South Africa
New Zealand
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (neutral venue)
Championship Standings
South Africa lead the four-Test series 2–1 after wins of 33–26 and 29–24 followed their 16–33 opening defeat. A win seals the series; New Zealand need victory to finish level at 2–2. Baltimore is neutral territory and there is no league table.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
South Africa
W4, L1South Africa have won four of their latest five Tests, scoring 138 and conceding 93. The two latest wins came against New Zealand by seven and five points; the 43–0 over Wales is less informative for this opponent. Those narrow margins support a measured advantage rather than an automatic runaway win. The Barbarians fixture is excluded.
New Zealand
W3, L2New Zealand are 3–2 across their latest five Tests, with 170 scored and 116 conceded. Wins over Ireland and Italy precede the current series’ win-loss-loss sequence. The four provincial tour victories are excluded because they are not Tests. Losing twice by a combined twelve points leaves a credible route to a drawn series.
Head-to-Head Record
4 – 0 – 2
South Africa wins · Draws · New Zealand wins (last 6 Tests, all venues; 2024-09-07–2026-09-05)
South Africa (4)
South Africa lead the latest six Tests 4–2, spanning September 2024 to September 2026 across all venues. The three current-series games produced an 83–78 aggregate in New Zealand’s favour despite South Africa’s 2–1 lead. This is a recent sample, not an all-time or neutral-venue record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Test | South Africa 29–24 New Zealand |
| 2026-08-29 | Test | South Africa 33–26 New Zealand |
| 2026-08-22 | Test | South Africa 16–33 New Zealand |
| 2025-09-13 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 10–43 South Africa |
| 2025-09-06 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 24–17 South Africa |
| 2024-09-07 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 18–12 New Zealand |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: South Africa 26.0 – New Zealand 21.5 across these six meetings.
Extended Form
South AfricaW14, L1
10 September 2025–10 September 2026, before the evidence cutoff; 15 Tests, 586 scored and 260 conceded.
Fourteen wins in fifteen Tests in this date window show sustained performance beyond the current series. The sample includes the 43–10 away win over New Zealand in September 2025 and away wins over France and Ireland that November. Moving the cutoff past 6 September 2025 excludes the earlier defeat at Eden Park; it is a date-window effect, not an erased result.
New ZealandW9, L4
10 September 2025–10 September 2026, before the evidence cutoff; 13 Tests, 397 scored and 318 conceded.
Nine wins and four losses in thirteen Tests across the same date window. Defeats came against South Africa three times and England once; their recent Ireland win still demonstrates the ability to beat a strong opponent. Domestic tour games and sevens are excluded.
South Africa XV
Confirmed 7 September announcement, cross-checked with RugbyPass’s full 23. Willemse replaces injured Kolbe at fullback; Van den Berg starts at scrumhalf and Reinach moves to the bench. The starting pack is retained.
New Zealand XV
Match-day 23 unverified as of 2026-09-10T06:27:56.012Z. Checked allblacks.com’s latest news and Baltimore travelling-squad announcement, plus focused searches for the 12 September Test selection. The official 36-man squad confirms Savea, Jacobson and Tupaea are injured and unavailable; it is not a starting XV.
Key Matchups
The front-row edge is a provisional team-level judgment: the official third-Test review describes Springbok scrum and maul pressure in the decisive second-half passages, and their starting pack is retained. It is not an invented efficiency statistic or a confirmed comparison with New Zealand’s final pack. The back-row availability gap also favours South Africa. New Zealand’s best route is to keep possession moving before those pressure points accumulate; the unverified backline matchups remain ungraded.
Match Forecast
South Africa by seven. A +5 scorecard rests on modest form and historical edges, confirmed availability differences and the set-piece pressure demonstrated in the third Test. The house probability is 74.38%; the neutral-venue rankings anchor is 62.46%, using World Rugby ratings effective 7 September. Their prescribed average is 68.42%, displayed as 68%, with a raw margin of 7.25 points.
This remains provisional until New Zealand’s match-day 23 is verified. Baltimore earns no home-advantage points and the rankings anchor removes its home bonus, but the legacy house formula still contains a home intercept; it has not been validated for neutral venues. The 2–12-point band is an editorial range, not a confidence interval, and the two-way model has no separate draw probability. New Zealand’s opening 33–16 win is sufficient warning against treating the series lead as a foregone conclusion.
South Africa by seven in Baltimore — a moderate favourite, pending the All Blacks’ final selection.
South Africa lead the series with one Test remaining.
World Rugby points effective 7 September 2026; full precision is preserved in the evidence packet.
Official All Blacks schedule: 09:00 NZST on Sunday 13 September, equivalent to 17:00 EDT on Saturday in Baltimore. The conflicting Flashscore kickoff is not used.