New Zealand
Australia
Eden Park, Auckland
Championship Standings
No league table applies to this Test. World Rugby rankings effective 5 October 2026 put New Zealand second on 91.15 and Australia sixth on 85.55; the separate dated anchor is used in the probability blend.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
New Zealand
W2, D0, L3Senior national-team Tests only, across the named competitions: 5 completed matches, 2026-07-18–2026-09-12; 151 points for and 142 against. New Zealand lost the last three South Africa Tests, after winning the first 33–16. The five-Test sample also includes the 40–21 Ireland win; the 41–35 match against Lions is explicitly excluded because it was not a national-team Test.
Australia
W4, D1, L0Senior national-team Tests only, across the named competitions: 5 completed matches, 2026-08-08–2026-09-27; 188 points for and 136 against. Australia are unbeaten in five Tests, with four wins and one draw, most recently 42–38 against South Africa. Two wins came against Japan, so the streak cannot be treated as five victories over top-ranked opposition.
Head-to-head: verified recent sample
6 – 0 – 0
New Zealand wins · Draws · Australia wins; 6 Test meetings, all venues, 2023-07-29–2025-10-04
New Zealand (6)
New Zealand won all six retrieved Tests, including 33–24 at home and 28–14 away last year. Six wins and no draws are a specific recent sample, not the all-time Bledisloe record. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Rugby Championship | Australia 14–28 New Zealand |
| 2025-09-27 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 33–24 Australia |
| 2024-09-28 | Rugby Championship | New Zealand 33–13 Australia |
| 2024-09-21 | Rugby Championship | Australia 28–31 New Zealand |
| 2023-08-05 | Friendly International | New Zealand 23–20 Australia |
| 2023-07-29 | Rugby Championship | Australia 7–38 New Zealand |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean: New Zealand 31.0 – Australia 17.7; fixed team orientation regardless of venue.
Extended Form
New ZealandW7, D0, L4
Retrieved senior national-team Test sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (11 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-09-12 South Africa 43–28 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2026-09-05 South Africa 29–24 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2026-08-29 South Africa 33–26 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2026-08-22 South Africa 16–33 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2026-07-18 New Zealand 40–21 Ireland [Nations Championship]; 2026-07-11 New Zealand 47–17 Italy [Nations Championship]; 2026-07-04 New Zealand 34–32 France [Nations Championship]; 2025-11-22 Wales 26–52 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2025-11-15 England 33–19 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2025-11-08 Scotland 17–25 New Zealand [Friendly International]; 2025-11-01 Ireland 13–26 New Zealand [Friendly International]
The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. New Zealand lost the last three South Africa Tests, after winning the first 33–16. The five-Test sample also includes the 40–21 Ireland win; the 41–35 match against Lions is explicitly excluded because it was not a national-team Test. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.
AustraliaW6, D1, L6
Retrieved senior national-team Test sample within 9 October 2025–2026-10-09 before this match (13 games; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-09-27 Australia 42–38 South Africa [Friendly International]; 2026-09-05 Argentina 28–28 Australia [Friendly International]; 2026-08-29 Argentina 21–27 Australia [Friendly International]; 2026-08-15 Australia 56–17 Japan [Friendly International]; 2026-08-08 Japan 32–35 Australia [Friendly International]; 2026-07-18 Australia 57–10 Italy [Nations Championship]; 2026-07-11 Australia 26–42 France [Nations Championship]; 2026-07-04 Australia 31–33 Ireland [Nations Championship]; 2025-11-22 France 48–33 Australia [Friendly International]; 2025-11-15 Ireland 46–19 Australia [Friendly International]; 2025-11-08 Italy 26–19 Australia [Friendly International]; 2025-11-01 England 25–7 Australia [Friendly International]; 2025-10-25 Japan 15–19 Australia [Friendly International]
The explicitly bounded sample supplies background, not a second score for results already counted under form. Australia are unbeaten in five Tests, with four wins and one draw, most recently 42–38 against South Africa. Two wins came against Japan, so the streak cannot be treated as five victories over top-ranked opposition. Off-season changes and this week’s selection status limit how directly older results transfer.
New Zealand XV
Scott Barrett and Tupaea return; Taylor captains. McKenzie starts at ten with Mo’unga unavailable. Aumua, Frizell and Ioane are among eight replacements. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.allblacks.com, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.
Australia XV
Henry replaces suspended Paisami in the only starting change from the South Africa win. Wilson captains; De Lutiis replaces Tupou on a 5–3 bench, with McDermott and Potter available. Full selected XV and eight replacements verified from www.rugby.com.au, announcement dated 2026-10-08, checked before the 2026-10-09T07:36:12.475Z evidence cutoff.
Key Matchups
Donaldson and Lonergan need to exploit Australia’s recent attacking confidence before New Zealand’s back-three counterattack can dictate the game. Henry’s midfield introduction faces Jordie Barrett and Tupaea; the reserve front rows matter with De Lutiis replacing overseas-based Tupou. Starting-unit edges are qualified selection judgments; they are not retrieved scrum, lineout or player-performance measurements. New Zealand have Aumua, Frizell and Ioane in reserve; Australia answer with McDermott, Potter and a 5–3 bench. De Lutiis is less experienced tighthead cover, but New Zealand’s reserve forward balance also needs care; no blanket depth advantage is awarded.
Match Forecast
New Zealand by 6 is the rounded house-model lean. Six recent Bledisloe wins and the selected Roigard–McKenzie–Barrett/Jordan playmaking group support the home pick, alongside the dated rankings edge. The seven scores total 4, giving a 79% displayed home probability after the dated World Rugby/house blend.
Australia just beat South Africa 42–38 and are unbeaten in five, while New Zealand lost their last three Tests. McKenzie’s first starting appearance of the season at ten and the returnees’ cohesion leave real upset routes. The scoring projection uses a 61.7-point mean from the two dated five-match samples, rounded to 62 for an integer 6-point difference. The 1–11 band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
New Zealand by 6.
New Zealand points for–against across the five listed form games.
Australia points for–against across the five listed form games.
Home-side wins, draws, away-side wins in the 6-meeting scoped sample.
Seven-dimension score from the home perspective before the legacy intercept.