Nations Championship · Round 2
New Zealand
Italy
Sky Stadium, Wellington
Championship Standings
Round 1 of the inaugural World Rugby Nations Championship is in the books, and the Rest of World group holds the early edge — South Africa (45–21 v England), New Zealand (34–32 v France) and Japan (27–10 v Italy) all won their openers, leaving Australia, Argentina and Fiji chasing. In Europe, Wales, Scotland and Ireland all won, France banked two bonus points in a two-point loss to the All Blacks, and England and Italy sit pointless. The competition is two groups of six playing a full cross-group round-robin — four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four tries and for losing by seven or fewer — with the group standings seeding a Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. The tables below are seeded on points then points difference after Round 1.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | +24 | 5 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 |  Japan | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 4 |
| 4 |  Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 |  Argentina | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 1 |
| 6 |  Fiji | 1 | 0 | 1 | -15 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 |  Wales | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 5 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 5 |
| 3 |  Ireland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 |  France | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Italy | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 0 |
| 6 |  England | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | 0 |
New Zealand
W4, L1The All Blacks opened their Nations Championship with a 34–32 squeaker over a shadow France — a two-point margin that flattered a French side missing half its first-choice XV, and a scoreline that will not have pleased Dave Rennie despite the win. Before that, a strong northern tour dispatched Ireland (26–13), Scotland (25–17) and Wales (52–26), with only a 33–19 Twickenham loss to blot the run. This is a settled, high-quality side that has now beaten everyone bar England in the last eight months — and it faces Italy at home, where the All Blacks simply do not lose to sides ranked outside the top five.
Italy
W1, L4Italy arrive in a genuine rut. The 27–10 loss to Japan in Yokohama was the round's biggest upset — the Azzurri were favourites and were beaten up front by a side they expect to handle — and it capped a 2026 that flattered to deceive. A 23–18 win over England in Rome was the highlight, but it was bookended by a 33–8 hammering in Paris, a 31–17 loss in Cardiff and now the Japan reverse. One win in five, 129 points conceded, and a scrum that leaked badly against Japan: this is not the form line you want before a trip to New Zealand.
Head-to-Head Record
11 – 0 – 0
New Zealand wins · Draws · Italy wins (all 11 meetings since 1987)
New Zealand (11)There is no rivalry here — there is only a record. New Zealand have played Italy eleven times and won all eleven, by an average of 63–10. Italy have never come within 10 points; the closest they have ever run the All Blacks was a 31–21 defeat at the 1991 World Cup, and the highs of horror include a 101–3 in 1999 and a 96–17 at the 2023 World Cup. The most recent meeting, a 29–11 in Turin in November 2024, was actually one of Italy's better efforts — and they still lost by 18. This is as one-sided a head-to-head as exists in the Test game.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | Autumn International | New Zealand 29–11 Italy |
| Sep 2023 | Rugby World Cup | New Zealand 96–17 Italy |
| Nov 2021 | Autumn International | New Zealand 47–9 Italy |
| Nov 2018 | Autumn International | New Zealand 66–3 Italy |
| Nov 2016 | Autumn International | New Zealand 68–10 Italy |
| Nov 2012 | Autumn International | New Zealand 42–10 Italy |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: New Zealand 63 – Italy 10 across eleven meetings. Even Italy's best day — the 31–21 at the 1991 World Cup — was a 10-point loss, and the Azzurri have never held the All Blacks under 29 points. In New Zealand, this fixture has only ever gone one way, and there is no reason from the record to expect anything different in Wellington.
Extended Form
New Zealand9W, 3L (last 12 months)
A Rugby Championship featuring home-and-away Bledisloe wins over Australia and a 24–17 win over South Africa (offset by a 43–10 home loss to the Boks and a 29–23 defeat in Argentina), a northern tour that beat Ireland, Scotland and Wales (loss to England), and a 34–32 Nations Championship opener over France.
New Zealand's only real wobbles in the window came against the very best — a heavy home loss to South Africa and a road defeat in Argentina. Against everyone else they have been consistent and, at home, close to untouchable. Even the rotated XV named for this Test carries 800-plus caps and multiple Rugby Championship regulars — the depth is a chasm above what Italy can field.
Italy4W, 7L (last 12 months)
Wins over Australia (26–19), Chile, Scotland and England (23–18) in the last year — but losses to South Africa three times (including 45–0 and 42–24 on tour), plus defeats to Ireland, France, Wales and, most damagingly, Japan (27–10) in the Nations Championship opener.
Italy's ceiling — the England win in Rome, a competitive first half against South Africa — shows a side that can trouble anyone for 40 minutes. But the floor is a 45–0 in Gqeberha and a 27–10 to Japan, and the pattern is a scrum and breakdown that get overpowered against genuine physicality. New Zealand at home will offer more of that pressure than anyone Italy have faced this year.
New Zealand XV
Dave Rennie makes five changes to the starting XV that edged France, with Ardie Savea (107 caps) again captaining from No. 8. Tyrel Lomax returns at tighthead for a milestone 50th cap, Tupou Vaa'i is back in the second row alongside Sam Darry, and Wallace Sititi shifts into the starting back row. Ruben Love keeps the 10 jersey outside Cam Roigard, with Leroy Carter on the left wing and Billy Proctor at 13. Beauden Barrett misses out again; the bench carries two potential debutants in loose forward Anton Segner and fullback Josh Moorby, with 88-cap Anton Lienert-Brown offering vast experience among the reserves.
Italy XV
Gonzalo Quesada keeps faith with an experienced spine after the Japan defeat, captained by flanker Michele Lamaro. The front row of Danilo Fischetti, Tommaso Di Bartolomeo and Marco Riccioni fronts a pack with the Cannone brothers (Niccolò and Lorenzo) and South African-born back-rower Ross Vintcent. Behind, Stephen Varney and Paolo Garbisi run the game, with the dangerous centre pairing of Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, Louis Lynagh and Malik Faissal on the wings and Tommaso Allan at fullback. Federico Ruzza and scrum-half Alessandro Garbisi anchor a bench that will need to hold up in the final quarter against the All Blacks' finishers.
Key Matchups
The one area where Italy can genuinely compete is midfield: Menoncello and Brex are a Test-class centre pairing, Menoncello in particular a line-breaking handful who reads Brex's running before the ball arrives. Beyond that, the picture is grim for the Azzurri. Ardie Savea leads a back row that outclasses Italy's on power and breakdown threat, Roigard and a settled McKenzie–Jordan axis give New Zealand a tempo Italy cannot match, and the All Blacks' set piece — even reshuffled — should own the collision. Italy's route to respectability is the same one that beat England: slow the game, kick for territory, and make Garbisi's boot the scoreboard. But their scrum was exposed by Japan, and if New Zealand get quick ball, McKenzie and Jordan will turn it into tries in bunches.
Match Forecast
New Zealand should win this comfortably, and the only real question is the size of the margin. The scorecard nets out at +21 to the All Blacks — a mismatch tier driven by an 11–0 head-to-head record (average 63–10, Italy never within 10 points), a squad-strength chasm that even Rennie's five rotations cannot close, and an Italian side arriving pointless after being beaten by Japan as favourites. At home, with Savea's back row, Roigard's tempo and a McKenzie–Jordan strike axis, New Zealand have every tool to run this into the 40s.
Italy's hope is narrow but real: the Menoncello–Brex midfield is genuinely good, and the game plan that beat England — slow tempo, territory, Garbisi's boot — can keep them respectable for 50 minutes if their scrum holds. But it did not hold against Japan, and the All Blacks' bench, carrying Lienert-Brown and two eager debutants, arrives against tiring legs exactly when the scoreboard tends to run away. Expect Italy to compete early, then fade as New Zealand's class and depth tell — a bonus-point win with plenty to spare.
New Zealand by 25–35, with the bonus point secured early — Italy will land a few blows in the midfield, but the gap in class and depth is simply too wide.
New Zealand have won all eleven Tests ever played against Italy, by an average of 63–10. Italy have never come within 10 points of the All Blacks.
Tyrel Lomax reaches his half-century of Test caps at tighthead — one of five changes Dave Rennie makes to the side that edged France 34–32 in Round 1.
Italy arrive off the round's biggest upset — but the wrong way round: they were beaten by Japan as favourites, a first-ever loss to the Brave Blossoms.
The All Blacks' record win over Italy came at the 2023 World Cup. Even Italy's best-ever day — a 31–21 defeat at the 1991 World Cup — ended in a 10-point loss.
Even a rotated New Zealand matchday 23 carries more than 800 Test caps and multiple Rugby Championship regulars — a depth Italy simply cannot match.
Italy have conceded 129 points across their last five Tests, winning just one — and their scrum was visibly overpowered by Japan a week ago.