Nations Championship · Round 2
Japan
Ireland
McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Championship Standings
Round 1 of the inaugural World Rugby Nations Championship is in the books, and the Rest of World group holds the early edge — South Africa (45–21 v England), New Zealand (34–32 v France) and Japan (27–10 v Italy) all won their openers, leaving Australia, Argentina and Fiji chasing. In Europe, Wales, Scotland and Ireland all won, France banked two bonus points in a two-point loss to the All Blacks, and England and Italy sit pointless. The competition is two groups of six playing a full cross-group round-robin — four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four tries and for losing by seven or fewer — with the group standings seeding a Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. The tables below are seeded on points then points difference after Round 1.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | +24 | 5 |
| 2 |  New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Japan | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 4 |
| 4 |  Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 |  Argentina | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 1 |
| 6 |  Fiji | 1 | 0 | 1 | -15 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 |  Wales | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 5 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 5 |
| 3 | Ireland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 |  France | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 0 |
| 6 |  England | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | 0 |
Japan
W2, L3Japan open the Nations Championship account with a statement — a 27–10 dismantling of a favoured Italy in Tokyo, the round's biggest upset and easily their most convincing result of the Eddie Jones era. It flips the mood after a grim autumn in which they leaked 41 to Ireland and 61 to South Africa. The template against Italy was tempo and ferocity at the breakdown, exactly the game Jones wants — and it landed. This is a young side that has finally strung eighty minutes together, and it travels to Newcastle believing.
Ireland
W5, L0Five straight wins, the only recent blemish an away loss to eventual champions France back in February. Ireland were the second-best side in the 2026 Six Nations — a 42–21 hammering of England the high-water mark — and they opened this tour with a 33–31 escape in Sydney. That two-point margin is the story worth holding onto: a full-strength Ireland were pushed to the final play by a modest Australia. Now Andy Farrell has torn up that XV, making nine changes with one eye firmly on New Zealand in Auckland next week.
Head-to-Head Record
1 – 0 – 7
Japan wins · Draws · Ireland wins (8 meetings)
Japan (1)Ireland own this fixture — seven wins from eight, and four in a row since Japan's famous 19–12 ambush at the 2019 World Cup in Shizuoka. That Brave Blossoms upset remains the only blot on Ireland's ledger, and it has been thoroughly avenged: 39–31 and 60–5 in the 2021 series, then a 41–10 rout in Dublin last November. Japan have never beaten Ireland outside a World Cup, and never at all when Ireland field even a rotated pack with genuine set-piece heft.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Autumn Test | Ireland 41–10 Japan |
| Jul 2021 | Summer Test | Ireland 60–5 Japan |
| Jul 2021 | Summer Test | Ireland 39–31 Japan |
| Sep 2019 | World Cup | Japan 19–12 Ireland |
| Jun 2017 | Summer Test | Japan 13–35 Ireland |
| Jun 2017 | Summer Test | Japan 22–50 Ireland |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the last four meetings Ireland have averaged 44 points to Japan's 14 — a 30-point chasm. Even the 39–31 in 2021, Japan's most competitive recent showing, still ended in an eight-point Irish win.
Extended Form
Japan7W, 6L (last 12 months)
The Nations Championship win over Italy (27–10) headlines a mixed year: a home win over Wales (24–19) and Pacific Nations Cup routs of Tonga (62–24), USA (47–21) and Canada (57–15), set against the narrow loss to Australia (19–15) and the autumn maulings by Ireland (41–10) and South Africa (61–7).
Eddie Jones's rebuild has always flashed potential; the Italy result is the first time it has translated into a scalp that matters. The young, mobile pack that wilted late through the autumn held firm for eighty against the Azzurri. The gap to the very top tier is still real — the SA and Ireland scorelines from November prove it — but the trajectory is finally upward.
Ireland9W, 3L (last 12 months)
Summer-tour wins over Portugal (106–7) and Georgia, autumn wins over Australia (46–19) and Japan (41–10) either side of losses to New Zealand and South Africa, a 2026 Six Nations of four wins from five, and now a 33–31 opener in Sydney. The only defeats: France, New Zealand and South Africa — the three sides ranked above them.
Ireland lose only to the world's top three, and they win almost everything else, usually well. Depth is the one live question on this tour — Farrell has rested a swathe of frontliners and handed four players their debuts against Japan — but the Irish system is built precisely so the second string doesn't drop far below the first. Even this rotated XV would beat most Test nations.
Japan XV
Jones makes a single change to the side that beat Italy: Taira Main comes onto the left wing for Kippei Ishida. Meiji University student Ryunosuke Ito, who impressed on debut in Tokyo, keeps the No. 10 jersey alongside Toulouse's Naoto Saito, and Warner Dearns again captains from lock. The bigger news is on the touchline — Jones is back from a four-match ban imposed by the JRFU for abusing match officials on this year's Australia tour. Veteran Michael Leitch anchors a bench stacked with young props.
Ireland XV
Farrell makes nine changes and bloods four new caps. Sean Jansen starts on debut in the back row, with Connacht team-mates Billy Bohan and Sam Illo plus Ulster's Bryn Ward set for first caps off the bench. Tadhg Beirne captains Ireland for the first time from the start, Rónan Kelleher wins his 50th cap at hooker, and Ciarán Frawley takes the No. 10 jersey with Sam Prendergast rested ahead of Auckland. Robbie Henshaw, Stuart McCloskey and Bundee Aki bring the midfield ballast; this is a rotated but still formidable 23.
Key Matchups
The decisive zone is the tight five, where Beirne, Ryan, Kelleher and a seasoned Irish front row should out-muscle a lighter Japanese pack — Jones has already promised to 'dominate the Irish scrum in the second half', a challenge Ireland will relish answering. Japan's route back is the same one that undid Italy: quick ruck ball, Ito and Saito playing at pace, and dragging a jet-lagged, heavily changed Ireland into a track meet before their bench debutants settle. Ireland's edge is control and know-how — Casey and Frawley steering territory, Henshaw and Aki punching holes — and a rotated XV of this quality still comfortably out-guns Japan across the spine. If the Brave Blossoms can keep it loose and fast for an hour, the back three battle stays live; if Ireland make it a set-piece grind, the gap tells.
Match Forecast
Ireland should win this, and win it clearly. The scorecard lands at net -10 — a clear-favourite margin anchored by a 7–1 head-to-head, five straight wins, and a set-piece and backline edge that a rotated XV still comfortably preserves. Even shorn of Sam Prendergast and a raft of frontliners, Beirne, Ryan, Kelleher, Conan, Henshaw and Aki form a spine most Test nations would take. The last time these teams met, Ireland put 41 on Japan in Dublin; the Newcastle staging strips away the one variable — Tokyo heat — that might have levelled it.
But the upset ingredients are on the table. Japan arrive high on a 27–10 dismantling of Italy, with Eddie Jones back on the touchline and a young side that has finally learned to last eighty minutes. Ireland, by contrast, have made nine changes with four debutants and are visibly building toward New Zealand next week — and they needed the final play to see off a modest Australia in Sydney. If Japan get quick ball to Ito and Saito and keep the game loose and fast, they can hang around and chase a bonus point. Sustaining it for eighty against Irish game-management is the ask that has beaten them every time bar Shizuoka.
Ireland by two-plus scores — Japan's tempo and confidence keep it live for an hour before the rotated visitors' class and set piece pull clear.
Japan's 'home' game is staged 8,000km away at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle — in Australian mid-winter, with Ireland already acclimatised from their Round 1 win in Sydney.
Andy Farrell makes nine changes and hands out four new caps, resting a swathe of frontliners with next week's Test against New Zealand in Auckland in mind.
Ireland have won seven of the eight meetings — the only defeat Japan's famous 19–12 ambush at the 2019 World Cup in Shizuoka, since avenged four times over.
Tadhg Beirne captains Ireland for the first time from the start, while Rónan Kelleher wins his 50th cap at hooker.
The last meeting was a rout in Dublin last November; across their last four Tests Ireland have averaged 44 points to Japan's 14.
Eddie Jones is back on the Japan touchline after a four-match ban from the JRFU for abusing match officials on this year's Australia tour.