Pau’s attacking form earns the home call: they have won three straight Top 14 games, scoring 39 against La Rochelle, 43 at Vannes and 35 against Castres. Souverbie and Desperes are the selected halfbacks, with Attissogbe behind them. The scoring evidence is real, though the quality of opposition and changed combinations keep the margin restrained.

Leicester have won their last two PREM matches and just put 38 on Gloucester. Whiteley and Searle start, with Steward at fullback and van Poortvliet and Woodward among the replacements. The two retrieved H2H games were in 2019/20 and split one apiece, so they receive no current score. Scorecard net +4; raw house home probability 72.7%, raw home margin 6.40. The 1–11-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-06-06 to 2026-10-10: median 72.5 points. The projected 74 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 6-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.