South Africa
New Zealand
FNB Stadium, Soweto
Championship Standings
The four-Test series is level at 1–1: New Zealand won 33–16 on 22 August, South Africa replied 33–26 a week later. FNB Stadium hosts the third Test; both sides still have a series to win. There is no league table for this fixture.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
South Africa
W4, L1Four wins from the last five Tests, with 151 points scored and 97 conceded. The 33–26 response to New Zealand matters more than the 43–0 against Wales: South Africa have demonstrated that they can beat this opponent, but the preceding 16–33 defeat prevents a dominant form rating. The Barbarians match is excluded from this Test sample.
New Zealand
W4, L1New Zealand also have four wins from five Tests, scoring 180 points and conceding 119. Their July wins over Ireland, Italy and France belong in this comparison; the four tour games against South African domestic sides do not. A win and a loss against the Springboks leave the recent form dimension level.
Head-to-Head Record
4 – 0 – 2
South Africa wins · Draws · New Zealand wins (last 6 Tests, all venues)
South Africa (4)
South Africa lead the last six Tests 4–2, covering August 2024 to August 2026 across all venues. The two current-series results split evenly, and New Zealand won in South Africa just two weeks ago. That earns the hosts only a small historical edge, not a claim that this venue settles the contest.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Test | South Africa 33–26 New Zealand |
| 2026-08-22 | Test | South Africa 16–33 New Zealand |
| 2025-09-13 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 10–43 South Africa |
| 2025-09-06 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 24–17 South Africa |
| 2024-09-07 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 18–12 New Zealand |
| 2024-08-31 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 31–27 New Zealand |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: South Africa 26.3 – New Zealand 22.0 across these 6 meetings.
Extended Form
South AfricaW13, L2
5 September 2025–4 September 2026; Tests only, 15 matches, 574 scored and 260 conceded.
South Africa are 13–2 in this 15-Test window. It includes the 43–10 win in New Zealand in September 2025 and November away wins over France and Ireland, giving the record more substance than a run built solely against weaker opponents. Both defeats were against the All Blacks.
New ZealandW10, L3
5 September 2025–4 September 2026; Tests only, 13 matches, 397 scored and 306 conceded.
New Zealand are 10–3 across 13 Tests in the same window. The defeats were against South Africa twice and England once, while wins over Ireland and South Africa show the ceiling remains high. Domestic tour fixtures are excluded rather than treated as equivalent Tests.
South Africa XV
The Springboks announcement dated 31 August names Nché, Marx and Louw in the starting front row. Kolbe moves to fullback with Willemse unavailable through a hamstring injury, and Arendse starts on the right wing. Kolisi captains a pack supported by Fourie, Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit and De Jager on the bench.
New Zealand XV
The All Blacks announcement dated 3 September starts Aumua at hooker, Darry at lock and Lakai at blindside. Holland and Sititi are among the replacements, while the starting backline is retained. Vaa’i is named for his 50th Test; the reshuffle is confirmed, but its effect on lineout performance remains a judgment.
Key Matchups
The Springbok front row and lock combination provide the clearest route to sustained pressure; the edge is a selection assessment, not a verified scrum or lineout percentage. New Zealand can reverse that pressure if Roigard gets quick ball and Jordan and McKenzie find space behind the chase. Kolbe at fullback changes the coverage responsibilities, so South Africa need their kick chase connected. Neither side needs a speculative altitude or fatigue bonus to make its case.
Match Forecast
South Africa by seven. The +5 scorecard is driven by the home venue and the selected tight five, with neither side receiving a form advantage after identical 4–1 Test records. The house probability is 74.4%; the pre-match World Rugby ratings anchor is 65.4%, giving a blended 69.9%, displayed as 70%.
This is a moderate favourite, not a forecast of forward domination from the first scrum. New Zealand won 33–16 in South Africa two weeks ago and retain the backline that threatens any loose kick chase. The margin calculation is 7.25 points, rounded to seven; the 2–12-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
South Africa by seven, with the tight five carrying a narrow series advantage into Soweto.
The current series is level after South Africa lost 16–33 and then won 33–26.
Both sides have four wins in their latest five Tests; domestic tour matches are excluded.
South Africa’s Test record from 5 September 2025 through the evidence cutoff.
World Rugby rating points for South Africa and New Zealand, effective 31 August 2026.
Both 23-player squads were checked against dated team announcements; late changes remain possible.