Toulouse’s five straight Top 14 wins and the two recent heavy wins over Exeter make the home case. The venue is Stadium de Toulouse, confirmed by Exeter’s announcement, rather than the provider’s default Ernest-Wallon listing. Exeter have named Hooper at lock and Wimbush on the wing with Feyi-Waboso still managing his hamstring.

Exeter’s 34–28 win over Newcastle came after conceding 45 to Gloucester and 40 at Bath. Toulouse’s complete current selection remains unverified here, so there is no invented Dupont–Ntamack lineup or personnel score. Slade, Jenkins and the selected Exeter pack are a credible counter if the home side’s combinations do not click. Scorecard net +7; raw house home probability 77.5%, raw home margin 8.95. The 4–14-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-06-13 to 2026-10-11: median 59 points. The projected 59 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 9-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.