Leinster’s selected side is the case for the away lean: Porter, Sheehan and Furlong start, Ryan and McCarthy lock the scrum, and Keenan sits behind Henshaw and Ringrose. Clermont have lost three of their last five Top 14 games, although the one-point Bordeaux defeat was competitive. The model makes Leinster only a marginal favourite despite a much more imposing personnel comparison.

Clermont can make this uncomfortable through Jauneau and Plummer and a home crowd. Gunne has responsibility at scrum-half, while Carbery returns on Leinster’s bench after a long injury absence. A narrow model margin should not be mistaken for a promise that this pack advantage turns into immediate scoreboard control. Scorecard net -8; raw house home probability 48.6%, raw home margin -3.80. The 1–9-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-06-06 to 2026-10-10: median 44 points. The projected 44 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 4-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.