Nations Championship · Round 3
New Zealand
Ireland
Eden Park, Auckland
Championship Standings
This is the marquee fixture of Round 3 — first versus first, the leaders of the Rest of World group against the leaders of Europe. Both sides are 2–0 and unbeaten: New Zealand have swept aside France (34–32) and Italy (47–17) at home, while Ireland have won on the road at Australia (33–31) and Japan (36–20). The competition is two groups of six playing a full cross-group round-robin — four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four tries and for losing by seven or fewer — with the group standings seeding a Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. South Africa lead the Rest of World on points difference; the All Blacks sit second on the same 10 points. Ireland top Europe outright. The tables below are seeded on points then points difference after Round 2.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | +38 | 10 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 2 | 2 | 0 | +32 | 10 |
| 3 |  Argentina | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 |  Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Australia | 2 | 0 | 2 | -23 | 2 |
| 6 |  Fiji | 2 | 0 | 2 | -80 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 | Ireland | 2 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 10 |
| 2 |  France | 2 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 2 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 |  England | 2 | 1 | 1 | +41 | 5 |
| 5 |  Wales | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Italy | 2 | 0 | 2 | -47 | 0 |
New Zealand
W4, L1The All Blacks have opened their Nations Championship at home and taken the maximum — a nervy 34–32 escape against France, then a 47–17 dismantling of Italy that looked far more like it. The one blemish in this run is a 33–19 loss at Twickenham to England back in November, a reminder that this side can be got at when its discipline slips. But the return of Eden Park changes the calculus entirely: the All Blacks have not lost here in 52 Tests, and Ireland — beaten 26–13 in Dublin last November — arrive as the visitors, not the hosts. Points have flowed both ways (177 for, 125 against), which tells you this is a team that plays at pace and will trade blows rather than strangle a game.
Ireland
W5Ireland are on a six-match winning streak and have looked like the most rounded side in the Northern Hemisphere doing it — a 42–21 rout of England at Twickenham, then bonus-point wins over Wales and Scotland to close the Six Nations, and now two on the road in the Nations Championship. The Australia win (33–31) was a genuine dogfight decided late; the Japan win (36–20) was managed with more comfort. What should worry New Zealand is the balance: 181 points scored to 110 conceded across these five, a defence that has kept its shape and an attack that scores from everywhere. The one caveat is travel — this is Ireland's third consecutive away Test in the Southern Hemisphere, and the miles are starting to add up.
Head-to-Head Record
14 – 0 – 5
New Zealand wins · Draws · Ireland wins (last 19 Test meetings)
New Zealand (14)For most of this fixture's history it was a mismatch — then Ireland changed the story. Chicago 2016 (40–29) was Ireland's first-ever win over the All Blacks in 111 years of trying, and in 2022 they went to New Zealand and won the series 2–1, the first Northern Hemisphere side to do so on New Zealand soil. But the pendulum has swung back hard: New Zealand have won the last three meetings — the 2023 World Cup quarter-final (28–24), then 23–13 and 26–13 in Dublin — and, crucially, Ireland have never won at Eden Park. Their four visits here (2002, 2006, 2012, 2022) have all ended in defeat, the 2022 opener a 42–19 hammering before they regrouped elsewhere. New Zealand own the venue; Ireland own the recent away psychology. Something gives.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Autumn Test | New Zealand 26–13 Ireland |
| Nov 2024 | Autumn Test | New Zealand 23–13 Ireland |
| Oct 2023 | Rugby World Cup | New Zealand 28–24 Ireland |
| Jul 2022 | Summer Tour | Ireland 32–22 New Zealand |
| Jul 2022 | Summer Tour | Ireland 23–12 New Zealand |
| Jul 2022 | Summer Tour | New Zealand 42–19 Ireland |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: New Zealand have won the last three by an average of 15 points, and Ireland have not beaten them since the 2022 series. The venue is the killer stat: Ireland are 0–4 at Eden Park, where the All Blacks have not lost a Test to anyone since 1994.
Extended Form
New Zealand12W, 3L (last 12 months)
Wins over France (three times in July 2025, plus 34–32 in this campaign), Argentina (41–24), South Africa (24–17), Australia (33–24 and 28–14), Ireland (26–13), Scotland (25–17), Wales (52–26) and Italy (47–17). The three defeats: 29–23 to Argentina in Buenos Aires, a 43–10 blowout to South Africa in Wellington, and 33–19 to England at Twickenham.
This is a high-ceiling, occasionally leaky New Zealand — capable of putting 50 on Wales and beating South Africa at home, but also of shipping 43 to the Boks and losing to England on the road. The pattern is clear: at home, and especially at Eden Park, they are formidable; away from home in November they can be undone by a well-drilled defence. Ireland are exactly the kind of well-drilled defence that has caused them problems — but this one is in Auckland.
Ireland10W, 3L (last 12 months)
Wins over Japan (41–10 and 36–20), Australia (46–19 and 33–31), Italy (20–13), England (42–21), Wales (27–17), Scotland (43–21), Georgia (34–5) and Portugal (106–7). The three losses: 26–13 to New Zealand, 24–13 to South Africa, and 36–14 to France in the Six Nations opener.
Ireland's only defeats in a year have come against the three sides ranked around them at the very top — New Zealand, South Africa and France — and two of those were away from home. Against everyone else they have been ruthless. The France loss in February was the wobble that defined their Six Nations; they responded by winning their last four in the tournament and then both Nations Championship games abroad. A settled, near-first-choice XV is the strongest hand Andy Farrell can play.
New Zealand XV
Dave Rennie makes four personnel changes and one positional switch to defend the Eden Park record. The eye-catcher is Tupou Vaa'i shifting from lock to blindside flanker, freeing Josh Lord to partner Patrick Tuipulotu in the second row. Rookie wing Josh Moorby earns a first Test start after impressing off the bench against Italy, with Will Jordan retained on the right and Damian McKenzie at fullback. Ruben Love gets the nod at 10 — Beauden Barrett misses the matchday squad entirely — with Cam Roigard inside him and Jordie Barrett passed fit at 12. Ardie Savea captains from No 8.
Ireland XV
Andy Farrell brings out the big guns, making nine changes and naming what is effectively his first-choice XV. Jamison Gibson-Park returns at scrum-half to run the game with Sam Prendergast at 10; Garry Ringrose is back at outside centre alongside Stuart McCloskey, and Hugo Keenan returns at fullback. Robert Baloucoune comes straight in on the right wing after shaking off a hamstring injury. The pack is loaded — Tadhg Furlong and Joe McCarthy return, Tadhg Beirne shifts to blindside, and Dan Sheehan captains from hooker. Bundee Aki and Ronan Kelleher headline a heavyweight bench.
Key Matchups
The contest splits cleanly: Ireland's set piece against New Zealand's back three. Furlong, Sheehan, Ryan, McCarthy and Beirne form arguably the best forward unit in the world, and if Ireland get the maul rolling and the scrum steady they can dictate territory and starve the All Blacks of ball. New Zealand's counter is width and broken-field threat — Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie are as dangerous as any back three on the planet, and Eden Park is where they turn half-chances into tries. The pivot is the No 10 duel: Ruben Love is playing his biggest Test to date opposite a Prendergast who has grown into Ireland's controller. Whoever's kicking game wins the territorial battle likely wins the match — and the breakdown fight between Savea, Van der Flier and Beirne will decide whose 10 gets front-foot ball.
Match Forecast
This is the closest call of the round, and the scorecard nets to just +7 — a small home margin, not a comfortable one. What tips it to New Zealand is Eden Park (+3): a ground where they have not lost in 52 Tests since 1994, where Ireland are 0–4, and which the tourists reach on the third leg of a long Southern Hemisphere trip. Add a head-to-head that has swung firmly back the All Blacks' way — three straight wins including 26–13 in Dublin last November — and the venue psychology alone is worth a score. The World Rugby rankings model agrees, giving New Zealand roughly 71%; blend it with the scorecard and you land around 74%.
But make no mistake: Ireland are good enough to win this, and everyone knows it. Their pack — Furlong, Sheehan, Ryan, McCarthy, Beirne — is the best forward unit in the world, and if they get the set piece and maul purring they can strangle the game and force New Zealand to play from deep. Ireland proved in 2022 that they can win on New Zealand soil; they've just never done it at this particular ground. The realistic path to an upset is a slow, territory-based arm-wrestle that denies Jordan and McKenzie space. If the game opens up, though, New Zealand at Eden Park are the more likely to score the decisive tries — and that's why they're favoured, narrowly.
New Zealand to win a genuine heavyweight clash by a score — Eden Park and the recent head-to-head just edge it, but Ireland's pack will make them earn every point.
New Zealand have not lost a Test at Eden Park since 1994 — 52 matches unbeaten (50 wins, 2 draws), the longest such run in the sport.
Ireland have lost all four previous visits to Eden Park (2002, 2006, 2012 and 2022) — they have never won a Test at the ground.
Both sides are 2–0 and top their groups on 10 points — New Zealand lead the Rest of World on points difference behind South Africa, Ireland top Europe outright.
Andy Farrell brings back his big guns — nine changes and a near first-choice XV, with Gibson-Park, Furlong, Ringrose, Keenan and McCarthy all returning.
New Zealand have won the last three meetings — the 2023 World Cup quarter-final (28–24) and two Dublin Tests (23–13, 26–13) — after Ireland's 2022 series win on Kiwi soil.
Ireland arrive on a six-Test winning run stretching back to their Six Nations rout of England, having scored 181 points to 110 across their last five.