Argentina
Australia
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
Championship Standings
Australia lead the two-Test series 1–0 after winning 27–21 in Jujuy. Argentina need a win in Mendoza to share it; Australia can finish the sweep. This is a series decider without a league table.
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|
Argentina
W1, L4Argentina have one win from the last five Tests, all played at home, scoring 128 and conceding 143. Each of the four defeats was by six to nine points, so the problem is repeatedly losing competitive games rather than suffering routine blowouts. A home crowd alone has not fixed that pattern.
Australia
W4, L1Australia have won four consecutive Tests and four of the last five, with 201 points scored and 122 conceded. Two wins came against Japan and another against Italy, which tempers the size of the form advantage. The 27–21 win in Argentina is the most relevant result; away scores here follow the displayed home–away order.
Head-to-Head Record
3 – 0 – 3
Argentina wins · Draws · Australia wins (last 6 Tests, all venues)
Argentina (3)
The last six Tests are split 3–3, from July 2023 to August 2026. Argentina’s 67–27 win in 2024 raises their average considerably; removing it leaves Australia ahead 3–2, not 4–1. UAR separately lists four meetings in Mendoza from 2014 to 2022, with Argentina winning one and Australia three; that small older venue sample is context rather than a guarantee.
Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Test | Argentina 21–27 Australia |
| 2025-09-13 | Rugby Championship | Australia 26–28 Argentina |
| 2025-09-06 | Rugby Championship | Australia 28–24 Argentina |
| 2024-09-07 | Rugby Championship | Argentina 67–27 Australia |
| 2024-08-31 | Rugby Championship | Argentina 19–20 Australia |
| 2023-07-15 | Rugby Championship | Australia 31–34 Argentina |
Average score in the last 6 meetings: Argentina 32.2 – Australia 26.5 across these 6 meetings.
Extended Form
ArgentinaW4, L8
5 September 2025–4 September 2026; Tests only, 12 matches, 345 scored and 372 conceded.
Argentina are 4–8 across these 12 Tests. November wins over Wales and Scotland offer evidence of recovery, but the 2026 sequence has returned to narrow defeats. The 30–67 loss in South Africa in September 2025 also belongs in this window and should not disappear from a longer-term assessment.
AustraliaW6, L9
5 September 2025–4 September 2026; Tests only, 15 matches, 421 scored and 428 conceded.
Australia are 6–9 across 15 Tests in the same window. Four straight wins improve the immediate picture, but the earlier losses to France, Ireland, England and New Zealand prevent treating that streak as proof of dominance against leading sides. The recent improvement is real and the opposition mix matters.
Argentina XV
UAR’s 3 September announcement confirms Delgado, Elías, Molina and Roger among the changes. Petti moves into the back row and Carreras starts at fullback, with Matera captaining the side. Cardozo and Soler are named on the bench as potential debutants.
Australia XV
The Wallabies’ 3 September announcement restores captain Wilson, Bell, Tupou, Ikitau and Suaalii to the starting side. Donaldson is named at fly-half, with Gordon on the bench, and Wright is selected for his 50th Test. The announced combination strengthens the case for Australia, but several changes also require coordination.
Key Matchups
Australia’s strongest case is the selected pack and midfield, with Bell and Tupou supporting a back row led by Wilson. Argentina need Matera and Petti to keep the contest manageable while Roger and Carreras establish field position. Ikitau and Suaalii offer the visitors a clear carrying threat, although a new combination is not automatic attacking fluency. Argentina’s bench experience can help keep a close game within one kick.
Match Forecast
Argentina by one, but this is the weekend’s least secure call. The -5 scorecard favours Australia on the underlying dimensions; the legacy probability formula still gives Argentina 55.0%, and the pre-match World Rugby ratings anchor gives 54.5%. Their average is 54.8%, displayed as 55%, so the final winner remains a marginal home lean.
The margin formula disagrees, returning Australia by 1.25 points. Argentina by one is therefore an explicit analyst adjustment to keep the projected score aligned with the probability-led call, not the model’s raw margin prediction. Australia’s returning starters and four-win streak make an away win entirely plausible; the 0–6-point band describes a close home-win scenario, not a confidence interval or protection against that upset.
Argentina by one on a marginal home probability; Australia have the stronger selection and form case.
The latest five-Test records favour Australia; Argentina’s four defeats were all by six to nine points.
The last six head-to-head Tests are level, with no automatic bounce-back bonus awarded.
World Rugby rating points for Argentina and Australia, effective 31 August 2026.
The raw margin favours Australia by 1.25; Argentina by one is a disclosed analyst adjustment.
Tom Wright is named at fullback for his 50th Australian Test.