Scarlets have a narrow current result to build on after beating Benetton 27–26. Davies and Costelow start together, with Williams and Roberts in midfield and Elias, Hawkins and Eddie James among the replacements. Newcastle have named Dalziel at ten, Elliott at nine and competitive debutants Moreno and Jackson.

Newcastle lost by only five to Leicester and six at Exeter, so an opening three-game losing run understates their recent competitiveness. Hodge returns and Connon offers an experienced replacement playmaker. The visitors’ route is to turn pressure into points before the Scarlets’ selected halfbacks can manage the game. Scorecard net +6; raw house home probability 76.0%, raw home margin 8.10. The 3–13-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-05-09 to 2026-10-11: median 63 points. The projected 64 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 8-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.