South Africa
New Zealand
DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Championship Standings
This is a four-Test series, not a league — the first full bilateral series between these two in three decades, played for a series trophy with no bonus points and no table. New Zealand drew first blood 33–16 at Ellis Park, snapping a 12-Test Springbok winning run, and lead 1–0. Lose here and South Africa are 0–2 with two to play — the series would be as good as gone before Soweto and Baltimore. Win and it is 1–1 with the FNB Stadium Test the following Saturday effectively a decider for the momentum of the tour. The All Blacks have also won all four midweek games — Stormers 38–21, Sharks 54–0, Bulls 50–19 and Lions 41–35 — so they arrive in Cape Town five from five on South African soil.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 1 |
| 2 |  South Africa | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 0 |
South Africa
W4, L1A week ago the Springboks were on a 12-Test winning streak stretching back to the 43–10 demolition of these All Blacks in Wellington. Then Ellis Park happened: 13–12 up at the break, 16–12 up before the hour, and then a Fabian Holland charge-down on Grant Williams, two yellow cards inside a minute, 13 men on the field and five tries to one by the finish. Erasmus has owned the tactical mess — 11 entries into the New Zealand 22 produced a single try, and he admitted 'I personally made some wrong calls' about what to try in there. The underlying engine is still monstrous — 163 points to 92 across the last five, a 43–0 whitewash of Wales — but for the first time in a year this is a Springbok side that has something to prove rather than something to defend.
New Zealand
W5Dave Rennie's first tour as All Blacks coach could scarcely have gone better: five wins from five in South Africa, the four franchises put away by a combined 183–75, and then the big one — a 33–16 win at Ellis Park that turned a 13–12 half-time deficit into a five-try rout. Add the 3–0 Nations Championship sweep of France, Italy and Ireland in July and this is an eight-match winning run. The one wobble is the 41–35 midweek scrap with the Lions three days ago, where the dirt-trackers leaked five tries — but that is precisely the point of a shadow XV, and none of Saturday's starters were involved. The scrum that creaked for 55 minutes at Ellis Park and then 'came good', as Rennie put it, is the thing to watch.
Head-to-Head Record
6 – 0 – 4
South Africa wins · Draws · New Zealand wins (last ten meetings)
South Africa (6)New Zealand lead the all-time ledger comfortably — 64 wins to 43 with four draws by SA Rugby Stats' count — but the modern era belongs to the Boks: six of the last ten, including the 2023 World Cup final and a record 43–10 in Wellington last September. That said, the All Blacks have won the last two at Ellis Park and three of the last six on South African soil, and Cape Town has historically been kind to them — seven wins from ten at Newlands, including the last two visits there in 2008 and 2017. The one meeting at DHL Stadium went the other way, though: 18–12 to South Africa in September 2024, when second-half tries sealed the Freedom Cup. Last Saturday's 33–16 was New Zealand's biggest win in this fixture since the 57–0 of 2017.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | Greatest Rivalry T1 | South Africa 16–33 New Zealand |
| Sep 2025 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 10–43 South Africa |
| Sep 2025 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 24–17 South Africa |
| Sep 2024 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 18–12 New Zealand |
| Aug 2024 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 31–27 New Zealand |
| Oct 2023 | World Cup Final | New Zealand 11–12 South Africa |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Across the last six meetings the average scoreline is South Africa 23 – New Zealand 20, but the mean hides the shape: three of the six were decided by six points or fewer, and the other three were blowouts (43–10, 33–16) or near enough. This fixture either goes to the wire or goes badly wrong for someone.
Extended Form
South Africa12W, 2L (Tests, last 12 months)
Wins over New Zealand (43–10 in Wellington), Argentina three times (67–30, 29–27, 17–10), Japan (61–7), France (32–17), Italy (32–14), Ireland (24–13), Wales twice (73–0 and 43–0), England (45–21) and Scotland (42–28), plus an 80–31 Barbarians run-out. Both defeats were to New Zealand — 24–17 at Eden Park last September and 33–16 at Ellis Park last week.
Twelve wins in fourteen, a Rugby Championship, a Grand Slam November and a perfect Nations Championship pool campaign — this is still the most complete side in the world. But the pattern in the two losses is identical and awkward: both against the All Blacks, both games where the Boks led into the second half and were out-thought when it got loose. Erasmus is fielding near enough his best XV — close to 950 combined caps — which tells you how seriously he is taking a 0–2 scenario.
New Zealand10W, 2L (Tests, last 12 months) + 4 tour wins
Wins over South Africa (24–17 in Auckland and 33–16 at Ellis Park), Australia twice (33–24, 28–14), Ireland twice (26–13, 40–21), Scotland (25–17), Wales (52–26), France (34–32) and Italy (47–17), plus tour wins over the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls and Lions. Losses: 43–10 to South Africa in Wellington and 33–19 to England at Twickenham.
Ten Test wins from twelve and an eight-match unbeaten run — under Rennie the All Blacks have added defensive resolve to the old ability to conjure something from nothing, and Ellis Park was the proof: they absorbed 55 minutes of Bok pressure and scored 21 unanswered. The two losses are instructive though: both were to sides who bullied them at the set piece and kicked well. That is exactly the recipe Erasmus will reach for in the rain.
South Africa XV
Three changes from Ellis Park, none of them minor. Siya Kolisi passed a fitness test on his hamstring, starts at blindside and takes back the captaincy — Rassie Erasmus reversed his earlier call so Pieter-Steph du Toit can 'concentrate on his landmark' 100th Test, the 11th Springbok to reach it. Cobus Reinach replaces Grant Williams at scrum-half, Ethan Hooker comes onto the left wing, and Cheslin Kolbe was declared fit on the eve of the match to reclaim the right wing from Kurt-Lee Arendse, who drops out of the 23 entirely. The blow is at fly-half: Handré Pollard was named to start but pulled out on Friday with a calf strain, so Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu keeps the 10 jersey and Manie Libbok is recalled to the bench. Ox Nche wins his 50th cap; Thomas du Toit, the surprise omission at Ellis Park, is back on a bench that also carries Deon Fourie, Lood de Jager, André Esterhuizen and Cameron Hanekom.
New Zealand XV
Dave Rennie makes three changes, two of them forced. Loosehead Ethan de Groot is still in HIA protocols and lock Josh Lord is also out — Rennie has said both could be sidelined 'for the foreseeable future' — so George Bower, who helped steady the scrum off the bench at Ellis Park, starts at 1, Tupou Vaa'i shifts from blindside to lock alongside Fabian Holland, and Simon Parker comes in at 6. Leroy Carter and Josh Moorby swap roles, Carter starting on the left wing. Xavier Numia and Patrick Tuipulotu provide the new front-five cover. Ardie Savea captains from No. 8 alongside 110-cap hooker Codie Taylor; the Barrett-Tupaea midfield, Roigard–Love axis and the Jordan–McKenzie back-field that tore the Boks apart in the last half-hour all stay put.
Key Matchups
The scrum is the whole argument. For 55 minutes at Ellis Park the Bok front row milked penalty after penalty — every one of Kolbe's kicks came off a scrum — and it was only when Bower and Newell came on that New Zealand stopped the bleeding. Now Bower starts against Nche and Louw, with a 50-cap Nche and the returning Thomas du Toit waiting behind him, so the Springboks should win that battle from minute one and, on a wet Cape Town evening, that matters more than anything else on the field. The All Blacks' edge is everything beyond the halfway line: Will Jordan scored twice last week and the Jordan–McKenzie–Barrett trio turned every loose Bok kick into a counter, while Roigard's tempo was the difference once the Boks went down to 13. The swing men are the two young 10s — Feinberg-Mngomezulu, now starting only because Pollard's calf gave out, and Ruben Love with nine caps — and whichever of them handles a greasy ball and a hostile scoreboard better probably decides it. Kolisi's return gives the Boks a breakdown presence they visibly lacked at Ellis Park, where Rennie's back row 'contested really well' and the Boks converted 11 red-zone entries into one try.
Match Forecast
The scorecard nets to a modest +6, and the shape of it is the story: the Springboks are ahead on set piece (+3), squad strength (+2) and the venue (+2), and behind on form (−2) and finishing (−1). That is a side that should control territory and the scrum in wet conditions and simply needs to stop giving the game away — the Ellis Park loss was one charged-down box kick and two yellow cards inside a minute, not a structural beating. The World Rugby rankings model makes it 54% for the Boks, the scorecard 76%; averaging lands on 65%, which feels about right for a fixture that has been decided by six points or fewer in three of the last six meetings.
The reasons to doubt it are real. New Zealand have won three of the last six on South African soil, they've already shown they can survive a 55-minute Bok siege, and the last time these sides met at sea level in Cape Town the All Blacks had won seven of ten. Pollard's late withdrawal removes the one player Erasmus specifically picked for wet-weather game management, and Feinberg-Mngomezulu now carries the kicking game against a back three — Jordan, McKenzie, Barrett — that punishes every loose one. If the Boks lose the discipline battle again or go to a 13-man scrum penalty-fest in their own half, the All Blacks close the series out. But a Kolisi-led pack at full strength, in the rain, with a sold-out crowd and a series on the line, should squeeze this one out by a score.
Springboks by seven in a wet, ugly arm-wrestle — the scrum keeps the series alive, but Will Jordan will make them sweat for it.
Ellis Park ended a 12-Test Springbok winning streak that began with the 43–10 humiliation of New Zealand in Wellington last September — both defeats in the last year have come against the All Blacks.
Pieter-Steph du Toit becomes the 11th Springbok centurion, while Ox Nche wins his 50th cap. Siya Kolisi's return to fitness means du Toit hands the captaincy back to concentrate on the milestone.
South Africa conceded two yellow cards inside a minute — Marco van Staden and Cobus Reinach — and finished the first Test with 13 on the field as New Zealand ran in 21 unanswered points.
The Boks entered the New Zealand 22 eleven times at Ellis Park and scored one try — Erasmus admitted 'some wrong calls' about the attack inside the 22 were on him.
New Zealand have won every game of the tour — Stormers 38–21, Sharks 54–0, Bulls 50–19, South Africa 33–16 and Lions 41–35 — and are eight unbeaten going back to the Nations Championship.
The only previous Bok–All Black Test at DHL Stadium went to South Africa 18–12 in September 2024 — but at old Newlands New Zealand won seven of ten, including their last two Cape Town visits in 2008 and 2017.