Nations Championship · Round 3
Australia
Italy
HBF Park, Perth
Championship Standings
Two rounds into the inaugural World Rugby Nations Championship, this is a meeting of the two most miserable sides in the tournament — Australia rooted near the foot of the Rest of World group and Italy dead last in Europe, both winless. The competition is two groups of six playing a full cross-group round-robin — four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four tries and for losing by seven or fewer — with the group standings seeding a Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. Australia have banked two points from a pair of home defeats (31–33 to Ireland, 26–42 to France) while Italy sit on zero after losing 10–27 to Japan and 17–47 to New Zealand. The tables below are seeded on points then points difference after Round 2 — and for both of these sides, Round 3 in Perth is about salvaging pride and a first win.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | ||||||
| 1 |  South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | +38 | 10 |
| 2 |  New Zealand | 2 | 2 | 0 | +32 | 10 |
| 3 |  Argentina | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 |  Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Australia | 2 | 0 | 2 | -23 | 2 |
| 6 |  Fiji | 2 | 0 | 2 | -80 | 0 |
| Europe | ||||||
| 1 |  Ireland | 2 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 10 |
| 2 |  France | 2 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 2 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 |  England | 2 | 1 | 1 | +41 | 5 |
| 5 |  Wales | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Italy | 2 | 0 | 2 | -47 | 0 |
Australia
W1, L4The Wallabies are in a genuine rut. They ran Ireland to two points in Round 1 — a spirited 31–33 that earned a losing bonus — but then shipped 42 to France a week later, and the deeper pattern is grim: this is one win in their last five and part of a wider slide that has swept in defeats to England, Ireland, France and, tellingly, Italy across the November window. There is talent here — Suaalii, Wilson, Valetini, a dangerous back three — but the defence has leaked 162 points across these five games and the side hasn't strung together 80 competitive minutes in months. Home advantage in Perth is about the only thing trending their way.
Italy
W2, L3Italy's 2026 has two very different chapters. In the Six Nations they beat Scotland (18–15) and England (23–18) in Rome — real, front-foot wins that had people talking up the Azzurri again. But away from home they crumble: thumped by Wales, then a limp Nations Championship in the southern hemisphere where they managed just 27 points across losses to Japan (10–27) and New Zealand (17–47). This is a squad that also arrives depleted — Menoncello, Capuozzo, Nicotera, Allan and both Cannones are all absent — on the wrong end of a long-haul trip to Perth. The form line is falling, and the away record is the worry.
Head-to-Head Record
6 – 0 – 2
Australia wins · Draws · Italy wins (last eight meetings)
Australia (6)Historically this is Australian territory — six wins in the last eight, including a 32–6 World Cup stroll in 2011 and a 50–20 romp in 2013. But the headline that matters is the recent one: Italy have won the last two meetings, 28–27 in Florence in 2022 and 26–19 in Udine last November. The Azzurri have found a way to unsettle this Wallabies group specifically, twice, and both were at home. Australia have never lost to Italy on Australian soil — and after back-to-back defeats in the fixture, ending that mini-hoodoo in front of a Perth crowd is as much about the psychology as the standings.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Autumn Test | Italy 26–19 Australia |
| Nov 2022 | Autumn Test | Italy 28–27 Australia |
| Nov 2018 | Autumn Test | Italy 7–26 Australia |
| Jun 2017 | Summer Test | Australia 40–27 Italy |
| Nov 2013 | Autumn Test | Italy 20–50 Australia |
| Sep 2011 | Rugby World Cup | Australia 32–6 Italy |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the last eight meetings Australia have won by an average of around 13 points, but the two most recent results have flipped the momentum — Italy edging both by single-digit margins. Every Italian win in the series has come in Italy; the Wallabies remain unbeaten at home in the fixture.
Extended Form
Australia5W, 11L (last 12 months)
Wins over Fiji (21–18), the British & Irish Lions (22–12 in the dead third Test), South Africa away (38–22), Argentina (28–24) and Japan (19–15). Losses have piled up: two of three to the Lions, home-and-away defeats to New Zealand and South Africa in the Rugby Championship, a November clean sweep of losses to England, Italy, Ireland and France, and now Ireland and France again to open the Nations Championship.
Sixteen Tests, five wins — the Wallabies have been comprehensively beaten far more often than not over the past year. The rare highs (that Perth win over South Africa, the Lions consolation) show the ceiling; the lows show a side that concedes in bunches and folds when a game gets away from it. Perth is a chance to arrest the slide against the one opponent below them in the pecking order.
Italy5W, 7L (last 12 months)
Wins over Namibia (73–6), Chile (34–19), Australia (26–19), Scotland (18–15) and England (23–18). Losses to South Africa twice (42–24, 45–0), Ireland (20–13), France (33–8), Wales (31–17), Japan (27–10) and New Zealand (17–47).
Italy's best is genuinely good — they beat Australia, Scotland and England inside this window — but the floor is alarming, a 45–0 shut-out by the Boks and a 47–17 hiding by the All Blacks among the lowlights. The through-line: they are competitive at home in Europe and brittle on the road, especially against pace. A trans-hemisphere trip with a heavily rotated, injury-hit squad is exactly the setting where the floor tends to show.
Australia XV
Australia name a strong side for a must-not-lose home Test, with Harry Wilson leading from No. 8 and the back row of Rob Valetini and Carlo Tizzano built for breakdown ferocity. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and Len Ikitau form the midfield with Max Jorgensen, Harry Potter and Tom Wright a quick, dangerous back three. The eye-catcher is Declan Meredith at fly-half with Ryan Lonergan inside him; Ben Donaldson and Tate McDermott provide the half-back cover on a bench that carries plenty of experience in Slipper and McReight.
Italy XV
Italy make nine changes to the side hammered by New Zealand and travel without a raft of frontline names — Tommaso Menoncello, Ange Capuozzo and Giacomo Nicotera aren't on the trip after long club seasons in France, while Tommaso Allan and Lorenzo Cannone are injured and Niccolò Cannone is suspended. Michele Lamaro captains from openside, with the Garbisi brothers, Alessandro and Paolo, running the show at half-back. Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane provide the strike out wide, Juan Ignacio Brex and Paolo Odogwu pair up in midfield, and Ross Vintcent anchors the back row at No. 8. It's a patched-together, under-strength Azzurri.
Key Matchups
Italy's set piece — a traditional Azzurri strength, with Riccioni and Ruzza anchoring — is where they can drag this into a slog and keep the scoreboard tight, and Paolo Garbisi is a smarter, more assured 10 than the untested Meredith. But Australia hold the edge nearly everywhere else. The Wallaby back row of Valetini, Tizzano and Wilson should win the collision and breakdown battle against a rejigged Italian unit, and out wide Suaalii, Jorgensen and Wright carry more finishing threat than a depleted Italy can match. The Azzurri's route to a third straight win in the fixture runs through the Garbisis controlling territory and Lamaro slowing Australian ball — but if the game opens up and becomes a track meet, Italy's thin, jet-lagged squad is the one likelier to break.
Match Forecast
Australia should win this — but nobody should be comfortable saying it too loudly. The scorecard nets to +9, driven by home advantage in Perth against a jet-lagged, heavily depleted Italy (+3), a clear superiority out wide with Suaalii, Ikitau and a quick back three (+2), and a squad-strength gap widened by Italy's raft of absentees (+2). The World Rugby ratings agree, giving the eighth-ranked Wallabies roughly a 77% edge over tenth-ranked Italy. Between two winless sides, the more talented one is at home with more to work with.
The caveat is written in recent history: Italy have beaten this Australian group in each of their last two meetings, and the Azzurri set piece is the kind of platform that can strangle a fragile Wallaby side if Perth gets tense. Australia's defence has leaked 162 points in five games and their form is genuinely poor — a slow start invites exactly the kind of arm-wrestle Italy want, with Paolo Garbisi kicking the corners. But Italy's road record and the sheer depletion of their travelling squad should tell over 80 minutes. Expect Australia to pull clear in the final quarter rather than run away early.
Wallabies to finally end the Italian hoodoo — by around two scores, but only after a nervy, forward-heavy first hour.
Italy have won the last two meetings — 26–19 in Udine last November and 28–27 in Florence in 2022 — both at home.
Australia have never lost to Italy on Australian soil; every Italian win in the series has come in Italy.
Neither side has won a Nations Championship game — Australia sit fifth in the Rest of World group on 2 points, Italy dead last in Europe on 0.
Italy make nine changes from the New Zealand loss and travel without Menoncello, Capuozzo, Nicotera, Allan and both Cannone brothers.
Italy have scored just 85 points across their last four away Tests, managing only 27 in two Nations Championship defeats to Japan and New Zealand.
Australia have won just one of their last five Tests, their solitary victory a 19–15 win over Japan last October.