Nations Championship · Round 1
Japan
Italy
Chichibunomiya (Prince Chichibu) Memorial Stadium, Tokyo
Championship Standings
The inaugural Nations Championship opens here — six simultaneous cross-hemisphere fixtures with every team on zero. Japan sit in the Rest of World conference, Italy in the European; the only table that matters right now is who lands the first blow.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Fiji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 |  Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Wales | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Japan
W1, L4A brutal autumn that reads worse than it felt in patches. Japan pushed Australia to four points and Wales to a single score in Cardiff, then salvaged the tour with a gutsy 25–23 win in Tbilisi — but were flattened 41–10 by Ireland and humiliated 61–7 by South Africa in between. The pattern is clear: Eddie Jones's side stay in the fight against sides they can match physically, and get blown away the moment the opposition's power game clicks. Conceding 168 points in five Tests is a defensive problem no amount of tempo fixes on its own.
Italy
W2, L3Italy's 2026 Six Nations was their most credible in years — a fourth-place finish built on home wins over Scotland and, for the first time ever in the Championship, England (23–18). The losses tell the honest story: competitive with Ireland (20–13), outclassed away to France, and undone late in Cardiff. This is a side that beats anyone at home and still leaks on the road, but under Gonzalo Quesada the floor has risen sharply. Jones himself called them 'the most improved team in the world' — that's not flattery, it's a warning.
Head-to-Head Record
3 – 0 – 8
Japan wins · Draws · Italy wins (11 meetings)
Japan (3)Italy hold an 8–3 edge across eleven meetings and, crucially, have won the last two by a combined 49 points — 42–14 in Tokyo in 2024 and 42–21 in Genoa in 2023. Japan's wins are real but dated: they haven't beaten the Azzurri since the 34–17 in Kobe back in 2018. On recent evidence this is not the even rivalry the raw ledger once suggested.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | Test | Japan 14–42 Italy |
| Aug 2023 | Test | Italy 42–21 Japan |
| Jun 2018 | Test | Japan 22–25 Italy |
| Jun 2018 | Test | Japan 34–17 Italy |
| Jun 2014 | Test | Japan 26–23 Italy |
| Aug 2011 | Test | Italy 31–24 Japan |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the last two meetings Italy have averaged 42 points to Japan's 17.5 — a 24.5-point swing that reframes a once-tight series as a growing gulf.
Extended Form
JapanW6, L7 (last 12 months)
Beat Wales 24–19 (Jul 2025), thrashed Tonga 62–24, USA 47–21 and Canada 57–15 in the Pacific Nations Cup, and edged Georgia 25–23. On the debit side: narrow losses to Australia (19–15) and Wales (24–23), plus heavy defeats to Ireland (41–10) and South Africa (61–7).
Eddie Jones's rebuild is a mix of exciting attacking spells and defensive fragility. Japan can bank routine wins against tier-two opposition but the gap to the top tier remains stark. The recurring theme is a young, mobile pack that competes for 50 minutes and then wilts.
ItalyW5, L5 (last 12 months)
Six Nations 2026 wins over Scotland (18–15) and England (23–18), plus an autumn 34–19 over Chile. Losses to Ireland, France and Wales, all away from Rome.
Italy under Quesada have become a genuine home fortress and a much harder out everywhere else. The historic first win over England is the headline, but the deeper progress is in discipline and set-piece reliability. Away from Europe on a summer tour is the one box they still haven't ticked.
Japan XV
Eddie Jones names a strikingly young side: Meiji University student Ryunosuke Ito debuts at fly-half behind a backline with fewer than 60 caps combined, and Hurricanes lock Warner Dearns captains rather than veteran Michael Leitch, who drops to the bench as a finisher. Naoto Saito (Toulouse) and Dylan Riley provide the experience; Moana Pasifika hooker Mamoru Harada starts. It's a selection built around tempo and the Tokyo heat — a bold, developmental XV.
Italy XV
Quesada sends out a near-strongest XV led by captain Michele Lamaro. Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex anchor a powerful midfield, Stephen Varney and Paolo Garbisi run the game, and Monty Ioane and Lorenzo Pani carry the back-three finishing. Danilo Fischetti and Marco Riccioni prop a seasoned front row; debutants Alessandro Ortombina (6) and Malik Faissal (14) get their first caps, with Tommaso Allan a proven closer among the reserves.
Key Matchups
The decisive battle is at half-back, where a debutant fly-half in Ryunosuke Ito must control a Test match against the composure of Varney and Garbisi — a mismatch of experience Italy will hunt relentlessly. Menoncello and Brex give the Azzurri arguably the best midfield in this fixture's history, and Italy's set piece should provide a steady platform against a lighter Japanese pack. Japan's hope lives in tempo: if Dearns and Cornelsen can quicken the ruck and drag Italy into a running game in the Tokyo heat, the home speedsters out wide are dangerous. But that plan asks a great deal of a backline with under 60 caps between them.
Match Forecast
The scorecard lands at net -8 — a clear-favourite margin driven by Italy's edge in squad strength, set piece, backline and head-to-head history. Quesada's side are a settled, top-ten team coming off a fourth-place Six Nations and a landmark win over England; Japan are handing a Test debut to their fly-half behind a backline with fewer than 60 caps. Italy's forward platform and the Varney–Garbisi axis should control territory and squeeze the scoreboard, exactly as they did in winning the last two meetings by an average of 24.5 points.
The caveats are real and they all favour a closer game than the raw gap suggests. This is Italy's first assignment of a long-haul summer tour, in Tokyo heat and humidity that has undone European sides before, and Japan under Eddie Jones always fly for 50 minutes at home. If Dearns and Cornelsen win the tempo battle and the debutants settle, an ambush is not fantasy. But asking a first-cap 10 to out-think Italy's experience over 80 minutes is the bet against — Italy should pull clear in the final quarter as the bench and the fatigue tell.
Italy by two scores — but Japan's tempo and the Tokyo heat will make the Azzurri earn every point before the class gap tells late.