Nations Championship · Round 3
Japan
France
Japan National Stadium, Tokyo
Championship Standings
Two rounds into the inaugural World Rugby Nations Championship and the picture is hardening. In the Rest of World group, South Africa and New Zealand have pulled clear on 10 points apiece, with Japan sitting fourth after a 1-1 split — a 27–10 win over Italy followed by a 20–36 loss to Ireland at Newcastle. In Europe, Ireland lead on a maximum 10, with France second on 7 after banking two bonus points in a 32–34 opening loss to New Zealand and then dismantling Australia 42–21. The competition is two groups of six playing a full cross-group round-robin — four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four tries and for losing by seven or fewer — with the group standings seeding a Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. The tables below are seeded on points then points difference after Round 2.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | +38 | 10 |
| 2 |  New Zealand | 2 | 2 | 0 | +32 | 10 |
| 3 |  Argentina | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Australia | 2 | 0 | 2 | -23 | 2 |
| 6 |  Fiji | 2 | 0 | 2 | -80 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 |  Ireland | 2 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 2 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 2 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 |  England | 2 | 1 | 1 | +41 | 5 |
| 5 |  Wales | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Italy | 2 | 0 | 2 | -47 | 0 |
Japan
W2, L3Eddie Jones's Brave Blossoms are exactly what the record says — capable of a tidy 27–10 dismantling of Italy one week, and a 16-point beating by Ireland the next. The pattern across the past year is that Japan can live with anyone for an hour before the bench and the collision count catch up: they lost by a single point to Wales in Cardiff and edged Georgia by two, then shipped 41 in Dublin and 61 to South Africa. Their game is built on tempo, width and offloads — get the ball moving and Japan are a genuine handful, especially at home. Slow it into a forward arm-wrestle and they wilt, which is precisely the fight France will try to pick.
France
W3, L2France arrive in good rhythm despite a heavily rotated touring squad — no Antoine Dupont (calf) and no Thomas Ramos, rested after a long season. A two-point loss to New Zealand that yielded two bonus points was followed by a controlled 42–21 win over Australia in Newcastle, and the wider body of work is a strong 2026 Six Nations campaign built around the Lucu–Ntamack–Jalibert axis. The recurring theme is that France score in bunches — 48 on England, 50 conceded to Scotland notwithstanding — and carry ferocious ball-carrying weight up front. Even a second-string Les Bleus outfit is deep enough to overpower most sides; the question is whether Tokyo's heat blunts them.
Head-to-Head Record
0 – 1 – 6
Japan wins · Draws · France wins (seven all-time meetings)
Japan (0)Japan have never beaten France. In seven Test meetings the Brave Blossoms have managed a single result — a 23–23 draw in Nantes in 2017 — and lost the other six, several of them heavily. The most recent meeting was a 52–12 rout in Paris in November 2024, and France completed a two-Test sweep on Japanese soil in the summer of 2022 (42–23 and 20–15). The margin has tightened when France tour with a developmental group, but even then Les Bleus have found the answers late. Japan's best hope historically has been to keep it loose and hope France's discipline slips — the 2017 draw came in exactly that kind of open, error-strewn contest.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | Autumn Test | France 52–12 Japan |
| Nov 2022 | Autumn Test | France 35–17 Japan |
| Jul 2022 | Summer Tour | Japan 15–20 France |
| Jul 2022 | Summer Tour | Japan 23–42 France |
| Nov 2017 | Autumn Test | France 23–23 Japan |
| Sep 2011 | Rugby World Cup | France 47–21 Japan |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the seven meetings France average roughly 39 points to Japan's 20 — a 19-point mean margin. The 2022 tour, when France brought a shadow squad, is the closest Japan have come to a win in the modern era, losing the first Test by just five.
Extended Form
Japan6W, 7L (last 12 months)
Wins over Italy (27–10), Georgia (25–23), Tonga (62–24), USA (47–21), Canada (57–15) and Wales (24–19). Losses to Ireland (twice, 36–20 and 41–10), Wales (22–31 and 24–23), South Africa (61–7), Australia (19–15) and Fiji (33–27).
Japan's ledger is the classic tier-two profile: they bully the sides below them and cling on gamely against the tier-one nations before fading. The 61–7 loss to the Springboks and the 41–10 in Dublin show the ceiling of the gap on a bad day; the one-point loss to Wales and two-point win over Georgia show they are rarely far away when the game stays open. Home advantage and a fast track are worth real points to this side.
France8W, 5L (last 12 months)
Wins over Australia (twice, 42–21 and 48–33), England (48–46), Italy (33–8), Wales (54–12), Ireland (36–14) and Fiji (34–21). Losses to New Zealand (three times on the 2025 summer tour with a development squad, plus 32–34 in Round 1) and Scotland (40–50) and South Africa (17–32).
France's 2026 has been high-scoring and largely successful — a strong Six Nations and a Nations Championship start of a narrow, bonus-laden loss to New Zealand and a comfortable win over Australia. The only heavy defeats came against the very top sides or with a heavily rotated group. Against everyone outside the top three, France have been ruthless — which is exactly the bracket this Japan side falls into on paper.
Japan XV
Eddie Jones makes six changes to the side beaten by Ireland, most of them up front, with a completely new front row of Sojiro Otsuka, Hayate Era and Keijiro Tamefusa. The headline is a Test debut for 27-year-old flanker Esei Haangana at blindside, with fellow debutants Izi Sword and Shunsuke Uenobo named among the replacements. Warner Dearns captains from lock alongside Harry Hockings, and the back row of Haangana, Ben Gunter and Jack Cornelsen is built for the 'forward battle' Jones has promised. Behind, Naoto Saito and Ryunosuke Ito steer a strike backline featuring Dylan Riley and Samisoni Tua in midfield.
France XV
Fabien Galthié makes four changes, all in the pack, and hands the captaincy to scrum-half Maxime Lucu in the continued absence of Antoine Dupont. The entire front row is fresh — Jefferson Poirot, Maxime Lamothe and Régis Montagne — with Peato Mauvaka dropping to a strong bench. Top 14 champion Alexandre Roumat comes in at No. 8 behind the enormous second-row pairing of Florian Verhaeghe and Emmanuel Meafou, while the exciting playmaking axis of Lucu, Romain Ntamack and Matthieu Jalibert (fit after a fitness scare) is kept intact, Jalibert operating from fullback. It remains a rotated touring group — no Dupont, no Ramos — but one stacked with power and Test-hardened quality.
Key Matchups
The contest France want is the one they should win — a set-piece and collision battle where Meafou, Verhaeghe and a fresh front row grind Japan's brand-new front three, one of them on debut. Warner Dearns and Harry Hockings are a genuinely tall, athletic Japanese lock pairing, but the raw weight of the French pack is a level up, and Roumat gives them a lineout and carrying edge at the base. Japan's whole route to an upset runs through tempo: quick ruck ball for Saito and Ito, width to Riley and the back three, and the sapping effect of 30-degree heat and humidity on a heavy French forward pack late. If the Brave Blossoms can turn this into a track meet, they have the finishers to trouble anyone; if France slow it down and squeeze the scrum, the gap in power tells.
Match Forecast
France should win this, and the scorecard agrees — a net of −13 from Japan's perspective, driven by a set-piece mismatch (−3), a head-to-head record that reads 0-1-6 in France's favour (−4), and squad depth that survives heavy rotation (−3). Even without Dupont and Ramos, Les Bleus roll out Meafou, Ntamack, Jalibert and a Top 14-winning No. 8 in Roumat, and their 42–21 dismantling of Australia showed a touring group that has clicked. The World Rugby model is even more emphatic, rating France around 86% off an 11-point ranking gap; splitting the difference with a scorecard that always underweights favourites lands at roughly France 74%.
The caveat is Tokyo. This is a real home Test for Japan — not a neutral Australian ground like their Ireland game — in 30-degree heat, high humidity and forecast rain, exactly the sapping conditions that can drag a heavy French pack into the closing stages on level terms. Eddie Jones will chase tempo, width and offloads, and Japan have the finishers in Riley and the back three to punish any French lapse; the 2022 tour, when a shadow France side won the first Test by five, is the template Japan will cling to. But Japan have never beaten France, their front row is brand new with a debutant at six, and if Les Bleus impose the scrum and slow the game the power gap decides it. Expect Japan to score and to stay in touch for an hour — then France to pull clear.
France by two scores in the Tokyo heat — Japan's tempo keeps it live to the hour, but the French pack and an 0-1-6 record tell late.
Japan have never beaten France — 0 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats in seven all-time Test meetings, the only non-loss a 23–23 draw in 2017.
The most recent meeting, in Paris in November 2024, ended 52–12 to France; Les Bleus also swept both Tests on Japanese soil in 2022.
Eddie Jones names a completely new starting front row — Otsuka, Era and Tamefusa — and hands flanker Esei Haangana a Test debut at 27.
France tour without Antoine Dupont (calf) and Thomas Ramos (rested); Maxime Lucu captains and Jalibert starts at fullback.
Kick-off at Tokyo's National Stadium comes in around 30-degree heat with high humidity and rain forecast — conditions built for Japan's tempo game.
France sit 4th in the World Rugby rankings, Japan 11th — an 11-point gap that the ranking model turns into roughly an 86% French win probability.