Australia
South Africa
Optus Stadium, Perth
Championship Standings
Standalone Test, with no competition table. World Rugby rankings effective 21 September place Australia seventh (83.55) and South Africa first (95.09); the ratings enter the probability calculation separately.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
Australia
W4, D1, L0Test rugby only: 5 completed matches, 2026-07-18 to 2026-09-05; 203 points for and 108 against. Australia won in Argentina and drew the return 28–28 after victories over Japan and Italy. The unbeaten run is real, but it does not test the same level of forward resistance as South Africa’s recent New Zealand series.
South Africa
W4, D0, L1Test rugby only: 5 completed matches, 2026-08-08 to 2026-09-12; 138 points for and 121 against. South Africa beat New Zealand 43–28 in Baltimore after 29–24 and 33–26 wins, following an opening defeat. That is strong opponent-adjusted form, though 13 starting changes mean it cannot be transferred without qualification.
Head-to-head: retrieved recent sample
1 – 0 – 5
Australia wins · Draws · South Africa wins; 6 senior Tests meetings, all venues, 2022-09-03–2025-08-23
Australia (1)
South Africa won five of the last six meetings in the retrieved all-venue sample. Australia’s 38–22 win in Johannesburg last year remains a serious counterexample; Rugby Australia separately reports the ten Perth Tests as four wins each and two draws. This is the retrieved recent sample, not an all-time record.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 30–22 Australia |
| 2025-08-16 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 22–38 Australia |
| 2024-08-17 | Rugby Championship | Australia 12–30 South Africa |
| 2024-08-10 | Rugby Championship | Australia 7–33 South Africa |
| 2023-07-08 | Rugby Championship | South Africa 43–12 Australia |
| 2022-09-03 | Rugby Championship | Australia 8–24 South Africa |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Sample mean, rounded: Australia 16.5 – South Africa 30.3. Team orientation is fixed regardless of venue.
Extended Form
AustraliaW5, D1, L8
Retrieved Test rugby sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (14 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-09-05 Argentina 28–28 Australia; 2026-08-29 Argentina 21–27 Australia; 2026-08-15 Australia 56–17 Japan; 2026-08-08 Japan 32–35 Australia; 2026-07-18 Australia 57–10 Italy; 2026-07-11 Australia 26–42 France; 2026-07-04 Australia 31–33 Ireland; 2025-11-22 France 48–33 Australia; 2025-11-15 Ireland 46–19 Australia; 2025-11-08 Italy 26–19 Australia; 2025-11-01 England 25–7 Australia; 2025-10-25 Japan 15–19 Australia; 2025-10-04 Australia 14–28 New Zealand; 2025-09-27 New Zealand 33–24 Australia
Only Test rugby results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded except senior capped Tests. Australia won in Argentina and drew the return 28–28 after victories over Japan and Italy. The unbeaten run is real, but it does not test the same level of forward resistance as South Africa’s recent New Zealand series.
South AfricaW15, D0, L1
Retrieved Test rugby sample within 25 September 2025–24 September 2026 (16 matches; not asserted to be a complete season): 2026-09-12 South Africa 43–28 New Zealand; 2026-09-05 South Africa 29–24 New Zealand; 2026-08-29 South Africa 33–26 New Zealand; 2026-08-22 South Africa 16–33 New Zealand; 2026-08-08 Argentina 10–17 South Africa; 2026-07-18 South Africa 43–0 Wales; 2026-07-11 South Africa 42–28 Scotland; 2026-07-04 South Africa 45–21 England; 2026-06-20 South Africa 80–31 Barbarians; 2025-11-29 Wales 0–73 South Africa; 2025-11-22 Ireland 13–24 South Africa; 2025-11-15 Italy 14–32 South Africa; 2025-11-08 France 17–32 South Africa; 2025-11-01 South Africa 61–7 Japan; 2025-10-04 Argentina 27–29 South Africa; 2025-09-27 South Africa 67–30 Argentina
Only Test rugby results are counted in this extended window; other competitions and friendlies are excluded except senior capped Tests. South Africa beat New Zealand 43–28 in Baltimore after 29–24 and 33–26 wins, following an opening defeat. That is strong opponent-adjusted form, though 13 starting changes mean it cannot be transferred without qualification.
Australia XV
Confirmed 25 September at 05:30 UTC. Suaalii starts on the wing, Paisami returns alongside Ikitau, and Paenga-Amosa and Alaalatoa start in the front row. Kiss selects six forwards on the bench; Cale is unavailable with a shoulder injury.
South Africa XV
Confirmed 22 September. Erasmus makes 13 starting changes from Baltimore, with Etzebeth and Hooker retained. Esterhuizen captains; Pollard returns and Marx, Nche and Wilco Louw form the replacement front row.
Key Matchups
Australia’s starting front row can challenge the young Porthen, but the balance changes when Marx, Nche and Wilco Louw arrive. Lonergan and Donaldson need to use that early platform to bring Ikitau and the outside backs into play. South Africa can absorb an early contest and then ask the bench to turn territory into repeat pressure.
Match Forecast
South Africa are the pick through opponent-adjusted form and the quality of their replacement forwards. Australia’s selected back row and starting props make this a proper contest, so the projected margin stays in single figures. The house scorecard and dated World Rugby anchor agree on the away winner.
Rotating 13 starters carries real cohesion risk, and Australia’s Johannesburg win last year cannot be ignored. Suaalii’s first wing start adds a new attacking possibility alongside Jorgensen and Wright. The probability blends two model estimates; it is not a guarantee that the physical edge will appear on schedule. The 21 September ratings are Australia 83.55 and South Africa 95.09. House South Africa 55.7%, ratings South Africa 86.9%; their equal-weight blend gives the displayed 71%. The margin band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
South Africa by 6 — the selected sides and verified results set the case.
Australia points for–against in the 5-match Test rugby form window.
South Africa points for–against in the 5-match Test rugby form window.
Australia wins–draws–South Africa wins in the explicitly scoped H2H sample.
Seven-dimension house score from the home perspective; positive favours the home team before the model intercept.