2026-09-27, 86 for and 52 against. Force won all three pool games: 29–28, 40–12 and 17–12. Waratahs beat Brumbies and Reds convincingly before losing the direct meeting, so the unbeaten record receives an edge without pretending every Force win was comfortable.
Waratahs
W2, D0, L1Current 2026 AUS pool: 3 completed matches, 2026-09-13–2026-09-27, 97 for and 55 against. The latest result was Waratahs 12–17 Western Force. The displayed sample contains 0 home wins from 1 home games and 2 away wins; opponent strength, venue and changed selections limit how directly the old results transfer.
Head-to-head: retrieved league sample
2 – 0 – 1
Western Force wins · Draws · Waratahs wins; 3 Super Rugby AUS meetings, all venues, 2025-09-12–2026-09-27
Western Force (2)Force lead the three retrieved AUS meetings two wins to one. Waratahs won last year’s final in Perth 33–26, which is a more relevant warning than importing Super Rugby Pacific results. This is the stated retrieved sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Super Rugby AUS | Waratahs 12–17 Western Force |
| 2025-10-05 | Super Rugby AUS | Western Force 26–33 Waratahs |
| 2025-09-12 | Super Rugby AUS | Waratahs 3–24 Western Force |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Western Force 22.3 – Waratahs 16.0 across these 3 meetings, oriented to the report teams regardless of venue.
Extended Form
Western ForceW3, D0, L1
Retrieved Super Rugby AUS sample within the last twelve months, 4 games, 2025-10-05–2026-09-27; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-27: Waratahs 12–17 Western Force; 2026-09-20: Western Force 40–12 Brumbies; 2026-09-12: Reds 28–29 Western Force; 2025-10-05: Western Force 26–33 Waratahs
Western Force scored 112 and conceded 85 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
WaratahsW3, D0, L1
Retrieved Super Rugby AUS sample within the last twelve months, 4 games, 2025-10-05–2026-09-27; partial provider history, not a claim to cover every fixture. 2026-09-27: Waratahs 12–17 Western Force; 2026-09-19: Reds 19–47 Waratahs; 2026-09-13: Brumbies 19–38 Waratahs; 2025-10-05: Western Force 26–33 Waratahs
Waratahs scored 130 and conceded 81 in this explicitly bounded sample. Changes across the off-season mean this is background evidence; the named current XV and reserves are assessed separately.
Western Force XV
McLaughlin-Phillips returns at ten and O’Connor is named among ten replacements. Beale and Pietsch start, with Dolly captaining the same final squad format. Selected XV and 10 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (rugby.com.au), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:28 UTC.
Waratahs XV
Wilson returns at scrum-half as Waratahs make seven changes; Harvey is unavailable. Faingaa, Scott-Young and Reimer appear in the ten-player replacement group. Selected XV and 10 replacements verified from the retained announcement/match-centre source (rugby.com.au), retrieved 2 October 2026 at 14:26 UTC.
Key Matchups
Robertson–Dolly–Epenisa face Lambert–Dobbins–Langi. Both benches are complete, but no comparable current scrum or lineout efficiency was verified; zero is ungraded. Beale and Pietsch alongside the returning McLaughlin-Phillips offer Force slightly more established attacking direction. Wilson’s return gives Waratahs a real improvement at nine rather than an assumed selection downgrade. Wilson lifting Waratahs’ exit speed, or Force failing to turn Beale’s distribution into territory, would narrow the eight-point call. Edges here are personnel judgments; overlapping unit rows are not extra scorecard points.
Match Forecast
Force have earned the final lean through their unbeaten pool campaign rather than through a generic home-ground assumption. The 17–12 win last week demonstrates a route to restrict this attack, while McLaughlin-Phillips adds control. Eight points allows for better home attacking options without turning a five-point rehearsal into a rout. The seven-dimension net is +6; the unmodified two-way house output is 76% for Western Force, with no separate draw probability.
Waratahs won this final in Perth a year ago and regain Wilson for the rematch. Both sides have ten announced replacements; there is no missing-bench penalty disguised as a prediction. The pool scoring median is reduced for a final and the low-scoring direct meeting, but that is an editorial total adjustment rather than a calibrated final model.
Western Force by 8.
Complete: Selected XVs and replacement counts are verified; this describes source completeness, not forecast certainty.
legacy-house-2026-09-v1; raw home probability 0.7599, raw home margin +8.10. Unmodified legacy model probability and raw margin direction; rounded projected margin. Missing selections are disclosed where applicable.
Median 57 points across 5 distinct completed Super Rugby AUS games, 2026-09-12–2026-09-27; adjusted -8 for the final and last week’s 29-point direct meeting; this is an explicit eight-point final-context adjustment, not a fitted competition rule. Rounded to an integer total of 50 compatible with the 8-point projection. This is a scoring projection, not a validated total or interval.
The ±5-point editorial band is not a validated confidence interval; its coverage has not been measured.